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Booting Starting Pitching-theory

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Re: Booting Starting Pitching-theory

Postby rookies and cream » Fri May 09, 2008 3:40 pm

hot4tx wrote:
Yoda wrote:I also think the depth of the league matters. It would be much easier to pull off something like this in a larger league versus a smaller league.


Good thought.

If I did this I wouldn't be drafting Nathan and KRod, I would pick to Sorias and other low-ERA/Low whip closers available after round 10 (when my offense was completely stacked) and then combine them with Broxton/Heath, etc. Also important is the SP/RP low-ratio guys.


Actually, my league is relatively shallow. It is a weekly league and we start only 7 pitchers. Since teams can't rotate in and out pitchers, nobody really has any middle relievers so all are pretty much available.

My active pitchers right now are Wagner, Street, Fuentes, Betancourt, Marmol, Bell, and Neshek (to be replaced by Okajima or Casilla).

I have Izzy on the bench.
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Re: Booting Starting Pitching-theory

Postby BillyMafia » Fri May 09, 2008 4:25 pm

I'm in 14 team 5x5 H2H league and did not plan on using this theory but starting this week I have implemented it. It is not working out this week yet but I think in the long run it can (doesn't mean it will). We only roster 7 P's and start 5 each week so when I drafted Rivera, Soria and Capps along with Joba I noticed very quickly that I wasn't competitive in W's and K's. I then made a few trades to get Saito and Wagner and picked up Broxton. I started Joba and Capps this week so my era and whip are high and now I don't have many innings to be able to bring it down so it is not working well this week. My team is a high runs and SB's team and very competitve in avg, hr's and rbi's so if I can win era,whip and sv's each week then only need to win 3 hitting categories. This may sound weird but I'm kind of glad it is not working this week because it kind of feels like cheating.
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Re: Booting Starting Pitching-theory

Postby BuckeyeSal » Fri May 09, 2008 4:45 pm

I think you'd have to look at who you get hitting wise in the first few picks to see if you can pull it off.

In this league I drafted in order: Arod, Pujols, B. Phillips, Morneau,Dunn, Abreu,(at this point I was pretty confident I would have a top 3 hitting team) than Oswalt, Chris B. Young and than Kazmir.

If I took out Oswalt and Kazmir than according to my draft results I could have drafted JJ Putz and Saito. If I didn't draft Abreau I could have gotten Krod. It does put pressure on your later round drafts but since you're not taking bad closers and bad pitchers in the 12-20 round you have a better chance of hitting the lotto on a flier(like I got Furcal in the 18th round since everyone else had already drafted their SS) It would have worked this year, but at the same time I think my pitching is going to get better and I'll win anyways so I guess why screw with a good thing.
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Re: Booting Starting Pitching-theory

Postby colemwi » Fri May 09, 2008 4:59 pm

it makes sense but noy on draft day. I have the same strategy as a fall back but I have Volzquez and LEE so I will see how far my staff can hol dup. Currently I have 39 points pitching. So I like it as a fall back strategy during the year but you dont know what will happen during a year and punting not one but two categories before the season starts doesnt make sense. Plus, what if you loose one of two RP to injury? Now you are looking mid to low 20s.
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Re: Booting Starting Pitching-theory

Postby jake_harv88 » Fri May 09, 2008 5:46 pm

rookies and cream wrote:Trust me. I did the math and looked at the history of my league (i.e., how many points win, what stats win categories). Starting pitching flew off the draft board in my league, sometimes 2-3 rounds earlier than I had anticipated based on ADP/MDP. As such, I was able to draft an extremely offensive potent team (e.g., D Lee in round 5, Granderson in round 6). I should be able to win or at very least come in top 2-3 in every offensive category.

I should be able to finish up with 105 points in my league, which is an amount that has one all but one year (last year when I dominated ;-D )


correct me if I'm wrong my good man...

In this strategy you are essentially punting wins and Ks. At its extreme you can get 12 pts for 8 categories (runs,rbis,ave,hrs,sbs,era,whip,saves) and 1 pt for 2 other categories (ks,wins). Thus your point total would be (12 x 8) + (1 x 2) = 98 pts. This falls WAY short of your 105 predicted that you would need to win the league. You may not get last in wins and Ks but at the same time you may not get first for all the offensive categories...

