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Patience vs Haste

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Patience vs Haste

Postby guffee » Wed May 07, 2008 6:35 am

This isn't a who would you drop thread, but I am looking at guys like Eveland, Smith, Danks, Duscherer, and Albers on FA. I own Snell, Blanton, Cain, and everyones favorite, Gagne, and I passed on guys like Cueto, Volquez, Mad Max, and any number of hot pitchers to stay the course. I am known to be mr. cautiously patient, but this is like staring at a bundle of cash and not making the move.

My Question:
What do you look for or determine that a move should be made to drop a projected talent for a possible-flash-in-the-pan or hidden gem?
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Re: Patience vs Haste

Postby interchange » Wed May 07, 2008 6:53 am

Duch is a guy I really like. Let's take his career numbers and normalize then to a 200IP season:
W - 15.6
L - 11.1
(obviously these are less meaningful for a reliever)
HR - 22.8
BB - 52.1
K - 164.2
ERA - 3.37
WHIP - 1.18
BAA - .245

That paints the picture of an extremely solid ratio pitcher.
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Re: Patience vs Haste

Postby hot4tx » Wed May 07, 2008 9:52 am

The general answer: There is no general answer. You have to use your brain and then use your gut. Obviously you're not dropping Ryan Howard or Eric Bedard for a fast starter. Likewise in leagues with max moves or $/move or something you may want to use a little more patience.

One tip, look for past history and/or expectations. A former 1st/2nd rounder who's been improving up through the minors might give you a little more haste then a 17th rounder who's never played like this before. That gives you a little bit of a feel for talent versus just playing hot for a while.

However, guys to come out of nowhere. Very few guys really are MLB ready when they start in the pros and they all have to continue to keep improving every step of the way. Some guys aren't highly touted but improve more than others. Sometimes you just gotta go with your gut.

Also realize you're going to be wrong a lot more than you're right in good leagues. You've got 1/12th, 1/14th, etc chance of getting that Prior or Pujols or Braun so you're going to miss out on the next big thing more than you get him. And you're going to pickup a lot more Chris Sheltons than Ryan Howards. Just get over it when it happens and move on.
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Re: Patience vs Haste

Postby The Artful Dodger » Wed May 07, 2008 1:14 pm

Timing is everything and it can work for you or against you. You have to be patient but not too patient where you limit being proactive in helping your squad out. My rule of thumb is really not to have one. Just be smart about your player assessments, make trades that make sense for you and are feasible in getting done, watch the FA/WW, and always be flexible.
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Re: Patience vs Haste

Postby anti elian » Wed May 07, 2008 2:17 pm

One other idea to keep in mind is to know the tendencies of your league-mates. In one league of mine where I've played with a bunch of the owners before I forgot how aggressive they are in picking up free agents. I generally like to take a wait and see approach with players in the FA pool and I have a little too much faith in the guys I draft. It's burned me a couple of times this season as players I had on my watch list were snatched up right before I was ready to make a move. So it's a good idea to try and anticipate how long those free agents are going to stay free agents.
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Re: Patience vs Haste

Postby horatio » Wed May 07, 2008 2:19 pm

Nice topic considering my continued disgust with A.J. Burnett. I feel like he's got to come around soon but he's killing me right now and McGowan is still available.
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Re: Patience vs Haste

Postby jdsun1 » Wed May 07, 2008 2:23 pm

horatio wrote:Nice topic considering my continued disgust with A.J. Burnett. I feel like he's got to come around soon but he's killing me right now and McGowan is still available.

McGowan for Burnett. Should be an easy decision for you.
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Re: Patience vs Haste

Postby MasterX1918 » Wed May 07, 2008 2:29 pm

Only drop people that you feel will hang around the waiver wire. Ian Snell is a guy that if you drop will probably pass through waivers and you could probably pick him back up if he starts to pitch well again. I dropped Ian Snell in one of my leagues a week ago and he's still hanging around, so it's apparent that not many managers desire to have him on their squads. Matt Cain is a different story though. Here's a guy that would probably get picked up if and when he passes through waivers (if he passes through waivers). He's coming off a high quality start against the Phillies so he's not going to stick around on free agency long. Also I only pick up players who I think have a lot of potential. There's a difference between Edinson Volquez and Ryan Dempster. Volquez's performance is more along the lines of him exploiting his potential while Dempster's is more of a fluke. I kind of think Cliff Lee is a fluke also, but he's put up good numbers so I think he's a combination of both flukey-ness and potential. Needless to say i'd much rather have Volquez on my team than Demspter since I think Volquez has the more up-side and ability to keep his pace.
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Re: Patience vs Haste

Postby horatio » Wed May 07, 2008 4:03 pm

"McGowan for Burnett. Should be an easy decision for you."

----- If it were such an easy decision based on the numbers both have provided so far I may as well just consider picking up Sidney Ponson. Seems' to me that Burnett has been pretty good the last 4 years even with the injury history. As much as Burnett has been killing me so far, after the ASB last year he did put an ERA of 3.01 with a whip of 1.09, walked 26 and K'd 70 in just over 71 innings of work. It's not that easy of a decision I don't think, more of a lateral move more than anything else in my opinion.
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Re: Patience vs Haste

Postby guffee » Wed May 07, 2008 4:15 pm

Thanx for the advice. It's just annoying to look at the guys i was going to get over the years and realize I passed on them due to over-confidence in my drafted guys. And I am not talking 20/20 Hindsight, I was this close to pushing the button and just went with my gut on the guys I drafted.

Last year it was Pena. This year it was Volquez(although his BB will eventually catch up to him). It gives me douche-chills thinking about them not being on my team. It's almost masochistic what I do to myself(0ER/10K for Volquez today). 1 of the banes of fantasy baseball.
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