Edison Volquez Trade Value

[Zhangman1]

He could go Jered Weaver circa. 2006 and have a 2.5 ERA and be a solid option from here on out. I don't think he lasts till playoffs in Sept so I'd sell him for a proven contributor.

[The Cow]

When are you guys going to learn? I try to educate, I try and I try and I try, but yet you don't listen? One thing you need to understand and that is that The Cow is seldom if ever wrong. So when I say Volquez is LEGIT you can book it! Just book it! Volquez 20 game winner sub 3 ERA big time K's solid WHIP. The wins may be a stretch, but he will pitch like a 20 game winner. Hard to predict wins. My eyes don't lie, I have seen a dominant SP, that can still be had cheap. Considering some of the supposed buy lows or sell highs in this thread. For instance the sell 'high" where the owner deals away Volquez AND Markakis for Johan that supposedly was a sell high, but if Volquez puts up numbers darn close to Johan's and then you throw in Markakis a top 24 player last year that somehow is a good sell high??? I say you guys are high!!! Give me some of what you are smoking.

The Cow

[Yoda]

When are you guys going to learn? I try to educate, I try and I try and I try, but yet you don't listen? One thing you need to understand and that is that The Cow is seldom if ever wrong. So when I say Volquez is LEGIT you can book it! Just book it! Volquez 20 game winner sub 3 ERA big time K's solid WHIP. The wins may be a stretch, but he will pitch like a 20 game winner. Hard to predict wins. My eyes don't lie, I have seen a dominant SP, that can still be had cheap. Considering some of the supposed buy lows or sell highs in this thread. For instance the sell 'high" where the owner deals away Volquez AND Markakis for Johan that supposedly was a sell high, but if Volquez puts up numbers darn close to Johan's and then you throw in Markakis a top 24 player last year that somehow is a good sell high??? I say you guys are high!!! Give me some of what you are smoking.

The Cow

I'm not trying to be a jerk but I don't think I've ever seen your predictions come true. If you have then I'd like to see some evidence.

[The Cow]

When are you guys going to learn? I try to educate, I try and I try and I try, but yet you don't listen? One thing you need to understand and that is that The Cow is seldom if ever wrong. So when I say Volquez is LEGIT you can book it! Just book it! Volquez 20 game winner sub 3 ERA big time K's solid WHIP. The wins may be a stretch, but he will pitch like a 20 game winner. Hard to predict wins. My eyes don't lie, I have seen a dominant SP, that can still be had cheap. Considering some of the supposed buy lows or sell highs in this thread. For instance the sell 'high" where the owner deals away Volquez AND Markakis for Johan that supposedly was a sell high, but if Volquez puts up numbers darn close to Johan's and then you throw in Markakis a top 24 player last year that somehow is a good sell high??? I say you guys are high!!! Give me some of what you are smoking.

The Cow

I'm not trying to be a jerk but I don't think I've ever seen your predictions come true. If you have then I'd like to see some evidence.

I'm just joking, sometimes I'm right, sometimes wrong, but I like to think I am more right than wrong. I say hold onto young Mr. Volquez he is dealing. One of the best change ups I have seen from a young guy and the movement on his fastball excellent. If I were to guess why Volquez is having such success, I would say its the change up. Years past he probably did not throw it as well.

The Cow

The Cow

[mkultra]

For instance the sell 'high" where the owner deals away Volquez AND Markakis for Johan that supposedly was a sell high, but if Volquez puts up numbers darn close to Johan's and then you throw in Markakis a top 24 player last year that somehow is a good sell high???

Granted, each start makes it look less and less like "sell high", but you have to look at track record if it's a keeper league. Volquez got a fair bit of preseason hype, but he's outproducing even those expectations. Still, we don't know what kind of innings limit he's working under, if he can maintain this pace, or if he can possibly repeat it next year. With Johan, it's a given that he's going to be a top-5 pitcher for the next several years.

[The Cow]

For instance the sell 'high" where the owner deals away Volquez AND Markakis for Johan that supposedly was a sell high, but if Volquez puts up numbers darn close to Johan's and then you throw in Markakis a top 24 player last year that somehow is a good sell high???

Granted, each start makes it look less and less like "sell high", but you have to look at track record if it's a keeper league. Volquez got a fair bit of preseason hype, but he's outproducing even those expectations. Still, we don't know what kind of innings limit he's working under, if he can maintain this pace, or if he can possibly repeat it next year. With Johan, it's a given that he's going to be a top-5 pitcher for the next several years.