Definitely keep us posted though i'm interested as to how this turns out...
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Re: Booting Starting Pitching-theory

Postby rookies and cream » Fri May 09, 2008 8:32 pm

jake_harv88 wrote:
rookies and cream wrote:Trust me. I did the math and looked at the history of my league (i.e., how many points win, what stats win categories). Starting pitching flew off the draft board in my league, sometimes 2-3 rounds earlier than I had anticipated based on ADP/MDP. As such, I was able to draft an extremely offensive potent team (e.g., D Lee in round 5, Granderson in round 6). I should be able to win or at very least come in top 2-3 in every offensive category.

I should be able to finish up with 105 points in my league, which is an amount that has one all but one year (last year when I dominated ;-D )


correct me if I'm wrong my good man...

In this strategy you are essentially punting wins and Ks. At its extreme you can get 12 pts for 8 categories (runs,rbis,ave,hrs,sbs,era,whip,saves) and 1 pt for 2 other categories (ks,wins). Thus your point total would be (12 x 8) + (1 x 2) = 98 pts. This falls WAY short of your 105 predicted that you would need to win the league. You may not get last in wins and Ks but at the same time you may not get first for all the offensive categories...

Definitely keep us posted though i'm interested as to how this turns out...


It's actually a 7 x 7 league (on CBS) where we have two 1/2 point pitching categories (Losses, Quality Starts) and two 1/2 point hitting categories (OBP and SLG).

Thus, I should be able to get a total of 44.5 pitching points:

Losses = 1st place = 6 pts
Quality Starts = 12th place = 0.5 pts
K's = 12th place = 1 pt
Wins = 12th place = 1 pt
Saves = 1st place = 12 pts
ERA = 1st place = 12 pts
WHIP = 1st place = 12 pts

I'm hoping to get at least 60 hitting points (I actually had 69 last year) for a total of about 105.

The past winning teams before last year had totals of 106.5, 103, and 105.5 points.
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Re: Booting Starting Pitching-theory

Postby Field » Fri May 09, 2008 8:48 pm

rookies and cream wrote:It's actually a 7 x 7 league (on CBS) where we have two 1/2 point pitching categories (Losses, Quality Starts) and two 1/2 point hitting categories (OBP and SLG).

Thus, I should be able to get a total of 44.5 pitching points:

Losses = 1st place = 6 pts
Quality Starts = 12th place = 0.5 pts
K's = 12th place = 1 pt
Wins = 12th place = 1 pt
Saves = 1st place = 12 pts
ERA = 1st place = 12 pts
WHIP = 1st place = 12 pts

I'm hoping to get at least 60 hitting points (I actually had 69 last year) for a total of about 105.

The past winning teams before last year had totals of 106.5, 103, and 105.5 points.


So you still stand by this comment?:

rookies and cream wrote:
I don't know. I think it works equally well in roto format if implemented correctly. I'll keep you guys updated on my progress.



I think you should have qualified your statement, saying that it might work in select roto leagues. I know that you would almost have no shot at winning any league I have ever played in. I've dominated the hitting categories and still lost even with a good staff. I could never go into a season knowing that I was going to get crushed in 1 or 2 or more categories, it just makes absolute no sense unless you are playing in an extremely deep league.
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Re: Booting Starting Pitching-theory

Postby rookies and cream » Fri May 09, 2008 9:08 pm

Perhaps I should have qualified my statement by saying "select roto leagues". But honestly, I don't know why I couldn't work in standard 5x5 12-team roto leagues as well.

The strategy would give you 38 out of 60 pitching points. If you come in 2nd in all hitting stats, that would give you 55 points. This gives you a grand total of 93 points. Shouldn't that be enough to win the league?
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Re: Booting Starting Pitching-theory

Postby MTUCache » Fri May 09, 2008 9:32 pm

I think it's rather obvious that this works better in H2H than it does in roto... in H2H any given week the worst it can hurt you is two points, while giving you huge advantage in two others, thereby giving you close to a wash (i.e., if it does hurt you, it's not significant). By just barely reaching any minimum IP requirement, you can have a strong advantage in ERA/WHIP over your opponent, but, with a couple of bad outings by your closers you can be behind in all categories as well. For my money, it's not all that much more effective than just drafting a normal team and benching all but your ace and closers unless you need counting stats at the end of the week... it's essentially doing the same thing, but not gaining that 3rd-6th round pick you would have spent on pitching.

