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Rays will win AL East in the next three years

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Re: Rays will win AL East in the next three years

Postby bigh0rt » Fri May 02, 2008 11:23 am

BronXBombers51 wrote:As much as I like what the Rays are doing, I don't think the Yankees are getting any more vulnerable. They might miss the playoffs this year, but I'm very excited at what their future holds. They cut $80 million in payroll after this year, and $20 more after 2009. In two years they will have essentially eliminated half of their payroll and wiped the slate clean from all of the awful dealings that they've made since 2002.

Now, of course they could just go out and re-spend all the money on overpriced players again, but I don't see an indication that they will. They've been a lot more weary of signing outside talent to big deals since Cashman re-signed with the team. They've also gone from the #27 farm system in baseball in 2004 to the #5 this year. A 2009 Opening Day roster with Posada, Cano, Rodriguez, Jeter, Damon, Cabrera and Matsui is still one of the tops in the league, and they can use some of that $80 million to fill the hole at 1B (Teixiera?). As you mentioned, they have Tabata and Jackson waiting in the wings for when Damon and Matsui leave after 2009. And they'll have a pitching staff built around Hughes, Chamberlain, Wang and Kennedy, with Rivera still at the back of that bullpen and plenty of capable MRs like Ohlendorf, Albaladejo, Bruney, Ramirez, Britton and more.

I just think that while Tampa is getting very good, the Yankees are also improving their situation. If the Yankees can couple efficient management decisions with their ability to spend money, they can be deadly.

I see them signing Sabathia before they sign Teixeira.
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Re: Rays will win AL East in the next three years

Postby joshheines » Fri May 02, 2008 11:38 am

Bloody Sox wrote:
joshheines wrote:
Pogotheostrich wrote:I don't know. I still don't think they have a great lineup even with Longoria. The Yanks and RedSox have pretty good farm systems too and the money to fill in the gaps.


The Sox prospects in the minors aren't that good and there really aren't any all-star caliber impact players. Same with the Yankees. Tabata and Jackson could be impact bats, but they are quite far away. Granted those teams have some impact rookie players, but there depth of minor league impact bats is lightyears behind the Rays.

There is no reason why Longoria can't be a .300/30/100 3B, to go along with Crawford and Upton who could be a regular 20/40 guy. Throw in Pena, who, by the way hit 46 HR last year to go along with Hinske who is performing well and "Let me Play" Johnny Gomes. It's not the best line-up but above average.

I disagree with your assertion of the Red Sox minor league system. The Sox have been promoting 2-3 impact rookies to the big leagues every year for the last three years (2006: Papelbon, Lester, Youkilis. 2007: Pedroia, Ellsbury, Delcarmen. 2008: Buchholz, Moss, Lowrie). Next year we'll be talking about Bowden and Masterson, then after that Kotteras, Anderson, Kalish, and any number of very promising A-leaguers. I'd say they have a pretty good system working. How do you know who the all-star caliber players are going to be when those guys are in the minors? There have been endless numbers of "can't miss" guys who never become perennial all-stars.

That said, I agree that the Rays have quite a few very good prospects and they could be very good in the next few years, especially if they keep adding cheap guys like Pena and Hinske who exceed expectations. They are a fun team to watch.


An impact bat/arm is not simply a guy who makes it to a major league roster, it is a player who based on HS/college/minors and scouting reports who can become an all-star caliber player.

Pedroia is not an impact bat. He's a doubles hitter and has never shown HR power or real SLG power in his minor league career. Last year is probably going to be a little more than you should expect. Good, not spectacular. Same with Ellsbury, except I doubt he'll ever hit .350 or close to it again. Delcarmen is far from an impact pitcher. He walks too many and gives up too many HR. I like Bucholz and think he could probably make a few all-star games, but the Rays have three pitchers in the pipeline just as good in Price, Davis and McGee. I don't like Moss' chances for long-term success. A .450 SLG and .800 OPS over 640 minor league games is not impressive at all and his K rate of 568K in 640 is brutal. Jed Lowrie is Dustin Pedroia, except not quite as good.

I'm not demolishing the Sox farm system, it's probably above average, but there is a big difference in my opinion from Rays to Sox.
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Re: Rays will win AL East in the next three years

Postby Sea Dog Fan » Fri May 02, 2008 11:39 am

joshheines wrote:
Pogotheostrich wrote:I don't know. I still don't think they have a great lineup even with Longoria. The Yanks and RedSox have pretty good farm systems too and the money to fill in the gaps.


