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Rays will win AL East in the next three years

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Re: Rays will win AL East in the next three years

Postby Pogotheostrich » Fri May 02, 2008 1:14 pm

joshheines wrote:Yes, Boston and NY can sign free agents. Yes they also have top 5 farm systems. Yes they also lack any real impact players who will be coming up before 2011. Whereas in the next two years the Rays will add 3 top 20 pitches who have succeeded in high minors and a top SS in by next year. I still don't like the Yankees and Sox prospects too much despite what BA says.
3 top 20 pitchers? Even top prospects falter. I won't count TB chickens before they hatch.
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Re: Rays will win AL East in the next three years

Postby mweir145 » Fri May 02, 2008 1:18 pm

No. Boston and New York will always be the favourites in this division with their money.
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Re: Rays will win AL East in the next three years

Postby joshheines » Fri May 02, 2008 1:42 pm

Dear Yankee and Sox fans,

You are so deluded by your demand for glory that you not only miss the point of the post, but miss the point of mentioning prospects. I will reiterate. The Rays prospects are lightyears ahead of the Yankees and Sox prospects. That is why they will win the AL East in the next three years. Well, not the only reason. In addition to prospects, the Rays have young talent. In two years, how good are 36 year olds Jeter, Abreu, Matsui and Damon going to be in 2010? Mariano will be 40. Manny won't be around in 2010.

The Rays 3 offensive stars will be Longoria, Crawford and Upton, who will be 24, 28 and 25 respectively. i.e. in their prime. Then the pitching staff will be made up of 5 of the following: Kazmir, Shields, Garza, Niemann, Sonnatine, Price, Davis, and Jackson. I like the chances of a very succesful rotation in 2010 3 of those guys could fall off the face of the planet and you'd have a great rotation.

With a new stadium for the Rays coming in 2012, I could definitely see them open the checkbook for an impact FA or two starting in 2010.

Admit it, the Rays are players in the AL East.
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Re: Rays will win AL East in the next three years

Postby raiders_umpire » Fri May 02, 2008 1:49 pm

joshheines wrote:
Admit it, the Rays are players in the AL East.




Definitely if everybody keeps improving that is already in the majors and the cards fall just right with the young pitching that is coming up through the minors.
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Re: Rays will win AL East in the next three years

Postby Matthias » Fri May 02, 2008 1:59 pm

joshheines wrote:Admit it, the Rays are players in the AL East.

Hey, absolutely they're players. I don't think anyone in this thread has said, "Awww, c'mon... Rays are going to be the Rays and win 65 games every season." But to say, hands down, they're going to win the division in 2010/2011? That's a strong statement that I wouldn't make about any team in any division. I'll say some teams that I definitely think won't be in the hunt in 2010/2011 (Pirates, Rangers, Twins, Giants), but that's about it.

First, I don't know how you can count on Crawford. I might be wrong, but I think his contract is up in the next year of so (including options)? Maybe the Rays bust their bank to resign him, but based upon past history, I doubt it.

Second, you're basically looking at current teams + prospects = future team when everyone knows that's not how the Yankees or Red Sox operate. Both of them have toned it down a bit in the last couple of years but they've both shown willingness to go out and fill needs in FA. There aren't that many blue-chippers coming down the pipe, Sabathia and Tex are the big FAs and Holliday may be traded if the Rox feel they can't work out something long-term, but enough players shuffle around that you have to include the FA wild card in any 3-year projection.

Third, there's a big difference between prospects and stars. I know Sox prospects better than I do others, so this'll be slanted, but Andy Marte was supposed to be the next big thing. And.... not so much. Hanley Ramirez was supposed to be the next big thing. And.... bingo bango bongo. There's plenty of highly-touted prospects who turn into the dreaded AAAA player, a number who become solid contributors, and a very few who become the perennial All Star.

If you just want to say: The Rays have great prospects. Their current crop of minor-leaguers will be better than the Yankees or Red Sox current minor-leaguers in 2010, that's fine. You have a decent argument. Or even if you just want to say, "The Rays look really good for 2010." But the title of your post is: "Rays will win the AL East in 3 years" and that's something different entirely.
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Re: Rays will win AL East in the next three years

Postby Pogotheostrich » Fri May 02, 2008 2:06 pm

Matthias wrote:First, I don't know how you can count on Crawford. I might be wrong, but I think his contract is up in the next year of so (including options)? Maybe the Rays bust their bank to resign him, but based upon past history, I doubt it.


