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Deciding which closers to start?

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Re: Deciding which closers to start?

Postby jake_harv88 » Tue May 06, 2008 6:53 pm

NZ Eff wrote:
jake_harv88 wrote:
Man I told myself to be silent in this. :-D

You are definitely more guaranteed a save when two closers play each other because one of those teams has to win. When closes play separately you can't even guarantee a win.

'nough said ;-D



Ahhh, the old winning% to save % correlation theory.

MLB teams combined win 50 % of the time on average. That is obvious as for every winner there has to be a loser. That means that if you have 2 pitchers in two different games their team will on avg. win 50 % of the time. If you have 2 closers in the same game then each of their respective teams has a 50% chance of winning. This all evens out. Where it doesn't even out is on the save front. Only one save can be awarded for each game. Therefore in 15 games a year where you have both closers, in that game you can only get 1 save. Clear as mud.


Touche ;-D

At the end of the day I'm still not buying your theory. Closers will regress to the mean regardless of who they play and in what capacity they play them and arrive at some statistically predictable number of saves...
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Re: Deciding which closers to start?

Postby NZ Eff » Tue May 06, 2008 8:03 pm

jake_harv88 wrote:
NZ Eff wrote:
jake_harv88 wrote:
Man I told myself to be silent in this. :-D

You are definitely more guaranteed a save when two closers play each other because one of those teams has to win. When closes play separately you can't even guarantee a win.

'nough said ;-D



Ahhh, the old winning% to save % correlation theory.

MLB teams combined win 50 % of the time on average. That is obvious as for every winner there has to be a loser. That means that if you have 2 pitchers in two different games their team will on avg. win 50 % of the time. If you have 2 closers in the same game then each of their respective teams has a 50% chance of winning. This all evens out. Where it doesn't even out is on the save front. Only one save can be awarded for each game. Therefore in 15 games a year where you have both closers, in that game you can only get 1 save. Clear as mud.


Touche ;-D

At the end of the day I'm still not buying your theory. Closers will regress to the mean regardless of who they play and in what capacity they play them and arrive at some statistically predictable number of saves...


Fair enough, certainly not trying to ram it down your throat. Simply putting it out there for discussion.
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