Jesse Litsch, Time to start taking notice?

[Doughhead]

Personally, I don't think there is much of a difference long term between Litsch and Marcum.

I think you sell Marcum short. His change-up is borderline elite, and that makes him a good candidate to be a very, very good and consistent major league pitcher. You don't have to be a hard thrower to be successful (the list of examples is endless) and Marcum, even at a young age has shown the ability to locate and mix his pitches very well. He's also a great athlete and a tremendous competitor. I think he has a lot in common with James Shields, and I think both guys will be excellent pitchers for years to come.

On to Litsch...I was at the game today and one couldn't help but be impressed with him. He had a nice little breakout last year when called on in a pinch, but he looked like a gocky kid, and his stuff wasn't the kind you drool over. If Casey Janssen hadn't been injured in ST, Litsch would be twirling these gems for the AAA Syracuse Chiefs.

As it is, he's up with the big team and really contributing. You'd be hard-pressed to find a more productive fifth starter anywhere in baseball. What blew me away today was how efficient he was. I believe he had thrown 81 pitches through 8 innings--that's unreal. He doesn't have the stuff of a Halladay, McGowan, or Burnett, but he sure seems to know it and--to use a worn-out baseball catch phrase--plays within himself. He plays to contact and lets his defense make plays behind him. He works quickly and seems to have a lot of poise and confidence for a guy his age and with his limited experience and marginal "stuff." The success of the entire Jays pitching staff leads me to believe that the catchers and pitching coach are really on the ball. It also looks like Litsch is learning a lot from Halladay, as his newfound focus on control and pitch efficiency is certainly reminiscent of Doc's approach. The lack of walks--he broke Jimmy Key's team record today for most consecutive innings without allowing one--is obviously very impressive.

I think today will be the high-point of Jesse Litsch's season, and I'm sure he'll take his lumps along the way. But watching him today, he just looked to be in total command, a much more mature pitcher than the one we saw last season. I've gotta believe that the Jays would be thrilled if he could post a 4.00 ERA and 1.25 WHIP--but the way he's looked through April and most of May, I think those numbers are well within his abilities this year.

[mweir145]

Personally, I don't think there is much of a difference long term between Litsch and Marcum.

I think you sell Marcum short. His change-up is borderline elite, and that makes him a good candidate to be a very, very good and consistent major league pitcher. You don't have to be a hard thrower to be successful (the list of examples is endless) and Marcum, even at a young age has shown the ability to locate and mix his pitches very well. He's also a great athlete and a tremendous competitor. I think he has a lot in common with James Shields, and I think both guys will be excellent pitchers for years to come.

Marcum is a good pitcher, but he isn't nearly as good as he's showing right now. His propensity to give up a lot of home runs will catch up to him sooner rather than later, and his league low .186 BABIP can't sustain itself at that level for very long. I understand that he has a great changeup, as well as the fact that you don't have to throw hard to be elite, but Marcum simply isn't that kind of pitcher (an elite one). I still have faith he'll have a very good, long career, but I don't anticipate he'll be among the best pitchers in the AL by the year's end in terms of ERA (Halladay, Beckett, Sabathia).

On to Litsch...I was at the game today and one couldn't help but be impressed with him. He had a nice little breakout last year when called on in a pinch, but he looked like a gocky kid, and his stuff wasn't the kind you drool over. If Casey Janssen hadn't been injured in ST, Litsch would be twirling these gems for the AAA Syracuse Chiefs.

Jesse Litsch wasn't that good last year for the Jays, he was mostly lucky to have the ERA he did. He had 50 K and 36 B in 111 IP which really didn't line up with his minor league stats at all (7.69 K/9, 1.57 BB/9). This year he is doing far better with 34 K and 8 BB in 58 IP. His sub 4 ERA and 1.15 WHIP are very much in line with those stats.

As it is, he's up with the big team and really contributing. You'd be hard-pressed to find a more productive fifth starter anywhere in baseball. What blew me away today was how efficient he was. I believe he had thrown 81 pitches through 8 innings--that's unreal.

When you throw strikes agaisnt a bad hitting team that swings early in counts and gets themselves out, that tends to happen. Josh Towers had many starts like that throughout his Jays career. Jesse Litsch shouldn't be mistaken for Josh Towers of course, though.

He doesn't have the stuff of a Halladay, McGowan, or Burnett, but he sure seems to know it and--to use a worn-out baseball catch phrase--plays within himself. He plays to contact and lets his defense make plays behind him. He works quickly and seems to have a lot of poise and confidence for a guy his age and with his limited experience and marginal "stuff." The success of the entire Jays pitching staff leads me to believe that the catchers and pitching coach are really on the ball. It also looks like Litsch is learning a lot from Halladay, as his newfound focus on control and pitch efficiency is certainly reminiscent of Doc's approach. The lack of walks--he broke Jimmy Key's team record today for most consecutive innings without allowing one--is obviously very impressive.

I don't know about all that, though it would be nice to think Doc has that kind of effect on others. I just think Litsch is pitching just the way he is capable of, and pretty much exactly the same way he pitched in the minors.

I think today will be the high-point of Jesse Litsch's season, and I'm sure he'll take his lumps along the way. But watching him today, he just looked to be in total command, a much more mature pitcher than the one we saw last season. I've gotta believe that the Jays would be thrilled if he could post a 4.00 ERA and 1.25 WHIP--but the way he's looked through April and most of May, I think those numbers are well within his abilities this year.

Litsch likely isn't going to face as poor a lineup as he faced today again this season, so this very well could be his high point of the season. And yes, I agree, if he keeps going on walkless streaks like he has been...a 4.00 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP are definitely within his capabilities.

Jesse Litsch's projected stats going into the year:

2008 Bill James 7 W, 9 L, 4.38 ERA, 148.0 IP, 160 H, 72ER, 18 HR, 41 BB, 92 K
2008 Marcel 7 W, 8 L, 4.15 ERA, 115.0 IP, 116 H, 53 ER, 13 HR, 38 BB, 69 K
2008 MINER 8 W 10 L, 4.30 ERA, 162.0 IP, 157 H, 77 ER, 18 HR, 45 BB, 102 K
2008 ZiPS 13 W 12 L, 4.43 ERA, 187.0 IP, 208 H, 92 ER, 24 HR, 36 BB, 92 K


Marcum's as a comparison:

2008 Bill James 9 W, 11 L, 4.38 ERA, 183.0 IP, 186 H, 89 ER, 32 HR, 55 BB, 152 K
2008 Marcel 9 W, 6 L, 4.33 ERA, 135.0 IP, 132 H, 65 ER, 20 HR, 48 BB, 105 K
2008 MINER 9 W 7 L, 4.27 ERA, 156.0 IP, 155 H, 74 ER, 22 HR, 47 BB, 131 K
2008 ZiPS 8 W, 9 L, 4.67 ERA, 162.0 IP, 169 H, 84 ER, 29 HR, 43 BB, 121 K