Each spring I maintain spreadsheets of the averages of all the projected stats I find. I update it once or twice a week withj any new material and updated numbers from the sources. (I find out when most sources put out their projections right here in this forum) I follow about 700 players and periodically add/delete a few when these industry sources drastically adjusts playing time or role (ie Aaron Boone, Lance Carter, a few weeks back)
If a tool like this would be helpful here, I was thinking of uploading it in a similar format to the excellent cheatsheet several members combined to create a couple weeks ago. I'm not sure how to go about that or if I'm even authorized to? My thinking is to update the numbers here, whenever I update my own (once or twice a week).
Like any tool, average projections have their pros and cons. The biggest drawback (IMO) is that any truly peceptive 'outside the box' numbers from any one source will be watered down by combining them with several sources. On the flip side, it's simply an unbiased composite of what the mainstream industry sees for a player. They're not necessarily more accurate than any particular source but do provide a general guideline to make personal adjustments from.
The main benefit I see from them is that they are a compilation and annonymous. Whenever any given source posts rankings or numbers, several members ALWAYS jump on em saying how whacked they truely must be, as they don't agree with that member's preconcieved notions. I plan on simply providing the resultant averages (not the underlying numbers, source names, or their rankings). My thinking is that members can use these numbers, tweak them to fit their own beliefs, and then apply them to their own league nuances to come up with their own rankings.
I am in a points league that has some scoring rules that makes it so I cannot use simple cheat sheets. (E.g., we count a hitter's total bases including walks, but subtract strikeouts. This means someone like Bonds becomes more valuable, but free swingers like Soriuano become less valuable.)
This means I need to make my own cheat sheets off of projections, but I can't seem to find reliable projections without spending money on a pay site.
Great idea! Whose projections are you using? If the numbers are compiled by Cafe folks, we can definitely use these for the Cheat Sheets section; if you're drawing from other sites or publications, I'd be a bit more reluctant.
Arlo wrote:Great idea! Whose projections are you using? If the numbers are compiled by Cafe folks, we can definitely use these for the Cheat Sheets section; if you're drawing from other sites or publications, I'd be a bit more reluctant.
No Arlo, unfortunatly the numbers come from the mainstream industry free sources. Places like the RotoTimes, The Sporting New (during their free preview), the data files from xiefrank's draft software, Pouliot's partial projections on RotoWold, RotoChamps, FSRU, DraftHelp's cat leaders, the ZIP's stuff to name a few) I update them and get rid of the old stuff.
As for pay stuff, I'm not sure it's kosher to name names (liscensing agreements etc...) but I also scan in numbers from the two mags I bought....those will likely be eliminated as they become "old news"