Russ Ortiz anyone?

[ncstate04]

Whats up with Russ Ortiz? After winning 21 games last year, I would think that he would be a good middle round pick. Most drafts ive seen this year he goes in the 10th round or later. Are people predicting a decline, or was last season a fluke?

[Zitofan15]

Well the Braves have lost some offense from last year that got him those wins. I think he should put up numbers like: 3.70ERA with 16-18 wins, still good numbers.

[baseball genius]

Russ Ortiz has always been a good pitcher who has always been underated. Even in his days with the Giants he was the ace of the staff. People are ovlooking him because they are concerned with the Braves offensive production. I like Ortiz and would love to hae him on my team.

[The Jury]

I'm not sold on Ortiz...

In my opinion he's got the same kinda numbers as Kerry Wood has put up over the last bunch of years, ie. 3.60+ ERA, high WHIP, high walks, etc..

Except for one thing - Russ ain't nearly as dominant as Wood...

Add that up and you've got yourself a pretty mediocre pitcher in itself.

Some guys go by the totals, I go by the probability of a pitcher to win, here's an example:

Assuming an equal number of starts for these 2 pitchers,
Some guys go for the guy who has 8 wins, 3.75 ERA, 1.40 WHIP...
While I'll take the guy with 4 wins, 2.99 ERA, 1.11 WHIP..

Why the hell would I do that? Because you can't change the past stats but the future stats are what I'm intersted in so although the other guy has 8 wins, he's nubmers dictate to an extent that he's the worse of the two pitchers thus the probability of him posting the better stats is less likely than the chances that the actual better pitcher will produce..