Lee vs Volquez - Who crashes first?

[Tiki1311]

Both of these guys have been pitching at unsustainable levels. Who do you think comes back to Earth first and who ends the season with better stats? I am a Volquez owner and have been reluctant to trade him cuz people don't think he is for real. However, I've run across 3 or 4 articles that talk about how nasty his stuff is and what great upside he has.

Lee on the otherhand seems to be doing it all with pinpoint control. Personally, I'd prefer to have Volquez over Lee for the long run. What do you guys think?

[The Cow]

neither

The Cow

[AquaMan2342]

Volquez

Walks a lot of guys. Pitches at the Great American Launching Pad. His team sucks. Did I mention he's a great sell-high right now?

[Yoda]

Volquez crashes first. He has more dominant stuff but very spotty command and those BBs will eventually catch up to him. Also pitches in a bandbox and as the league gets more familiar with him, they will start figuring him out. The ball park certainly will hurt him also when the weather warms up. Finally, he has never pitched over 170 IP so you have to worry about his stamina as well. Knowing what we know about Dusty, he will run out of gas in September.

I don't think he will be completely useless but I still see him finishing somewhere in the 3.50-3.75 ERA with 1.30 WHIP and about 8 K9 which is still very good.

[RAmst23]

Depends what you mean by crash. I'm fairly confident that Lee's ERA will spike above 1 at some point. The only problem is, it's hard to find a hole anywhere in his stats. 4 BB's in 50 IP? An 11:1 K/BB rate? Even if Lee continues from this point on with a 4.50 ERA, he'll still finish the season around 3.50 (Adding 150 IP to his total to give him 200 for the season).

I think the stamina issue comes into play for Volquez. The weather gets warmer, he becomes a little more tired and starts to give up more fly balls. Walks + Long Flies = Lots more runs scored. He won't become worthless, but won't be very valuable come August/September.

[NYMetsIn2k4]

i think lee crashes first. cliff lee has been in the league for a while and never posted numbers even close to this. as far as i know, he hasnt developed any significant new pitches or his 'stuff' hasnt gotten better. granted, esteban loaiza did something like this a few yrs back, but i dont buy lee doing it this season. volquez is young and in my opinion he isnt a fluke, hes breaking out. do i think he keeps a sub 2.00 era? no. but i do think he has a low 3.00 era plus about 9 k/9, yes! i may be the minority here bc of his high walk rate, but he has 5 pitches if im not mistaken and electric stuff. he is considered a fly ball pitcher, but can strike out a bunch of hitters so the great american bandbox wont kill him. hell have an outting or 2 where we question his control, but hell have a lot more 7 ip, 10 k, 2 earned performances to outweight the bad ones. just my opinion... do i think hes a sell high? for the right price, of course, but do i think youll get the 'right price'? prolly not

[A Fleshner Fantasy]

I would say Lee. He has proven over the past few years that he just simply isn't this good, whereas Volquez has been a prospect, so we dont really know how good he is. Maybe he is this good. Anyway, I don't think Volquez crashes until he is shut down for the season to keep him innings down.

[jfg]

Even if Lee continues from this point on with a 4.50 ERA, he'll still finish the season around 3.50 (Adding 150 IP to his total to give him 200 for the season).

Everybody keeps saying this but the fact is if he's putting up 4.50 for the rest of the season he's not a great fantasy play. So what, if he finishes at 3.50? He won't be worth too much from here on out. But, I think he puts up more along the lines of 3.00-3.50 for the rest of the year which is very useful especially if he keeps the walks down. Then, he'd finish around 2.00 to 2.50 which again is meaningless to fantasy owners other than the fact that he'll go way too early in the drafts next year.

[horatio]

I just wish Harang would get as much run support as Volquez has.

[NYMetsIn2k4]

when everybody says Volquez is gonna fall off, they reference his high WHIP, which is understandable, but how come people arent predicting Lincecum to fall off then too? Volquez has a 1.26 whip, and Lincecum has a 1.25, but have sub 2.00 eras, 50+ Ks and around a 10 k/9, but yet Volquez is assumed to fall flat on his face. why is this? is it bc Lincecums been touted as a stud? and Volquez has always been on the fine line aka great stuff, no control? i think thats gotta be what it is bc their numbers are so similar, both have the ability to allow base runners, but get outta jams bc of their electric stuff... yet everyone says Volquez is gonna finish with a mid-upper 3 era... why is this? im just curious to find out why... if Volquez has harnessed his control, why cant he finish with Lincecum-esque numbers??