Well I don't think it is a given that any pitcher will be a top 5 SP for the next several years as you say Johan will be. I mean look at Peavy he is getting his elbow checked, Chris Carpenter he was a top 5 guy before he got hurt etc.. Pitchers just get hurt too often to say Johan will be a top 5 SP for the next several years. I think a better bet is that the throw in that is Markakis, will a top 10 OFer for the next several years. Markakis is by far the safest and most dependable player being dealt. In a keeper I doubt I deal Markakis straight up for Johan, let alone add in Volquez. IMO SPs are found not drafted, at least not with high picks. Too easy to find a good SP on the wire or late in the draft, Lee, Marcum, Volquez etc.... Harder to find a guy like Markakis on the wire or late in the draft.

The Cow

[BillyHallDisciple]

I agree with that last point. A guy in our league paid $37 for Peavy in our keeper auction and I have Volquez for $4. That kind of thing happens with pitchers a lot more than it does with hitters.

As for an innings limit, folks need to remember we're dealing with Dusty Baker here. I'd be surprised if Volquez has an innings limit this year.

[astrojester]

In a 10 team 5X5 league, I just packaged Volquez with Hamilton and Pierre for Crawford and Sizemore. If the trade doesn't get vetoed, this will be my new team:

C - Soto
1B - Howard
2B - Utley
3B - MCab
SS - M. Young
OF - Crawford
OF - Sizemore
OF - Beltran
Util - C. Lee
Util - Francoeur
Bench - Bourn
Bench - Escobar
DL - V. Wells

SP - Webb, Zambrano, Maine, McGowan, Billingsley, Cain, Cueto
RP - K Rod, F. Cordero, Wilson, Acosta
DL - Soriano

As good as Volquez is, those BB are going to catch up with him at some point. Hamilton was tough to part with tho. Pierre is Pierre. But I would make this deal every time.

[acon44]

I keep hearing the whole "the BBs will catch up to him at some point" theory both on here and from many of the so called "experts" on yahoo.

While obviously it is not good to BB guys and in GENERAL that means a pitcher will run into problems down the road, I don't think it's really a huge concern here.

The guy has pitched 54 innings so far. It's not like his walks have gotten worse lately, so he obviously struggles with command at time. BUT, the point is that even though guys are on base due to the walks sometimes, people still CANNOT hit him. He has allowed 39 hits in 54ip. Guys are batting .202 against him. When a guy has as dominant as stuff as this kid, they can just get away with walking people more then other pitchers. Do I think he can keep up this pace over a full season? Probably not as really nobody does keep a 1 era all year, but at the same time I don't think that the BB issue is really as huge of a concern as some people have made it out to be. What is it going to take 100ip to say, well maybe he can walk people and still dominate?

Also nobody talks about what happens if he starts to harness his control like many young pitchers do? Can he get even better? If you cut down half his walks his whip would probably be around 1.00.

My point is that it hasn't been 2 starts from him at this point, its been 9 starts, and with that sample it is evident that he is able to be extremely successful even while walking guys.

Now the innings limit, and how he holds up in general late in the season is a real concern. Some guys just break down when their innings are increased, some can handle it from early on. He will be semi-risky due to this all year, and in a h2h may be worth even less due to the playoff run at the end of the year.

[The Cow]

I keep hearing the whole "the BBs will catch up to him at some point" theory both on here and from many of the so called "experts" on yahoo.

While obviously it is not good to BB guys and in GENERAL that means a pitcher will run into problems down the road, I don't think it's really a huge concern here.

The guy has pitched 54 innings so far. It's not like his walks have gotten worse lately, so he obviously struggles with command at time. BUT, the point is that even though guys are on base due to the walks sometimes, people still CANNOT hit him. He has allowed 39 hits in 54ip. Guys are batting .202 against him. When a guy has as dominant as stuff as this kid, they can just get away with walking people more then other pitchers. Do I think he can keep up this pace over a full season? Probably not as really nobody does keep a 1 era all year, but at the same time I don't think that the BB issue is really as huge of a concern as some people have made it out to be. What is it going to take 100ip to say, well maybe he can walk people and still dominate?

Also nobody talks about what happens if he starts to harness his control like many young pitchers do? Can he get even better? If you cut down half his walks his whip would probably be around 1.00.

My point is that it hasn't been 2 starts from him at this point, its been 9 starts, and with that sample it is evident that he is able to be extremely successful even while walking guys.

Now the innings limit, and how he holds up in general late in the season is a real concern. Some guys just break down when their innings are increased, some can handle it from early on. He will be semi-risky due to this all year, and in a h2h may be worth even less due to the playoff run at the end of the year.

Good points. I will add that Volquez reminds me of a young Kerry Wood or Carlos Zambrano, two guys that walked a ton of batters, but still put up good numbers. I was always a big fan of Kerry Woods, I thought he had some of the best stuff in the game. Volquez I feel the same way about, except Volquez has a nasty change whereas Wood nasty curve/slider. Maybe Volquez is able to win 15 games though.

The Cow