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Tim Lincecum??

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Tim Lincecum??

Postby daniel80111 » Sun Apr 20, 2008 11:39 pm

Do you guys see him keeping this up? What type of season are you guys predicting out of him...right now it looks like he could be flat out dominant this year.
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Re: Tim Lincecum??

Postby Ender » Sun Apr 20, 2008 11:49 pm

His xFIP is 3.01, he is on a crappy team that isn't very good on defense. So no he wont' come close to keeping this up, he'll still be a very good pitcher though. I still wouldn't trade an 7th round pick for him though because the W's are just not there and in roto at least a SP with no W is borderline useless.
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Re: Tim Lincecum??

Postby NZ Eff » Sun Apr 20, 2008 11:50 pm

He's faced the Cardinals twice who besides Pujols are awful. He's faced the Padres once who besdies no one are offensively anemic and he's pitched against the Dodgers who haven't shown much yet either.
His Whip after pitching those 4 games is 1.39 with a BAA .271 :-t He has been very lucky that his ERA is not much higher.

I'm not a believer at all in second year pitchers. I know this guy does have great natural ability and I've witnessed this in the 4-5 games I've seen him pitch in. He will have a great k/9 but I wouldn't expect any improvment on his ERA and Whip ratios from 2007.
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Re: Tim Lincecum??

Postby The Big Train » Mon Apr 21, 2008 1:26 am

NZ Eff wrote:
His Whip after pitching those 4 games is 1.39 with a BAA .271 :-t He has been very lucky that his ERA is not much higher.

I'm not a believer at all in second year pitchers. I know this guy does have great natural ability and I've witnessed this in the 4-5 games I've seen him pitch in. He will have a great k/9 but I wouldn't expect any improvment on his ERA and Whip ratios from 2007.


Unlucky in another regard, however: his current BABIP is .378. Before Saturday's game it was a ridiculous .436. I'm not making much out of a 1.39 WHIP at this point; if his BABIP normalizes, the WHIP should come down. While his ERA will certainly correct when his high strand rate normalizes, I still can't imagine him not improving on a 4.00 ERA.
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Re: Tim Lincecum??

Postby zhutou » Mon Apr 21, 2008 1:34 am

you guys are making it seem like we're talking about some flash in the pan pitcher here. i can't see why tim lincecum can't put up similar numbers to hamels' 2nd year. it's not like the kid doesn't have talent.
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Re: Tim Lincecum??

Postby jcde7ago » Mon Apr 21, 2008 2:13 am

NZ Eff wrote:He's faced the Cardinals twice who besides Pujols are awful. He's faced the Padres once who besdies no one are offensively anemic and he's pitched against the Dodgers who haven't shown much yet either.
His Whip after pitching those 4 games is 1.39 with a BAA .271 :-t He has been very lucky that his ERA is not much higher.

I'm not a believer at all in second year pitchers. I know this guy does have great natural ability and I've witnessed this in the 4-5 games I've seen him pitch in. He will have a great k/9 but I wouldn't expect any improvment on his ERA and Whip ratios from 2007.


Yes, the 12-7 Cardinals are awful besides Pujols. Especially Ryan Ludwick, who's hitting .395 with 4 homers and 11 RBI in a PLATOON situaiton nonetheless, or his platoon mate Skip Schumaker who's hitting a cool .333 with a homer, 5 RBI, 16 runs and 3 stolen bags, or Chris Duncan who's hitting .325 with a 2/6/10 line, or Rick Ankiel with 4 homers, 11 rbi and 10 runs of his own...give me a break. The Cardinals were the hottest team in the MLB to begin the season, and it took the lowly Giants and more specifically, Lincecum, to bring them down a notch. You cannot justify Lincecum's superb performance thus far on the other team being crappy when they are far from it.

Now, will Lincecum continue this pace? Probably not. But there is no reason to think that he can't be a top 15 pitcher this year or that he won't improve on last year's numbers...that's just foolish. That's like saying that after Johan's first full year in the majors that there was NO WAY he could improve upon his numbers. I love how non-chalant people are when they toss out crap like "i wouldn't expect any improvement in ERA and WHIP" like it's Odalis Perez we're talking about here. Yeah he might not get a lot of wins, but as it stands, the kid is 3-0, and the Giants as a whole are 4-0 in his starts, he'll k close to 200 batters and his peripherals will be fine. Take it for what it's worth, but i'd love to be in leagues with people trying to "sell high" on Timmy, cause i am buying every time.
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Re: Tim Lincecum??

Postby Spartans Rule » Mon Apr 21, 2008 2:25 am

I see lots to like with Lincecum.

His K rate has been great as expected. Walk rate isn't great but not terrible, and it's improved from last year. No homers allowed. BABIP is all that's really killing him.

And from watching a couple of his starts, you can see the bad luck he's had on balls in play. Lots of poorly hit balls finding the holes in the defense. His stuff is dominant, no question about it.

My favorite Lincecum stat is that during his brief stint in the minors, he struck out 44% of the batters he faced. I know it's the minors, and a small sample size, but still... how absurd is that?
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Re: Tim Lincecum??

Postby freeling_prideful » Mon Apr 21, 2008 2:29 am

Lincecum's an interesting case, I don't think he will be that much more valuable than a guy like Javier Vazquez this season. He will definitely put up close to 200 K's and perhaps even get close to 15 W. But the fact is that he does not have stellar control (3.5 BB/9 this season, 4 BB/9 last year) and he also doesn't have a well-developed changeup. I don't think it's an accident that guys who have early success in the majors tend to have elite changes, including Hamels and less heralded prospects like James Shields (further back in history you have Johan Santana, who really took the jump from fringe prospect to elite SP when he learned the change).

I'm going to give Lincecum the benefit of the doubt but also be conservative: I project him for a 3.70 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 13 W and 195 K (I'm guessing he pitches about 185 IP this season, he's young and the Giants should limit his innings if they aren't in contention).
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Re: Tim Lincecum??

Postby giambiformvp » Mon Apr 21, 2008 7:30 am

With Lincecum, his ERA is low but his WHIP is high because when runners get on base he has the ability to strike guys out and strand the runners.
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Re: Tim Lincecum??

Postby Yoda » Mon Apr 21, 2008 9:23 am

NZ Eff wrote:He's faced the Cardinals twice who besides Pujols are awful. He's faced the Padres once who besdies no one are offensively anemic and he's pitched against the Dodgers who haven't shown much yet either.
His Whip after pitching those 4 games is 1.39 with a BAA .271 :-t He has been very lucky that his ERA is not much higher.

I'm not a believer at all in second year pitchers. I know this guy does have great natural ability and I've witnessed this in the 4-5 games I've seen him pitch in. He will have a great k/9 but I wouldn't expect any improvment on his ERA and Whip ratios from 2007.


You are a funny guy NZ Eff. You definitely should get a jester mask. :-D
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