Crawford's contract has options for 2009 and 2010.
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Re: Rays will win AL East in the next three years

Postby BronXBombers51 » Fri May 02, 2008 2:08 pm

joshheines wrote:Dear Yankee and Sox fans,

You are so deluded by your demand for glory that you not only miss the point of the post, but miss the point of mentioning prospects. I will reiterate. The Rays prospects are lightyears ahead of the Yankees and Sox prospects. That is why they will win the AL East in the next three years. Well, not the only reason. In addition to prospects, the Rays have young talent. In two years, how good are 36 year olds Jeter, Abreu, Matsui and Damon going to be in 2010? Mariano will be 40. Manny won't be around in 2010.

The Rays 3 offensive stars will be Longoria, Crawford and Upton, who will be 24, 28 and 25 respectively. i.e. in their prime. Then the pitching staff will be made up of 5 of the following: Kazmir, Shields, Garza, Niemann, Sonnatine, Price, Davis, and Jackson. I like the chances of a very succesful rotation in 2010 3 of those guys could fall off the face of the planet and you'd have a great rotation.

With a new stadium for the Rays coming in 2012, I could definitely see them open the checkbook for an impact FA or two starting in 2010.

Admit it, the Rays are players in the AL East.


First of all, Yanks and Sox fans have not been the only people talking about how the Rays winning the East is unlikely. Mweir hates both teams and admits that their finances are too big of an advantage.

Secondly, Abreu, Matsui and Damon will all be off the team by 2010. The Yankees will hopefully have replaced them with players like Tabata and Jackson at that point. You neglected to mention players like that, along with Cano and their promising pitching rotation.

Matthias pretty much echoed my sentiments on the rest of your points. I never said the Rays wouldn't be players in the East. But it's obvious that the Yankees and Red Sox are both moving in very favorable directions as well, and they have the power to outspend Tampa at will, which still makes them the favorites IMO.
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Re: Rays will win AL East in the next three years

Postby Matthias » Fri May 02, 2008 2:10 pm

Pogotheostrich wrote:
Matthias wrote:First, I don't know how you can count on Crawford. I might be wrong, but I think his contract is up in the next year of so (including options)? Maybe the Rays bust their bank to resign him, but based upon past history, I doubt it.

Crawford's contract has options for 2009 and 2010.

Ok. I wasn't sure. I knew next year was a club option year for him; wasn't sure what the story was for 2010 and beyond.
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Re: Rays will win AL East in the next three years

Postby Matthias » Fri May 02, 2008 2:49 pm

BronXBombers51 wrote:I never said the Rays wouldn't be players in the East. But it's obvious that the Yankees and Red Sox are both moving in very favorable directions as well, and they have the power to outspend Tampa at will, which still makes them the favorites IMO.

The Jays also have a good, young team and the O's seem to have shifted to building a team for 2010 with their off-season moves. Really, it's just going to be a strong division overall over the next couple of years. I don't think that predicting any team as the divisional champ is a defensible position. The best you can say is that a team is going to be competitive. And then you wait for injuries/slumps/break-outs/prospects/trades/FAs/bad bounces/good bounces to determine who goes to the playoffs.
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Re: Rays will win AL East in the next three years

Postby thedude » Fri May 02, 2008 3:08 pm

joshheines wrote:Dear Yankee and Sox fans,

You are so deluded by your demand for glory that you not only miss the point of the post, but miss the point of mentioning prospects. I will reiterate. The Rays prospects are lightyears ahead of the Yankees and Sox prospects. That is why they will win the AL East in the next three years. Well, not the only reason. In addition to prospects, the Rays have young talent. In two years, how good are 36 year olds Jeter, Abreu, Matsui and Damon going to be in 2010? Mariano will be 40. Manny won't be around in 2010.

The Rays 3 offensive stars will be Longoria, Crawford and Upton, who will be 24, 28 and 25 respectively. i.e. in their prime. Then the pitching staff will be made up of 5 of the following: Kazmir, Shields, Garza, Niemann, Sonnatine, Price, Davis, and Jackson. I like the chances of a very succesful rotation in 2010 3 of those guys could fall off the face of the planet and you'd have a great rotation.

With a new stadium for the Rays coming in 2012, I could definitely see them open the checkbook for an impact FA or two starting in 2010.

Admit it, the Rays are players in the AL East.


The Red Sox lineup is aging, but their rotation is young and good.

Lester, Buchholz, Beckett, and Matsuzaka are all in their early to mid 20s. They can go out and sign sign bats to replace Manny. My biggest concern would be the age of Varitek.

The Rays have a nice team, but the Rays are counting on the minors to rebuild, and everyone knows how volatile young players can be.

Can the Rays make the playoffs at some point in the next three years? Yeah maybe, but first the Rays have to win 71 games, something they have never done. Of course the last time the Yankees won less than 71 games was 1966. The last time the Red Sox won less than 71 games was 1965.
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