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Selling High on Pat Burrell?

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Re: Selling High on Pat Burrell?

Postby hot4tx » Tue Apr 22, 2008 11:10 am

The only thing that will for sure fall is his avg.


When his average comes down from .360+ to the .250-.260 range, his R and RBI rate will come down with it. Right now he's on pace for 98 runs and 143 RBI. If he has a very good year for him and finishes 85-35-110-.275 that means he'll hit 72-28-91-.260 the rest of the his 434 or so at bats.

Also for those talking 40-45 HRs, he hit 37 HRs six years ago and except for that season has been a high-20s to low-30s HR hitter. He's 31 so it's not like he's a young guy still growing into his body. His quick start will probably give him a better than usual year, but I think 35-ish is a lot more reasonable for this season. Talking about him as a solid, consistent 40 HR per year guy means you haven't looked at his career numbers.
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Re: Selling High on Pat Burrell?

Postby Bwanna » Tue Apr 22, 2008 12:14 pm

Yesterday, I traded him for Ortiz in a CBS league, although I was probably more reluctant to do so than I should have been (due to the scoring system counting BB's like singles, and Ortiz only qualifying at DH). There have been 3 votes against the deal (4 are needed to cancel it), so we'll see what happens.

Even when Pat's average comes back down to earth, he'll continue to get on base due to his ability to take a walk, so he's got a lot of value in OBP/OPS leagues right now.
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Re: Selling High on Pat Burrell?

Postby kev921 » Tue Apr 22, 2008 12:21 pm

jfg wrote:My leagues too. Burrell's average is no mystery to anyone.


He's going to be the classic example of a player putting up numbers in a contract year. At least that was my hope when I bought him in our draft.
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Re: Selling High on Pat Burrell?

Postby J35J » Tue Apr 22, 2008 1:11 pm

hot4tx wrote:
The only thing that will for sure fall is his avg.


When his average comes down from .360+ to the .250-.260 range, his R and RBI rate will come down with it. Right now he's on pace for 98 runs and 143 RBI. If he has a very good year for him and finishes 85-35-110-.275 that means he'll hit 72-28-91-.260 the rest of the his 434 or so at bats.

Also for those talking 40-45 HRs, he hit 37 HRs six years ago and except for that season has been a high-20s to low-30s HR hitter. He's 31 so it's not like he's a young guy still growing into his body. His quick start will probably give him a better than usual year, but I think 35-ish is a lot more reasonable for this season. Talking about him as a solid, consistent 40 HR per year guy means you haven't looked at his career numbers.


He's easily a 30/100 guy if given 500+ABs....thats my only concern for him. 3 of the last 4 years he hasn't reached 500 ABs which is why his HR totals are high 20's low 30's. And 31 is still a pretty prime year as far as power goes. Like I said, I own him in OPS leagues so his value is a little higher than normal 5x5. If anyone is a buyer I'll gladly sell though..... :-)
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Re: Selling High on Pat Burrell?

Postby Yoda » Tue Apr 22, 2008 1:14 pm

J35J wrote:
hot4tx wrote:
The only thing that will for sure fall is his avg.


When his average comes down from .360+ to the .250-.260 range, his R and RBI rate will come down with it. Right now he's on pace for 98 runs and 143 RBI. If he has a very good year for him and finishes 85-35-110-.275 that means he'll hit 72-28-91-.260 the rest of the his 434 or so at bats.

Also for those talking 40-45 HRs, he hit 37 HRs six years ago and except for that season has been a high-20s to low-30s HR hitter. He's 31 so it's not like he's a young guy still growing into his body. His quick start will probably give him a better than usual year, but I think 35-ish is a lot more reasonable for this season. Talking about him as a solid, consistent 40 HR per year guy means you haven't looked at his career numbers.


He's easily a 30/100 guy if given 500+ABs....thats my only concern for him. 3 of the last 4 years he hasn't reached 500 ABs which is why his HR totals are high 20's low 30's. And 31 is still a pretty prime year as far as power goes. Like I said, I own him in OPS leagues so his value is a little higher than normal 5x5. If anyone is a buyer I'll gladly sell though..... :-)


Agreed. His power could easily peak this year.

Bwanna made a good trade getting Ortiz straight up for Burrell. I think if you can get that kind of value you should take it but Burrell should be pretty solid this year.
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Re: Selling High on Pat Burrell?

Postby slomo007 » Tue Apr 22, 2008 1:24 pm

Sell high.....you are looking at one of the streakiest hitters in the modern era. Just take a look at his month by month stats for the past several years and you will see what I mean.
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Re: Selling High on Pat Burrell?

Postby The Cow » Tue Apr 22, 2008 1:28 pm

I smell a career year, but I would still sell high. Wow I bet someone could sell him to me.

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Re: Selling High on Pat Burrell?

Postby Leena » Tue Apr 22, 2008 6:14 pm

I loved that Burrell dropped to at least the 150th pick, even in OBP leagues. He's been a savior for me. I know the bad streak will come like always, but I'm riding The Bat all the way.
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Re: Selling High on Pat Burrell?

Postby Field » Tue Apr 22, 2008 7:01 pm

If you need pitching help and you have a viable OF replacement, I think you have to look at dealing him. We could be witnessing a Jermaine Dye type of career year, but it could also just be a hot month. If you look at his career stats, you'll notice that he's usually a fast starter. Trading him for a starter like Felix or Lincecum is a good idea.
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Re: Selling High on Pat Burrell?

Postby cooncoon69 » Tue Apr 22, 2008 9:13 pm

I just got proposed a trade. My conor jackson and dustin pedroia for his pat burrell. Should I take it?
I only have room for one of my players so im benching either pedroia or jackson every day.
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