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April, Stats, and Decisions

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April, Stats, and Decisions

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sun Apr 20, 2008 1:29 pm

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fanta ... eaningful/

A good summary, and a link to a longer but even better article on why you should not rush to judgement about any of your players. The gist? Wait about 40 games before drawing conclusions.
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Re: April, Stats, and Decisions

Postby Matthias » Sun Apr 20, 2008 8:27 pm

And even then you can't draw much....

If I'm reading it right, you can only figure out once the season is over what someone's stable batting average is going to be (or perhaps once you have a sample of past seasons), home run hitters show themselves around the ASB, and home run GB/FB tendences should stabilize at the end of May.

Nice link, GTWMA.
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Re: April, Stats, and Decisions

Postby bleach168 » Sun Apr 20, 2008 11:17 pm

Matthias wrote:And even then you can't draw much....

If I'm reading it right, you can only figure out once the season is over what someone's stable batting average is going to be (or perhaps once you have a sample of past seasons), home run hitters show themselves around the ASB, and home run GB/FB tendences should stabilize at the end of May.

Nice link, GTWMA.


Well, you can get a pretty good idea of what batting average you can expect around the 150 PA mark because that's when contact rate and LD% stabilize.

Good stuff though. Fantasy vets understand that you need to be patient early on and it's nice to have it quantified in some way.
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Re: April, Stats, and Decisions

Postby mtxdevil » Sun Apr 20, 2008 11:36 pm

Good reads. :-)
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