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Crawford or Byrd

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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Mon Feb 23, 2004 11:08 pm

Mr.Cocky! wrote:Byrd stole 11 bags in 485AB's. So assuming he gets 100 more AB's, we are expected to believe he will get 40 more SB's. Dang, time to put Byrd in the top 10 OF catagory.


Some people need to read. What part of "If they do..." was too difficult for you to understand.

Byrd's SB record in minor leagues:
2000, A ball: 41 SBs, 5 CS in 515 ABs.
2001, AA, 32 SBs, 5 CS, in 510 ABs
2002, AAA, 15 SBs, 1 CS in 542 ABs
2003, MLB, 11 SBs, 1 CS, in 495 ABs

In 2002 and 2003 he was not given a green light on the basepaths by the Phillies. It's possible that will continue. On theother hand, there have been several stories indicating that he'll be given the opportunity to do what he did in A and AA---where he was a better base-stealer than Crawford.

http://newyork.yankees.mlb.com/NASApp/m ... &fext=.jsp

If Byrd is given a green light, he has 30-50 steal potential. That combined with his other advantages over Crawford, will make him a very valuable pick.
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Postby Mr.Cocky! » Mon Feb 23, 2004 11:13 pm

The guy has not surpassed Crawford yet, so untill he does, how can it be said that he is better and more valuable. I can say that B.Crosby is better than Nomar, but untill he surpasses him I would be a fool to say so. I predict that Byrd will be very similar player to R.Winn, not C.Crawford. More runs, homers, and RBI's, than Crawford, but about 35 less SB's than Crawford.
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Postby shortsavage » Mon Feb 23, 2004 11:17 pm

Mr.Cocky! wrote:The guy has not surpassed Crawford yet, so untill he does, how can it be said that he is better and more valuable. I can say that B.Crosby is better than Nomar, but untill he surpasses him I would be a fool to say so. I predict that Byrd will be very similar player to R.Winn, not C.Crawford. More runs, homers, and RBI's, than Crawford, but about 35 less SB's than Crawford.


You may want to plug some holes in your logic and try again :-X.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Mon Feb 23, 2004 11:19 pm

shortsavage wrote:Nice post GTWMA. I am a big Byrd fan myself. However, I do not think he should currently be valued more than Crawford in a keeper league because he is 4 years older and Crawford has already tapped more of his potential.


I think that depends on whether or not you see your team as a possible contender this year. If I'm close to the top, I hang on to Byrd, because he's near peak and will probably be more valuable in 3-5 categories (my league also values OPS, where Byrd again dominates Crawford). Crawford's value is entirely dependent on his speed, so he's one twingy hanstricg from having no value at all.

If I'm a second division team in the league, then I make this trade, because Crawford's peak will roll in at the time you should be able to get the rest of your team peaking.

That might also depend on how deep a keeper league this is.
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Postby Mr.Cocky! » Mon Feb 23, 2004 11:34 pm

All I am saying, is that with Crawford you know what you are getting, a ton of SB's. With Byrd, we are not sure what we are getting, because he has never had a full season as a starter. Could he be better, yes. Will he be better?, who knows. It's kind of like the Austin Kearns theory, he got hurt last year so we do not know exactly what this kid can do. Does he look like a stud?, yes. Is he a stud?, who knows. I can say he will be a better fantasy player than Chipper Jones, because he has more potential, but untill he puts together a full season, who knows?
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Postby ondeckb » Tue Feb 24, 2004 12:00 am

Mr.Cocky! wrote:The guy has not surpassed Crawford yet, so untill he does, how can it be said that he is better and more valuable. I can say that B.Crosby is better than Nomar, but untill he surpasses him I would be a fool to say so. I predict that Byrd will be very similar player to R.Winn, not C.Crawford. More runs, homers, and RBI's, than Crawford, but about 35 less SB's than Crawford.


I think Cocky has nailed this one.... ;-D
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Postby shortsavage » Tue Feb 24, 2004 12:08 am

Hmmmm, I wasn't going to comment on this one because I didn't want to take a low shot, but I guess you actually are making sense to some people.

If a player who is yet to play an entire season is not worthy of dethroning a "proven" big league player, why is Josh Beckett getting so many serious looks? Or why should Miguel Cabrera garner a significant draft bid.

And what were people thinking when they took Prior last season :-o?

Your points do hold true on occation. But you have to have faith in certain young players if you want to have consistant success in fantasy baseball.
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Postby LBJackal » Tue Feb 24, 2004 12:19 am

Crawford will probably steal 2 or 3 times as many bases as Byrd, and be fairly close in the other cats except runs. I'll take the 40 extra SB's over 15 or so extra runs any day.

Byrd may well have been as good and frequent at stealing bases on the minors, but "if he gets the green light" is a pretty big "if". He didn't last year. But he had a good SB success rate, so more steals should be in the works for him since he's batting at the top of the order. They let Jimmy Rollins run the few times he got on base last season, and he has a bad success rate (67%) so you never know how they'll deal with Byrd. We know Crawford will run whenever he gets the chance, so that's why he's more valuable than Byrd in fantasy.

And to whomever said Crawford is a proven stolen base monster, what is your definition of proven? Because I don't think it should include players with one full season of experience in the majors.
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Postby mtarail » Tue Feb 24, 2004 12:28 am

Crawford

Byrd projected to steal 40? Are you an Enron accountant? Byrd's HR and RBI #'s are subpar and until he proves to me he can steal 30+ I'll take Crawford and his 55.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Tue Feb 24, 2004 12:43 am

The comparison between Byrd and Winn is laughable.

Now, the comparison between them is not easy to interpret, since Winn was always a level above Byrd at the same age, but.

At age 22 Winn was posting a crappy 653 OPS in A+
At age 22, Byrd was posting a stellar 911 OPA in A-

At age 23, Winn was posting a reasonable 795 OPS in AA
At age 23, Byrd was posting another excellent 894 OPS in A+

At age 24, Winn was posting an unimpressive 744 OPS in AAA and a 704 OPS in MLB.
At age 24, Byrd posted an outstanding 941 OPS in AA.

At age 25, Winn posted a strong 924 OPS in AAA and a crappy 673 OPS in MLB
At age 25, Byrd posted a 784 OPS in MLB.

It takes Winn 3 more years in MLB to get to Byrd's level of ML production at age 25.

Overall in A ball, Byrd hit 30 HRs. Winn hit zero.
In AA ball, Winn had 48 ABs per HR. Byrd had 18 ABs per HR.

In AAA ball, Winn had 57 ABs per HR. Byrd had 36.

Adjust those for level/age all you want. You still get Byrd being so much better than Winn it's not even worth discussing.
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