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Crawford or Byrd

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Postby Guest » Tue Feb 24, 2004 8:41 am

i'm new to evaluating minor league careers of players.. how often does minor league success translate into MLB success? judging by those #'s Byrd looks really good. but is there a high-success rate of stellar minor leaguers like this, or is it a 50-50 crapshoot with these type of studs?
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Postby KULCAT » Tue Feb 24, 2004 9:45 am

shortsavage wrote:Hmmmm, I wasn't going to comment on this one because I didn't want to take a low shot, but I guess you actually are making sense to some people.

If a player who is yet to play an entire season is not worthy of dethroning a "proven" big league player, why is Josh Beckett getting so many serious looks? Or why should Miguel Cabrera garner a significant draft bid.

And what were people thinking when they took Prior last season :-o?

Your points do hold true on occation. But you have to have faith in certain young players if you want to have consistant success in fantasy baseball.


I agree with taking risks on some occations but most of the times you go with the proven guy
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Tue Feb 24, 2004 1:58 pm

Anonymous wrote:i'm new to evaluating minor league careers of players.. how often does minor league success translate into MLB success? judging by those #'s Byrd looks really good. but is there a high-success rate of stellar minor leaguers like this, or is it a 50-50 crapshoot with these type of studs?


Obviously, you can't just go from minor league numbers to major league numbers. In looking at minor league numbers, it's good to adjust for level of play, age (e.g., it means much more when a 21 year old does well at AAA than when a 27 year old does the same thing), park adjustments, and league adjustments (some leagues, even at the same level, are tougher than others).

Some of the best data are available at Baseball Prospectus. The MLE (major league equivalence) data make many of these adjustments and set the average major leaguer at a MLE of .260. So, if you look at a minor leaguer's MLE, and it's above .260, you know that he's performing better than a major league average.

Of course, nothing is certain. But some of Bill James' first research showed the value of minor league data, if it was appropriately adjusted. It's still true today.
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Postby shortsavage » Tue Feb 24, 2004 7:08 pm

Do you have any responses Mr. Cocky? Are you still sticking with your philosophy?
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Postby Mr.Cocky! » Tue Feb 24, 2004 7:16 pm

I will concede that Byrd "could" be a better value pick than Crawford, but to say that Byrd will have 40-pluss steals is a big "Reach". If we are going to" Reach", then I say that because of his possible chance that he gets the "green light" this season, that Thome will get 20 steals, and therefore be the undisputed #1 1B pick.
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Postby shortsavage » Tue Feb 24, 2004 7:19 pm

Mr.Cocky! wrote:I will concede that Byrd "could" be a better value pick than Crawford, but to say that Byrd will have 40-pluss steals is a big "Reach". If we are going to" Reach", then I say that because of his possible chance that he gets the "green light" this season, that Thome will get 20 steals, and therefore be the undisputed #1 1B pick.


Haha, so no change :-D. Just out of curiousity, if you don't mind sharing, how many years have you been playing fantasy baseball?
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Postby Mr.Cocky! » Tue Feb 24, 2004 7:23 pm

I have been playing since 1998. I am not saying that Byrd is a bad player, I am just telling the message poster to swap Byrd for Crawford.
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Postby shortsavage » Tue Feb 24, 2004 7:40 pm

Mr.Cocky! wrote:I have been playing since 1998. I am not saying that Byrd is a bad player, I am just telling the message poster to swap Byrd for Crawford.


Yeah, I was more interested in your comments about unproven players.

Mr.Cocky! wrote:The guy (Marlon Byrd) has not surpassed Crawford yet, so untill he does, how can it be said that he is better and more valuable.


Mr.Cocky! wrote:All I am saying, is that with Crawford you know what you are getting, a ton of SB's. With Byrd, we are not sure what we are getting, because he has never had a full season as a starter.


How has your standing of not playing into players that are more prospective than proven treated you in the past?

What do you think of Josh Beckett and Miguel Cabrera?

What do you think of the phrase "the next big thing"?
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Postby Mr.Cocky! » Tue Feb 24, 2004 7:48 pm

I like Cabrera and Beckett as fantasy players, but if someone asked if they should trade Cabrera for Chavez I would say do it. Or if they should trade Beckett for Mussina I would say do it. If someone is going to trade you a proven player for an up and comer(sleeper) I would say take the trade, and get the proven guy.
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Postby shortsavage » Tue Feb 24, 2004 8:16 pm

Can a player with less mlb experience but better small sample size stats be worth more than a player with more mlb experience and lesser large sample size stats.

There are a lot of variables in comparing players, but would you trade Andy Pettitte for Josh Beckett in a yearly league?

What about Moyer for Beckett?
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