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Postby Coppernob » Thu Feb 26, 2004 4:30 pm

OK, so am slowling learning baseball and i'm tackling my first excel spreadsheet for Yahoo h2h league.

This is my problem. All the ranking programs don't tell me how the assign weights to their ranking systems for each stat. I have no probs with the single categories like H, R, BB etc but how do i give a weight to AVG, WHIP, etc?

I was thinking that i need to find league averages for each stat and then rate accordingly. i.e. if the MLB league batting average is .270
then a player that hits 270 gets 0, 285 or higher +1, 300 or more +2 315 or more +3 and of course negative as well.

My problem is where do i find league averages for AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS ERA, WHIP and k/9 for 2003?
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Postby Budworth22 » Thu Feb 26, 2004 5:01 pm

You might try espn.com
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Postby Coppernob » Thu Feb 26, 2004 5:10 pm

ESPN, MLB.com, TSN etc will tell me even how many times on average they go to the restroom, HOWEVER i cannot seem to find MLB league averages! Maybe i cannot set them up right!
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Postby Broncmet724 » Thu Feb 26, 2004 5:18 pm

I never found a legue average for those, so what you'll have to do is write down all the info for the players you want to know this about and then using Excel ,using the "average formula", get the average for the stat you are looking for.
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Postby Arlo » Thu Feb 26, 2004 5:43 pm

Welcome to the game (and to the Cafe)! ;-D

Two points:

I wouldn't go with league averages, but with the players you expect to be drafted in your league. Stats of players who won't have an impact on the fantasy game might skew your numbers.

When comparing non-cumulative stats, you have to weight them correctly, factoring in at bats, plate appearances, innings pitched, and so on. For example, in a 12-team league Manny Ramirez' .325 average will help a team more than Barry Bonds' .341 thanks to Ramirez' greater number of at bats.
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Postby Coppernob » Thu Feb 26, 2004 6:07 pm

Arlo wrote:Welcome to the game (and to the Cafe)! ;-D

Two points:

I wouldn't go with league averages, but with the players you expect to be drafted in your league. Stats of players who won't have an impact on the fantasy game might skew your numbers.

When comparing non-cumulative stats, you have to weight them correctly, factoring in at bats, plate appearances, innings pitched, and so on. For example, in a 12-team league Manny Ramirez' .325 average will help a team more than Barry Bonds' .341 thanks to Ramirez' greater number of at bats.


Thanks. Yes, i now realize it is easier if i download the stats into excel and use it to determine the average.

Also with regards to weghing the average that is a useful suggestion.

One of my h2h is an 8x8 so coorect me if i'm wrong but the way to go about this is to weigh each as 1/8th of my final ranking. Would the following be logical?
I rank the hitters in each of the 8 categories and then average their rank.
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Postby jonnyblack » Thu Feb 26, 2004 6:10 pm

When I start my sheet, I take three year averages of the scoring categories. Then I put the top 40 players in each of the categories (Obviously some are top 40 in more than one category, A-Rod and Sheffield were the only ones to qualify in all 5 categories for the 2003 season). From this I come up with a list of players about as long as all of the rosters in a 12 team 5x5 league. I will then add in any names (rookies, sleepers, etc.) that aren't there. Then move them around accordingly, comparing fantasy stats along the way.

Finally, taking such considerations including, but not limited to injuries, potential, gut feelings, etc. I continuously tweak the list. Stat Projection sites sometimes fail in accuracy considering the above factors, so your list should be more solid than, let's say, Yahoo pre-rankings :).
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Postby Mordraken » Thu Feb 26, 2004 7:07 pm

Arlo is right on with his suggestions. However, weigthing can lead to some very strange results - especially in areas that are squed by some "exceptional" results. For example - Alex Sanchez' 55 stolen bases make him exponentially higher than the #4/5 OF with stolen bases... but that doesn't mean he's REALLY that much better. I generally drop the weighting for SB down a notch (like 50%) since they are not very reliable - especially in HTH leagues.

Unless you're going into an auction and want "hard & fast" numbers to draft with (i.e. Barry Bonds is worth $40 - I will never pay more than $40), here's what I'd suggest you do:

1) Get a complete list of players with the relevant stats. One way to do this is to use the projections at rototimes.com or to get the 2003 stats from Yahoo (you can copy & paste them into Excel, although that takes some time).

2) Find the "baseline" for your league. The baseline is the stats of the worst starting player at any position. You do this for each stat individually. Anyone who is projected to steal less that 5 bases at the 3B position will "hurt" your team; anyone who will steal more will help it.

3) Now Grade the stats. If you're doing a 5X5, you should have 5 grades. How you decide on those is up to you, but you should do it for each of the players. Anyone under the baseline gets an "F". Anyone ON the baseline gets an "E". The top 2-3 players at a position get an "A". Everyone in between gets a B, C, or D.

4) Change the grades for numbers. A = 10, B = 7, C = 5, D = 3, E = 1, F = 0.