The Sox prospects in the minors aren't that good and there really aren't any all-star caliber impact players. Same with the Yankees. Tabata and Jackson could be impact bats, but they are quite far away. Granted those teams have some impact rookie players, but there depth of minor league impact bats is lightyears behind the Rays.

There is no reason why Longoria can't be a .300/30/100 3B, to go along with Crawford and Upton who could be a regular 20/40 guy. Throw in Pena, who, by the way hit 46 HR last year to go along with Hinske who is performing well and "Let me Play" Johnny Gomes. It's not the best line-up but above average.


Is that why both of the Sox and the Yankees have a top five farm systems? Most of Boston's hitting prospects are in A ball, guys like Lars Anderson, Ryan Kalish, Oscar Tejada, Josh Reddick, Che-Hsuan Lin, and a few others. The guys I listed have good enough tools and potential to become all-star caliber impact players. Guys like Brandon Moss and Chris Carter will probably be career backups. Justin Masterson has potential and so does Michael Bowden. Do you follow minor league baseball at all?

Also, Jed Lowrie has much more potential than Dustin Pedroia because he has much better power potential.

Also, both Boston and New York have the luxury of signing free agents.
Last edited by Sea Dog Fan on Fri May 02, 2008 11:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Rays will win AL East in the next three years

Postby AussieDodger » Fri May 02, 2008 11:40 am

BronXBombers51 wrote:As much as I like what the Rays are doing, I don't think the Yankees are getting any more vulnerable. They might miss the playoffs this year, but I'm very excited at what their future holds. They cut $80 million in payroll after this year, and $20 more after 2009. In two years they will have essentially eliminated half of their payroll and wiped the slate clean from all of the awful dealings that they've made since 2002.


The Yankees will build up another catalogue of cruddy contracts. I don't base this on anything, I just think they will.
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Re: Rays will win AL East in the next three years

Postby joshheines » Fri May 02, 2008 11:49 am

Sea Dog Fan wrote:
joshheines wrote:
Pogotheostrich wrote:I don't know. I still don't think they have a great lineup even with Longoria. The Yanks and RedSox have pretty good farm systems too and the money to fill in the gaps.


The Sox prospects in the minors aren't that good and there really aren't any all-star caliber impact players. Same with the Yankees. Tabata and Jackson could be impact bats, but they are quite far away. Granted those teams have some impact rookie players, but there depth of minor league impact bats is lightyears behind the Rays.

There is no reason why Longoria can't be a .300/30/100 3B, to go along with Crawford and Upton who could be a regular 20/40 guy. Throw in Pena, who, by the way hit 46 HR last year to go along with Hinske who is performing well and "Let me Play" Johnny Gomes. It's not the best line-up but above average.


Is that why both of them have a top five farm systems? Most of Boston's hitting prospects are in A ball, guys like Lars Anderson, Ryan Kalish, Oscar Tejada, Josh Reddick, Che-Hsuan Lin, and a few others. The guys I listed have good enough tools and potential to become all-star caliber impact players.

Also, both Boston and New York have the luxury of signing free agents.


Yes, Boston and NY can sign free agents. Yes they also have top 5 farm systems. Yes they also lack any real impact players who will be coming up before 2011. Whereas in the next two years the Rays will add 3 top 20 pitches who have succeeded in high minors and a top SS in by next year. I still don't like the Yankees and Sox prospects too much despite what BA says.
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Re: Rays will win AL East in the next three years

Postby Matthias » Fri May 02, 2008 12:01 pm

joshheines wrote:Pedroia is not an impact bat. He's a doubles hitter and has never shown HR power or real SLG power in his minor league career. Last year is probably going to be a little more than you should expect. Good, not spectacular. Same with Ellsbury, except I doubt he'll ever hit .350 or close to it again. Delcarmen is far from an impact pitcher. He walks too many and gives up too many HR. I like Bucholz and think he could probably make a few all-star games, but the Rays have three pitchers in the pipeline just as good in Price, Davis and McGee. I don't like Moss' chances for long-term success. A .450 SLG and .800 OPS over 640 minor league games is not impressive at all and his K rate of 568K in 640 is brutal. Jed Lowrie is Dustin Pedroia, except not quite as good.

I'm not demolishing the Sox farm system, it's probably above average, but there is a big difference in my opinion from Rays to Sox.

Yah, I can't imagine any of those players having a roster spot on a contender. Oh, hold on.

