by Wharton93 » Tue May 13, 2008 8:37 pm
He probably can not stay healthy---he's already tweaked his groin and plays for a team that he can not hit at DH. He's having an absolutely terrible May, which was polar opposite of his great April. His strikeout to walk ratio is pretty scary and could be pointing to other problems. He's taken the past 2 Septembers off. If you figure he'll get something on the order of 450 ABs this year (483, 449 the past 2 years) and since he just happens to have approximately 150 ABs---you could simply triple his ABs and triple his numbers and end up at .304 24-75-78 which is close to what he did in 2007. I think he can get slightly more counting stats than that but he's at risk of a drop in AVG big time. I do not see 30-100-100.
He's the kind of player that, if you drafted him--be happy and possibly try to sell high. If you didn't draft him, then I certainly would not trade for him. We're roughly 1/4th of the way through the season and he's probably already 1/3rd of the way to where he will end up---not the type of guy to pick up.