6) Rank your players.

Here's an example using the projections from Rototimes and the 3B position with only 3 categories - R, RBI, SB. Note I removed Aaron Boone from the projections since he's gone for the year.

#2) Baseline of Runs = 80; Baseline for RBIs = 85, Baseline for SB = 5

#3) For RBIs - the top guy is Mike Lowell, projected to have 114 RBIs next year. I'll ranke him an "A". Actually, there are three guys projected to have over 100 RBIs... I'll rank them all the same "A". There are 2 guys in the 95-100 range - I'll rank them B. The C group will be the 88-90, and the rest I'll rank D.

Stolen bases are different. Here the baseline is 5.. but the top is 15 - 300% better than the baseline (compared to 35% for RBIs). I rank the top guy - Hinske - an "A", Rolen, Koski, Glaus & Wigginton a B (for the 10-12 range) and so on.

#4) I convert the letter grades to numbers and get the following:
NAME Total
Scott Rolen - 27
Eric Chavez - 22
Eric Hinske - 20
Troy Glaus - 19
Morgan Ensberg - 13
Mike Lowell - 13
Corey Koskie - 10
Hank Blalock - 10
Aramis Ramirez - 8
Ty Wigginton - 7
Shea Hillenbrand - 7
Casey Blake - 6

Surprises there: Ensberg is ranked 5th on the list, well behind Hinske. Why? Head to head, Hinske is projected to score a few more runs, get the same RBIs, but is also projected to have double the SBs. It's that which puts him over the top.

Case Blake makes it into the list (ranked #31 on this site) because he's expected to score about 80 runs (more than the baseline), drive in about 70 RBIs (15 less than the baseline) but steal 6 bases (more than the baseline). So while he'll hurt you in one category (RBIs) he'll help you in 2 (Rs and SBs). Since you win the pool by winning the most categories, he's someone you'd want on your team.

Caveats:

#1 - You have to be comfortable with the projections. Do I think Hinske's going to steal 15 bases? Yes? I'm OK. If not, I have to change the projections.
#2 - You don't necessarily have to rank everyone "higher" on your list. For example - Case Blake makes the list because he got two "D" ranks and an "F". If you said his 6 SB (vs. the baseline) isn't worth squat, you can drop one of those "Ds" to an "E"... reducing his score and poping Sean Borrows or Bill Mueler into the top 12.
#3 - This assumes that anybody UNDER the baseline is valueless. In other words - anyone that is not drafted to be a starter on your team is worth $1 (or worth a last-round pick).

Also, I wasn't looking at the complete package of a 5X5 or higher ranking. Of course the high BA guys will pick up value to dilute the value of a single stolen base.

...and when it comes down to it - sometimes you have to go with your gut and ignore the empirical evidence....
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Postby Coppernob » Thu Feb 26, 2004 8:19 pm

well, Mordracken (and others) thanks for the time in giving suggestions:

Yahoo's system is a straight draft, no auction.

I have taken on some of yours and Erlo's suggestions. I have ranked each of the h2h categories in the league, so eg Bobby Abreu ranks 10th for R, 22nd in H, 86th, in HR, 26th in RBI, 7th in BB, 18th in SB, 11th in .AVG, 12th in OPS, with averge ranking of 24. Bonds using this system comes out as 45 becuse his H projections and SB are low.

Ihave made sure that the formula eliminates anyone projected with under 350ABs.

Now however come two leaps of faith: the first is that i am using projections for 2004. Change the source of the projections and thenumbers change .

The second is, in a h2h, each of the 8 categories have equal weight in achieving the final result. Therefore i think i am right in giving each 1/8th of weight. With points, ranking is so much easier, but with h2h it becomes harder.

Thanks for the food for thought.
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Postby xeifrank » Thu Feb 26, 2004 8:34 pm

You need to convert ratio categories like WHIP, ERA and Average into counting stats like Runs, HRs, Wins etc... are.

To do this pick a replacement value level. Let's take Average for example. Estimate or calculate the league average from the pool of players that will be drafted. For example, say it is .280

Any player with an average over .280 will have a positive value and any player with an average less than .280 will have a negative value when it comes to batting average.

Let's a few players, and give them some 2004 projected stats to work with.

Adam Dunn: AB: 540, Hits: 134, Average: .248
Juan Pierre: AB: 640, Hits: 193, Average: .302
Todd Helton: AB: 570, Hits: 198, Average: .347
Barry Bonds: AB: 411, Hits: 138, Average: .336

To convert average to a counting stat, use the following formula:

Counting Stat = Hits - (AB * .280)

A.Dunn = 134 - (540 * .280) = -17.2
J.Pierre = 193 - (640 * .280) = 13.8
T.Helton = 198 - (570 * .280) = 38.4
B.Bonds = 138 - (411 * .280) = 22.9

There is a similiar formula for ERA and WHIP and any other ratio category.

vr,

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