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Lee vs Volquez - Who crashes first?

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Re: Lee vs Volquez - Who crashes first?

Postby Yoda » Wed May 14, 2008 4:15 pm

NYMetsIn2k4 wrote:when everybody says Volquez is gonna fall off, they reference his high WHIP, which is understandable, but how come people arent predicting Lincecum to fall off then too? Volquez has a 1.26 whip, and Lincecum has a 1.25, but have sub 2.00 eras, 50+ Ks and around a 10 k/9, but yet Volquez is assumed to fall flat on his face. why is this? is it bc Lincecums been touted as a stud? and Volquez has always been on the fine line aka great stuff, no control? i think thats gotta be what it is bc their numbers are so similar, both have the ability to allow base runners, but get outta jams bc of their electric stuff... yet everyone says Volquez is gonna finish with a mid-upper 3 era... why is this? im just curious to find out why... if Volquez has harnessed his control, why cant he finish with Lincecum-esque numbers??


Lincecum > Volquez. Personally, I don't even think they are remotely close.

Also Lincecum has a 3 BB9 and pitches in one of the best pitchers parks in the league. Volquez is around 5 BB9.
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Re: Lee vs Volquez - Who crashes first?

Postby NYMetsIn2k4 » Wed May 14, 2008 4:17 pm

Yoda wrote:
NYMetsIn2k4 wrote:when everybody says Volquez is gonna fall off, they reference his high WHIP, which is understandable, but how come people arent predicting Lincecum to fall off then too? Volquez has a 1.26 whip, and Lincecum has a 1.25, but have sub 2.00 eras, 50+ Ks and around a 10 k/9, but yet Volquez is assumed to fall flat on his face. why is this? is it bc Lincecums been touted as a stud? and Volquez has always been on the fine line aka great stuff, no control? i think thats gotta be what it is bc their numbers are so similar, both have the ability to allow base runners, but get outta jams bc of their electric stuff... yet everyone says Volquez is gonna finish with a mid-upper 3 era... why is this? im just curious to find out why... if Volquez has harnessed his control, why cant he finish with Lincecum-esque numbers??


Lincecum > Volquez. Personally, I don't even think they are remotely close.

Also Lincecum has a 3 BB9 and pitches in one of the best pitchers parks in the league. Volquez is around 5 BB9.


haha, i had a feeling youd be the first to respond and defend your boy timmy. your reasoning is sound, very sound, but id still like to hear others
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Re: Lee vs Volquez - Who crashes first?

Postby Yoda » Wed May 14, 2008 4:22 pm

NYMetsIn2k4 wrote:
Yoda wrote:
NYMetsIn2k4 wrote:when everybody says Volquez is gonna fall off, they reference his high WHIP, which is understandable, but how come people arent predicting Lincecum to fall off then too? Volquez has a 1.26 whip, and Lincecum has a 1.25, but have sub 2.00 eras, 50+ Ks and around a 10 k/9, but yet Volquez is assumed to fall flat on his face. why is this? is it bc Lincecums been touted as a stud? and Volquez has always been on the fine line aka great stuff, no control? i think thats gotta be what it is bc their numbers are so similar, both have the ability to allow base runners, but get outta jams bc of their electric stuff... yet everyone says Volquez is gonna finish with a mid-upper 3 era... why is this? im just curious to find out why... if Volquez has harnessed his control, why cant he finish with Lincecum-esque numbers??


Lincecum > Volquez. Personally, I don't even think they are remotely close.

Also Lincecum has a 3 BB9 and pitches in one of the best pitchers parks in the league. Volquez is around 5 BB9.


haha, i had a feeling youd be the first to respond and defend your boy timmy. your reasoning is sound, very sound, but id still like to hear others


Nothing Volquez has done up until the hot start of this year suggests that he is this good. Everyone knew he had great stuff and that is the reason why he was such a highly regarded prospect. However, he has been getting by with below par command. Pitchers who can maintain near 5 BB9 with long, sustained success are very few and far in between.

We'll see. It is still early and if Volquez can maintain his K rate the same then he won't completely fall off. However, it is nearly impossible for him to maintain his HR rate. 1 in 48.1 IP.
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Re: Lee vs Volquez - Who crashes first?

