Is Cliff Lee for real?

[rumball]

What do you think about Cliff Lee? In 2005 he had a 3.79 ERA, 1.22Whip (under a hit per inning) and 18 wins. In 2004 his first full year he had 161 k's in 179 ip. Is he just consolidating those stats or is he going to fall back to earth and end up with similar #'s to 2006 and 2007?

[Yoda]

Pretty split in terms of people's expectations (see debate).

I personally think that he won't keep this up but one thing that he is doing different this year is that he is able to command his fastball very well. Also, he is back to throwing low 90s so that definitely helps him. I think a return to 05 levels is completely reasonable at this point.

[anti elian]

I think he's for real. Obviously he won't keep up his current pace, but I can see him being a top 10-15 AL pitcher. He's a lefty and he throws in the low-90s and simply not walking batters can go a long way.

[jake_twothousandfive]

I think he's real in the sense that he's a good pitcher. But he's not real in the sense of being a top 5 pitcher.

If you expect a slightly watered down version of his 2005 stats you should be happy. Something like 15 wins, sub 4.00 ERA and 140-150 K's seems likely.

[noseeum]

He's for real. Forget about the normal stats, look underneath.

0.5 BB/9 innings. That's impeccable control. So maybe that creeps up to 2?
16 K/BB. What?!?!?! That's insane. So maybe it levels off to 8 or 6. Anything over 3 is solid. This is otherwordly.
7.6 K/9. Very solid. With impeccable control this is a force to be reckoned with.

Unless someone is offering you top 10 SP value, there's no reason to even consider trading this guy. You didn't pay much for him, so hold on tight unless someone else is willing to pay dearly for him. I'm not saying he'll end up in the top 10, but I'm very confident he'll end up in the top 20.

[chipper]

He's for real. Forget about the normal stats, look underneath.

0.5 BB/9 innings. That's impeccable control. So maybe that creeps up to 2?
16 K/BB. What?!?!?! That's insane. So maybe it levels off to 8 or 6. Anything over 3 is solid. This is otherwordly.
7.6 K/9. Very solid. With impeccable control this is a force to be reckoned with.

Unless someone is offering you top 10 SP value, there's no reason to even consider trading this guy. You didn't pay much for him, so hold on tight unless someone else is willing to pay dearly for him. I'm not saying he'll end up in the top 10, but I'm very confident he'll end up in the top 20.

I think he's back to form, but food for thought, his starts thus far have been against:

Oak (have problems with lefties)
Oak
Minn
KC
Sea

Not exactly the cream of the hitting teams. We'll see.

[jfg]

His rates and control will still be there when facing better teams. He's for real. His ERA is going to go up when facing better teams but he's still going to be a great pitcher to have this year and he's pitching for a team that will get him wins. He's definitely a guy I'm holding on to unless an amazing offer comes along.

[yourgodsdice]

You guys are missing a big point not discussed yet. Lee is very injury prone. I'm just saying enjoy the ride while it lasts.

[jondunc]

I'm a huge Tribe fan and I've seen all his starts this year and I'm just not buying it. I see him as a top 50 pitcher maybe, but that's about it. Trade him now.

[duckbillgates]

Fun fact according to my stat-head friend. If Cliff Lee finishes the season with a 3.50 ERA (sounds good, right?), that means he would have an ERA over 4.00 for the rest of the way.

Still, he isn't going to have decent trade value until he dominates a solid team. If he has a good outing against the Yankees, then you can sell high. Otherwise, I think he's going to be a great #4 or #5 starter. I just wouldn't anchor my rotation with him.