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Let's Contemplate Scott Olsen

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Re: Let's Contemplate Scott Olsen

Postby bigh0rt » Tue May 06, 2008 11:54 pm

NZ Eff wrote:
jake_harv88 wrote:
Right so hes part of the 70% of second year players that REGRESS (digress was a poor choice of words i think, but thats just me digressing), for which there is considerable evidence for floating around on this site yet no one can find :-D :-b


Exactly.

viewtopic.php?f=7&t=32817&p=242351&hilit=second+year+pitcher+slumps#p242351

That took me 10 seconds to find and that was posted 4 years ago. There have been many more since.

You used a sample size of 53 pitchers and are using the conclusion drawn, by you, to pretend its something that can even laughably be described conclusive evidence. Now that is hysterical. Not sure what kind of math they're teaching down there, but it gave me a good chuckle. Top notch research, with the kicker being you've been not only foolish, but a punk for 4 years. Good stuff.
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Re: Let's Contemplate Scott Olsen

Postby AussieDodger » Wed May 07, 2008 12:23 am

bigh0rt wrote:
NZ Eff wrote:
jake_harv88 wrote:
Right so hes part of the 70% of second year players that REGRESS (digress was a poor choice of words i think, but thats just me digressing), for which there is considerable evidence for floating around on this site yet no one can find :-D :-b


Exactly.

viewtopic.php?f=7&t=32817&p=242351&hilit=second+year+pitcher+slumps#p242351

That took me 10 seconds to find and that was posted 4 years ago. There have been many more since.

You used a sample size of 53 pitchers and are using the conclusion drawn, by you, to pretend its something that can even laughably be described conclusive evidence. Now that is hysterical. Not sure what kind of math they're teaching down there, but it gave me a good chuckle. Top notch research, with the kicker being you've been not only foolish, but a punk for 4 years. Good stuff.


Hey we all know that the New Zealand education system sucks.
I would love to help you bash it, but this isn't the right place to do it ;-D
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Re: Let's Contemplate Scott Olsen

Postby NZ Eff » Wed May 07, 2008 12:37 am

bigh0rt wrote:
NZ Eff wrote:
jake_harv88 wrote:
Right so hes part of the 70% of second year players that REGRESS (digress was a poor choice of words i think, but thats just me digressing), for which there is considerable evidence for floating around on this site yet no one can find :-D :-b


Exactly.

viewtopic.php?f=7&t=32817&p=242351&hilit=second+year+pitcher+slumps#p242351

That took me 10 seconds to find and that was posted 4 years ago. There have been many more since.

You used a sample size of 53 pitchers and are using the conclusion drawn, by you, to pretend its something that can even laughably be described conclusive evidence. Now that is hysterical. Not sure what kind of math they're teaching down there, but it gave me a good chuckle. Top notch research, with the kicker being you've been not only foolish, but a punk for 4 years. Good stuff.



I thought I had no research, how can you bash something that doesn't exist? Punk.

For those that matter the research has now been expanded over 8 years and obviously incorporates a much larger sample size. These results have shown a consistent % of regression among first year pitchers of around 70%.
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Re: Let's Contemplate Scott Olsen

Postby mak1277 » Wed May 07, 2008 8:47 am

FantasyFreak wrote:good outing tonight against the brewers...he's put up impressive numbers so far. Does he have his '06 form back?


Having such a good outing against the Brewers has me convinced he's back. They usually demolish lefties.
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Re: Let's Contemplate Scott Olsen

Postby flloyd » Wed May 07, 2008 10:15 am

His FIP suggest he's been one of the luckiest pitchers. I'm not buying.

Code: Select all
http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/index.php?view=pitching&linesToDisplay=50&orderBy=fipMinusEra&direction=DESC&qual_filter=1&season_filter[]=2008&league_filter[]=All&team_filter[]=All&Submit=Submit
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Re: Let's Contemplate Scott Olsen

Postby rjforlife » Wed May 07, 2008 11:50 am

His IWHPTS is excellent this year, so I am buying. Thats "I watched him pitch this season" for anyone who didnt know. ;-)
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Re: Let's Contemplate Scott Olsen

Postby Yoda » Wed May 07, 2008 11:56 am

NZ Eff wrote:
jake_harv88 wrote:
Right so hes part of the 70% of second year players that REGRESS (digress was a poor choice of words i think, but thats just me digressing), for which there is considerable evidence for floating around on this site yet no one can find :-D :-b


Exactly.

viewtopic.php?f=7&t=32817&p=242351&hilit=second+year+pitcher+slumps#p242351

That took me 10 seconds to find and that was posted 4 years ago. There have been many more since.


LOL that 'study' is a complete joke as I suspected.

You don't even consider the talent with the group that improved versus the group that regressed.
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Re: Let's Contemplate Scott Olsen

Postby Ender » Wed May 07, 2008 12:34 pm

mak1277 wrote:
FantasyFreak wrote:good outing tonight against the brewers...he's put up impressive numbers so far. Does he have his '06 form back?


Having such a good outing against the Brewers has me convinced he's back. They usually demolish lefties.


Brewers haven't been demolishing anything lately. That is the second really good game he has had against them.

I've given up trying to figure out Olsen, he could completely explode and be useless after a bad game so I'd personally sell him. I don't really like having head case types on my roster.
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Re: Let's Contemplate Scott Olsen

Postby Pokeyouindaeye » Wed May 07, 2008 2:23 pm

I can't say I like his K rate, or the fact that his babip is around .208.

I'd look to sell high on both Olsen and Floyd so far this year. There aren't that many successful pitchers who walk as many batters as they strike out.
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Re: Let's Contemplate Scott Olsen

Postby NZ Eff » Wed May 07, 2008 5:21 pm

Yoda wrote:
LOL that 'study' is a complete joke as I suspected.

You don't even consider the talent with the group that improved versus the group that regressed.



Why is that relevant? Isn't that stating the obvious? The purpose of the study was to identify pitchers that could be great sleepers moving into their third year (ie. those that improved in their second) more than expecting a 70% regression among second year guys.

This theory threw up Jake Peavy as I mentioned in February '04 as a guy to target and look what happened. I also mentioned Garland who in 2005 was talked about in CY voting.
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