Likewise, in a standard (5x5) roto, even if you have below average starting pitching (none drafted before the 12th round), you can still finish with around 40 pitching points in a 12 team league (around 30 in a 10 person league) as long as you have one of the better bullpens. Punting Wins and Ks pretty much drops you down into that range anyway, and if you're not getting max-points in the other categories you're dead in the water.

The comparison that I use is matchplay vs. stroke play golf. If all it's going to cost you is one hole, then you have no problems going for the green in two. But, if it could cost you several strokes (and therefore the whole match), it's a much better play to just lay it up and go for the birdie instead of the eagle. "Go big or go home" is the mantra of those who's "medium" isn't enough to win tournaments.

For my money, I don't see it... at least going into the season (and for the first third really). Any advantage you think you get by spending those extra couple draft picks on hitters (3rd round? 5th round? Maybe you include a 10th rounder in there too?) really doesn't get your offense that much better. It's still completely possible to draft a very potent offense and a good rotation. Add in a few good FA/WW picks through the season and with very minimal investment you can field a pretty competitive staff. Now, if you're halfway through the season, and already tanked in W/K, then I can see punting them and trading your ace for a speed guy or something... the speed guy may get you a couple of points in steals (or a power guy in HR), but I would be hard-pressed to think that I couldn't gain 2-3 points in W/K just by smart managing in the second half.

Anyway... any advantage you get from it is slight, at best, and you could definitely be hurting your team by trying this. I'll stick to keeping a couple of aces on staff and a couple of spot-starter guys. Along with a deep bullpen, I don't think you can beat this combination.
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Re: Booting Starting Pitching-theory

Postby rookies and cream » Fri May 09, 2008 9:42 pm

MTUCache wrote:I think it's rather obvious that this works better in H2H than it does in roto... in H2H any given week the worst it can hurt you is two points, while giving you huge advantage in two others, thereby giving you close to a wash (i.e., if it does hurt you, it's not significant). By just barely reaching any minimum IP requirement, you can have a strong advantage in ERA/WHIP over your opponent, but, with a couple of bad outings by your closers you can be behind in all categories as well. For my money, it's not all that much more effective than just drafting a normal team and benching all but your ace and closers unless you need counting stats at the end of the week... it's essentially doing the same thing, but not gaining that 3rd-6th round pick you would have spent on pitching.

Likewise, in a standard (5x5) roto, even if you have below average starting pitching (none drafted before the 12th round), you can still finish with around 40 pitching points in a 12 team league (around 30 in a 10 person league) as long as you have one of the better bullpens. Punting Wins and Ks pretty much drops you down into that range anyway, and if you're not getting max-points in the other categories you're dead in the water.

The comparison that I use is matchplay vs. stroke play golf. If all it's going to cost you is one hole, then you have no problems going for the green in two. But, if it could cost you several strokes (and therefore the whole match), it's a much better play to just lay it up and go for the birdie instead of the eagle. "Go big or go home" is the mantra of those who's "medium" isn't enough to win tournaments.

For my money, I don't see it... at least going into the season (and for the first third really). Any advantage you think you get by spending those extra couple draft picks on hitters (3rd round? 5th round? Maybe you include a 10th rounder in there too?) really doesn't get your offense that much better. It's still completely possible to draft a very potent offense and a good rotation. Add in a few good FA/WW picks through the season and with very minimal investment you can field a pretty competitive staff. Now, if you're halfway through the season, and already tanked in W/K, then I can see punting them and trading your ace for a speed guy or something... the speed guy may get you a couple of points in steals (or a power guy in HR), but I would be hard-pressed to think that I couldn't gain 2-3 points in W/K just by smart managing in the second half.

Anyway... any advantage you get from it is slight, at best, and you could definitely be hurting your team by trying this. I'll stick to keeping a couple of aces on staff and a couple of spot-starter guys. Along with a deep bullpen, I don't think you can beat this combination.


Great post. Just to clarify, I didn't go into the draft with this strategy. I didn't even consider it until I lost Pedro and really took a good look at my remaining SP'ers. I wouldn't recommend the strategy unless you are able to draft/acquire a tremendous offense.

For example, from the draft I selected
C - Vmart (3rd round)
1B - DLee (5th round)
2B - Weeks (9th round)
3B - Atkins (4th round)
SS - M Young (7th round)
OF - Holliday (1st round)
OF - Sizemore (2nd round)
OF - Granderson (6th round)
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