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Are these projections reasonable?

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Are these projections reasonable?

Postby Nomarrrrrrrrrr » Tue Apr 22, 2008 10:43 am

AB Avg Runs HR RBI SB
McCann 500 0.290 60 25 90 0
Pena 500 0.265 90 35 100 0
Kinsler 600 0.270 110 15 70 25
Wright 600 0.320 115 30 120 25
Multi SS 550 0.260 75 15 75 10
Beltran 550 0.270 90 30 100 15
Ichiro 600 0.340 110 10 60 35
Mclouth 600 0.280 90 20 70 30
Ankiel 500 0.270 70 30 90 0
Ellsbury 300 0.290 50 5 35 25
fill ins 200 0.270 20 7 30 2

The SS combo includes Hardy, Peralta, Crosby, Greene, and possibly Lugo. I currently have Crosby but these guys are all FAs. Ellsbury I only have as 300 AB because I have to decide between him and Ankiel and I need the power more. Ichiro's AB are also lower because I just traded for him.
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Re: Are these projections reasonable?

Postby Merlin401 » Tue Apr 22, 2008 1:49 pm

Nomarrrrrrrrrr wrote:AB Avg Runs HR RBI SB
McCann 500 0.290 60 25 90 0
Pena 500 0.265 90 35 100 0
Kinsler 600 0.270 110 15 70 25
Wright 600 0.320 115 30 120 25
Multi SS 550 0.260 75 15 75 10
Beltran 550 0.270 90 30 100 15
Ichiro 600 0.340 110 10 60 35
Mclouth 600 0.280 90 20 70 30
Ankiel 500 0.270 70 30 90 0
Ellsbury 300 0.290 50 5 35 25
fill ins 200 0.270 20 7 30 2

The SS combo includes Hardy, Peralta, Crosby, Greene, and possibly Lugo. I currently have Crosby but these guys are all FAs. Ellsbury I only have as 300 AB because I have to decide between him and Ankiel and I need the power more. Ichiro's AB are also lower because I just traded for him.


Seems fair... Ichiro is 35 now, he might regress. If you saw .320, 95, 10, 60, 25 I wouldn't be surprised.
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Re: Are these projections reasonable?

Postby RAmst23 » Tue Apr 22, 2008 2:26 pm

I agree with several, though I believe some are overly optimistic.

I'm not sure Ankiel is going to knock in 90, especially since the Cards are using a rotating OF and he'll probably see less playing time when Rasmus comes up. I'd knock his numbers down to .260 25 60/75. McLouth will have a hard time scoring 90 with that line-up, and he'll probably regress as the season goes on. Less power and SBs for him.
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Re: Are these projections reasonable?

Postby Nomarrrrrrrrrr » Tue Apr 22, 2008 3:14 pm

RAmst23 wrote:I agree with several, though I believe some are overly optimistic.

I'm not sure Ankiel is going to knock in 90, especially since the Cards are using a rotating OF and he'll probably see less playing time when Rasmus comes up. I'd knock his numbers down to .260 25 60/75. McLouth will have a hard time scoring 90 with that line-up, and he'll probably regress as the season goes on. Less power and SBs for him.


Less power and SB for Mclouth? The guy hit 13 and stole 22/23 in about half a season's worth of AB last season. (not sure how many of those SB were as a pinch runner). I don't think he is going to regress other than his average and RBI obviously so 20/30 doesn't see off to me at all. The 70 RBI might be high but he is off to such a great start there. If he leads off and hits .280+ all year he shouldn't have trouble scoring 85-90 runs with his speed and power. Ankiel I might agree with but if his numbers are lower because of fewer starts it won't matter too much, I'd just plug in someone else. Plus I was a little conservative on the power totals for Pena, Kinsler and my SS spot. Duncan is an FA in that league and has great numbers vs righties. I am trying to trade speed for power to replace Ankiel if he does fall off.

As for Ichiro I don't think he is slowing down and I hope he hits .330+ because I traded for him solely to get my average up. If my projections came true I'd have about 50 points from my offense which would be very nice.
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Re: Are these projections reasonable?

Postby RaginCajun77 » Tue Apr 22, 2008 3:21 pm

Looks fair. I am a beleiver in McLouth this year. I have watched him play 6 games against the Cubs and he is locked in. This team looks like it has alot of balance. Good move in adding Ichiro, he will no doubt lift your team AVG which will be a nice compliment to Pena's high power and low AVG.

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