In all seriousness, though, there's absolutely nothing wrong with a lineup that includes Pedroia, Ellsbury, Lowrie, and Declarmen, much less Buchholz. The All Stars at every position was tried and it didn't work (see NYY 2000 - present). But if the Red Sox are able to blend cheap, productive home-grown players with a mix of talent they get from free agency, I don't see any reason that they should stop being competitive for the division.
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Re: Rays will win AL East in the next three years

Postby Bloody Sox » Fri May 02, 2008 12:05 pm

BronXBombers51 wrote:As much as I like what the Rays are doing, I don't think the Yankees are getting any more vulnerable. They might miss the playoffs this year, but I'm very excited at what their future holds. They cut $80 million in payroll after this year, and $20 more after 2009. In two years they will have essentially eliminated half of their payroll and wiped the slate clean from all of the awful dealings that they've made since 2002.

Now, of course they could just go out and re-spend all the money on overpriced players again, but I don't see an indication that they will. They've been a lot more weary of signing outside talent to big deals since Cashman re-signed with the team. They've also gone from the #27 farm system in baseball in 2004 to the #5 this year. A 2009 Opening Day roster with Posada, Cano, Rodriguez, Jeter, Damon, Cabrera and Matsui is still one of the tops in the league, and they can use some of that $80 million to fill the hole at 1B (Teixiera?). As you mentioned, they have Tabata and Jackson waiting in the wings for when Damon and Matsui leave after 2009. And they'll have a pitching staff built around Hughes, Chamberlain, Wang and Kennedy, with Rivera still at the back of that bullpen and plenty of capable MRs like Ohlendorf, Albaladejo, Bruney, Ramirez, Britton and more.

I just think that while Tampa is getting very good, the Yankees are also improving their situation. If the Yankees can couple efficient management decisions with their ability to spend money, they can be deadly.

I agree with all of this - I think the Yanks and Red Sox are figuring out how to have the best of both worlds.
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Re: Rays will win AL East in the next three years

Postby Bloody Sox » Fri May 02, 2008 12:11 pm

Matthias wrote:
joshheines wrote:Pedroia is not an impact bat. He's a doubles hitter and has never shown HR power or real SLG power in his minor league career. Last year is probably going to be a little more than you should expect. Good, not spectacular. Same with Ellsbury, except I doubt he'll ever hit .350 or close to it again. Delcarmen is far from an impact pitcher. He walks too many and gives up too many HR. I like Bucholz and think he could probably make a few all-star games, but the Rays have three pitchers in the pipeline just as good in Price, Davis and McGee. I don't like Moss' chances for long-term success. A .450 SLG and .800 OPS over 640 minor league games is not impressive at all and his K rate of 568K in 640 is brutal. Jed Lowrie is Dustin Pedroia, except not quite as good.

I'm not demolishing the Sox farm system, it's probably above average, but there is a big difference in my opinion from Rays to Sox.

Yah, I can't imagine any of those players having a roster spot on a contender. Oh, hold on.

In all seriousness, though, there's absolutely nothing wrong with a lineup that includes Pedroia, Ellsbury, Lowrie, and Declarmen, much less Buchholz. The All Stars at every position was tried and it didn't work (see NYY 2000 - present). But if the Red Sox are able to blend cheap, productive home-grown players with a mix of talent they get from free agency, I don't see any reason that they should stop being competitive for the division.

Right - this is the point I was trying to make. If you can groom a player to become an everyday contributor at the top of one of the best lineups in baseball, that is an impact player. Impact does not necessarily mean all-star... so Pedroia might become nothing more than a gold glove 2B with a .290 BA, 100 runs, and 10 HR, and Ellsbury might become nothing more than a gold glove CF with a .310 BA, 15 HRs, 120 R, and 40 steals - those are exactly the types of players that will let the Red Sox go out and compete for World Series vicrtories every year. Just like the Yankees with Cano and Melky and Joba and Hughes, etc. And if you think all those Baseball America Top 100 players for the Rays are going to become perennial all-stars, you're a dreamer. Not because any of them might not be, but because maybe 1 out of every 20 or 30 top prospects go on to become all-star caliber players.
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Re: Rays will win AL East in the next three years

Postby jake_harv88 » Fri May 02, 2008 12:16 pm

Yet another thread hijacked by the red sox and yankees bias of the world :-t
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Re: Rays will win AL East in the next three years

Postby Matthias » Fri May 02, 2008 12:19 pm

jake_harv88 wrote:Yet another thread hijacked by the red sox and yankees bias of the world :-t

A thread about how the Rays will win the AL East is "hijacked" by other teams in the AL East talking about their team the next few years?

1 + 1 = 3? Yah... it doesn't add up.
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