Chris Young SD

[dorje3]

I heard some concern over Young, who held opposing batters to below the mendoza line last year (and close to it the year before), during spring training - centered on his FB, which was topping out in the high 80s, and the looming possibilty of residual injury.
He got into a pretty bad mess this evening (3 IP 7H 6ER 4BB 2K), but I've been concerned for quite some time now. I suppose I didn't do enough research before drafting Young, but a month ago I was under the impression that he was healthy and ready to go.
Any thoughts on Young?

[Sp_Da_Man]

Tonight was pretty ugly from the highlights I saw. Tonight was a real bad outing obviously.

The thing with Young has been that he throws alot of pitches & doesn't get real deep into ball games. But, he's got a ton of potential, shown flashes & pitches in the best pitchers park out there.

Still a ton of upside & still should outperform his adp by years end imo.

[byfrcp]

The fact that you didn't post this before the game clearly shows that you're looking at this 1 start and thinking he's bad. It was a bad game...

[cool Daddy]

Unlike Oswalt, this is a guy to trade for.

[wildbill]

Unlike Oswalt, this is a guy to trade for.

I think Young's a bit overrated, much like Bonderman was in past years. Last year Young had a 4.33 ERA in April and a 4.80 ERA after the allstar break, which included a 5.48 in august and a 6.27 in September. That would seem to indicate he's a slow starter and became fatigued in the 2nd half of the season. He's still a young (no pun intended) pitcher so maybe he'll overcome last years fatigue factor, but it's a little like going to Vegas and rolling the dice at this point. So I would agree trade for him now but be ready to unload him in the 2nd half if he displays and signs of breaking down again.

[Za_German]

I'd keep an eye on him for sure. Remember when he was coming up as a prospect for the Rangers he had problems towards the end of each season with fatigue and minor injuries. We'll never know what the prognosis of the injuries were, but whatever it was it lead the Rangers staff to look to trade him because of questions regarding his durability. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying the Rangers front office is competent by any means (they traded Young & Adrian Gonzalez for, get this: Adam Eaton, Akinori Otsuka, and Billy Killian!!!). Still, I think there may be some durability concerns here. If he bounces back early this season you may want to sell high if you've got depth in your bullpen.

[jswede]

Unlike Oswalt, this is a guy to trade for.

I think Young's a bit overrated, much like Bonderman was in past years. Last year Young had a 4.33 ERA in April and a 4.80 ERA after the allstar break, which included a 5.48 in august and a 6.27 in September. That would seem to indicate he's a slow starter and became fatigued in the 2nd half of the season. He's still a young (no pun intended) pitcher so maybe he'll overcome last years fatigue factor, but it's a little like going to Vegas and rolling the dice at this point. So I would agree trade for him now but be ready to unload him in the 2nd half if he displays and signs of breaking down again.

Agree with Cool Daddy.

Not sure about the Bonderman comparison, unless he gives you that "Bonderman, it's going to get worse from here, feel".... Young has lower Whip and BA against, but walks a few more. Further, looking at the overall trends, I don't see the parallel:

Bonderman : Young

2004> 4.89 : 4.71
2005> 4.57 : 4.26
2006> 4.08 : 3.46
2007> 5.01 : 3.12

They started off close, but there's been a bit of a divergence... overall career BA against is .211 for Young, .268 for Bonderman.

In 2007, he did have an average April, then a poor Aug/Sep -- in between, however, his era was 1.13, 1.52, 0.41 in 15 starts May-June. I'd take that overall 3.12era again this year, no matter how volatile he is from month to month. Looking at his last 4 years, we could maybe expect a sub-3 this year. Remember he's now in Petco for the 2nd year.

As far as dropping off late in season, true for last year, but he was a 4.13 and 2.56 in Aug/Sep 06; 3.51 and 3.86 in Aug/Sep 05. Both stretches well below his respective season eras.

He's just a bit erratic for some stretches at a timer, but overall he's SOLID, and this may be a good time to go in with a bid to get him...

[dorje3]

Young tops the "buy lows who won't pay off list" in the Leftovers forum:
viewtopic.php?t=337363
Looks like others are worried too.
Any other thoughts?

[jdsun1]

Young tops the "buy lows who won't pay off list" in the Leftovers forum:
viewtopic.php?t=337363
Looks like others are worried too.
Any other thoughts?

Others are idiots obviously. I think Sabathia and Oswalt are the obvious buy lows to avoid.

[Secret Avatar]

I think the key to any "buy low" strategy on pitchers is whether their early struggles are related to an injury or just some rust or bad outings. Young I think will come around as will Oz. But I'm avoiding CC. He's a 300-pounder who has thrown a TON of innings the last three years (241 last year I think) and it looks like it may be catching up to him. If you can get him real cheap, it might be worth a gamble. But otherwise I'd rather speculate on a cheaper young gun like Ian Snell, Ervin Santana, Jon Sanchez, Kuo, etc.