Postby AquaMan2342 » Wed May 14, 2008 4:22 pm

A short rebuttal to those who think Lee will crash first....

His fastball velocity has increased almost three MPH, and given the fact that it has increased movement (check his pitch f/x at mlb.com), he has shown great command of it. He's also been mixing a change into his three main pitches, and it has been greatly successful so far.

Volquez meanwhile is averaging almost 6 walks per 9 innings and also has an unusually high ground ball rate given he doesn't rely on a sinker ball to get outs. I would expect his fly ball rate to rise, and knowing he pitches in Cincinnati leads me to believe this combination adds up to him giving up a lot more runs than he is right now.
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Re: Lee vs Volquez - Who crashes first?

Postby sblinyy » Wed May 14, 2008 5:57 pm

jfg wrote:
RAmst23 wrote:Even if Lee continues from this point on with a 4.50 ERA, he'll still finish the season around 3.50 (Adding 150 IP to his total to give him 200 for the season).


Everybody keeps saying this but the fact is if he's putting up 4.50 for the rest of the season he's not a great fantasy play. So what, if he finishes at 3.50? He won't be worth too much from here on out. But, I think he puts up more along the lines of 3.00-3.50 for the rest of the year which is very useful especially if he keeps the walks down. Then, he'd finish around 2.00 to 2.50 which again is meaningless to fantasy owners other than the fact that he'll go way too early in the drafts next year.


The origional question was who will end up with the better stats at the end of the season, so what Ramst23 said makes good sense.
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Re: Lee vs Volquez - Who crashes first?

Postby thehotcorner » Wed May 14, 2008 7:02 pm

Volquez has an excellent .87 HR/9 through 402 minor league innings. Maybe his HR rate this yr isn't all just luck.

That being said I think Volquez is definitely the more volatile of the two. Not only is he more likely to crash and burn completely but he's also more likely to continue the torrid pace. Cliffs been around a while and we know what to expect from him and its definitely not what he's doing now but he's also probably not gonna stink it up like volquez might.
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Re: Lee vs Volquez - Who crashes first?

Postby bobbing_headz » Wed May 14, 2008 7:12 pm

Lee will almost certainly crash first. Of course by "crash" it's not like he's gonna be terrible, not at all. I predict an era around 3.3-3.4 and maybe 160 Ks. He's been around the mid 3s in ERA before in his career. I'm a little skeptical about the sudden shoot up in Ks but I guess it's the improved fastball. Firstly Lee's BABIP is like .220 which will certainly go up and secondly there's no way Lee maintains his ridiculous 11 K/BB ratio. Sure Lee has never thrown too many walks but at the best I'd expect maybe a 4-5.

Now Volquez won't crash first but I don't think he finishes better than Lee. Even if he manages to shake off the walk issues (which will eventually come back to bite him) I don't think he has the stamina to finish the season strong. I'm predicting a Post-ASB collapse if it doesn't happen before that. I'd predict somewhere around 3.8-3.9 era and maybe 180-190 Ks, not terrible by any means. I mean it's a scary thing when your ERA is currently lower than your WHIP. Volquez is getting too lucky with his baserunners (his strand rate is off the charts) and I don't think he can mantain his 100+ pitch counts through the whole season, at least not this year.
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Re: Lee vs Volquez - Who crashes first?

Postby bobbing_headz » Wed May 14, 2008 7:14 pm

AquaMan2342 wrote:Volquez meanwhile is averaging almost 6 walks per 9 innings and also has an unusually high ground ball rate given he doesn't rely on a sinker ball to get outs. I would expect his fly ball rate to rise, and knowing he pitches in Cincinnati leads me to believe this combination adds up to him giving up a lot more runs than he is right now.


I can see where the huge GB% comes from since all Volquez's pitches, especially his fastball have a lot of movement on them. I don't disagree that the HRs will go up but I think he'll retain his high GB percentage.
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Re: Lee vs Volquez - Who crashes first?

Postby Rollotommasi » Wed May 14, 2008 7:38 pm

Lee BABIP 0.226

Volquez BABIP 0.287
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Re: Lee vs Volquez - Who crashes first?

Postby bobbing_headz » Wed May 14, 2008 7:43 pm

Rollotommasi wrote:Lee BABIP 0.226

Volquez BABIP 0.287


Exactly
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