THT indicates that his era is indicative of his actual performance right now, but a few things are odd to me. his K/BB rate is holding, so that is a good sign. however, his gb% his at almost 50% and it seems to be holding his hr/9 in check. now, if he can keep up this gb% he will probably have a decent year, but my question is: can he? the only time he came close to this kind of a gb% was a few years back in high A (or AA, either way he's a couple years removed from producing anything like this). anyone think this gb% isn't just a sample size induced fluke?
fbc_fan wrote:THT indicates that his era is indicative of his actual performance right now, but a few things are odd to me. his K/BB rate is holding, so that is a good sign. however, his gb% his at almost 50% and it seems to be holding his hr/9 in check. now, if he can keep up this gb% he will probably have a decent year, but my question is: can he? the only time he came close to this kind of a gb% was a few years back in high A (or AA, either way he's a couple years removed from producing anything like this). anyone think this gb% isn't just a sample size induced fluke?
I believe that GB% tends to normalize pretty quickly.
his improvement could have a lot to do with a great new pitch - the cutter.
as you point out his FIP is 3.12, which would indicate his results right now are in line with his performance. similarly, his QERA is 3.81. he's not really getting very lucky.
the question is just "can he maintain his performance".
fbc_fan wrote:THT indicates that his era is indicative of his actual performance right now, but a few things are odd to me. his K/BB rate is holding, so that is a good sign. however, his gb% his at almost 50% and it seems to be holding his hr/9 in check. now, if he can keep up this gb% he will probably have a decent year, but my question is: can he? the only time he came close to this kind of a gb% was a few years back in high A (or AA, either way he's a couple years removed from producing anything like this). anyone think this gb% isn't just a sample size induced fluke?
I believe that GB% tends to normalize pretty quickly.
his improvement could have a lot to do with a great new pitch - the cutter.
as you point out his FIP is 3.12, which would indicate his results right now are in line with his performance. similarly, his QERA is 3.81. he's not really getting very lucky.
the question is just "can he maintain his performance".
pretty much. but if qera is quick era, like i'm assuming it is, then it is highly dependent on his gb%. that is what is in question in my eyes. if he can keep pitching at a near 50% rate, he should be good. if that drops off significantly, i'm going to get scared.
This discussion should probably be re-opened. Outside of a mediocre start against the Twins about a week ago, he's been solid. He's only had two outings all year where he's given up over 3 ER.
It must be a new pitch or something, because I didn't expect this out of him, and I do wonder if he can keep it up. He now has a 2.80 ERA and 1.22 WHIP.
There's little chance he'll get 15 wins, probably finishing around 12 b/c his offense hates supporting him. He's basically halfway through the season at 6 wins and hasn't won his last 2-3 starts where he pitched brilliantly.
I think the big key for him is the GB rate, as everyone else indicated. One possibility is the fact that Danks has been throwing a cut fastball more, sawing off righthanders' bats pretty effectively. Ironically, it's not the more impressive 91-93 mph 4 seamer that actually is the key pitch, it's that 86-88 mph cutter.
If you look at his left/right splits, he has a .232 BAA vs. right-handers this year vs. .292 last season.
I don't expect him to keep his GB% up there quite so high, but there's no reason he can't be around 45% for the rest of the season while maintaining a decent K rate. I see him going on a 3.50-3.75 ERA pace from here on out, hurt by his home ballpark, which is terrible for him (3.89 ERA/1.39 WHIP home, 1.69 ERA, 1.05 WHIP away (!)).
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by fbc_fan » Tue May 06, 2008 1:02 pm 
