cool Daddy wrote:Unlike Oswalt, this is a guy to trade for.
I think Young's a bit overrated, much like Bonderman was in past years. Last year Young had a 4.33 ERA in April and a 4.80 ERA after the allstar break, which included a 5.48 in august and a 6.27 in September. That would seem to indicate he's a slow starter and became fatigued in the 2nd half of the season. He's still a young (no pun intended) pitcher so maybe he'll overcome last years fatigue factor, but it's a little like going to Vegas and rolling the dice at this point. So I would agree trade for him now but be ready to unload him in the 2nd half if he displays and signs of breaking down again.
Agree with Cool Daddy.
Not sure about the Bonderman comparison, unless he gives you that "Bonderman, it's going to get worse from here, feel".... Young has lower Whip and BA against, but walks a few more. Further, looking at the overall trends, I don't see the parallel:
Bonderman : Young
2004> 4.89 : 4.71
2005> 4.57 : 4.26
2006> 4.08 : 3.46
2007> 5.01 : 3.12
They started off close, but there's been a bit of a divergence... overall career BA against is .211 for Young, .268 for Bonderman.
In 2007, he did have an average April, then a poor Aug/Sep -- in between, however, his era was 1.13, 1.52, 0.41 in 15 starts May-June. I'd take that overall 3.12era again this year, no matter how volatile he is from month to month. Looking at his last 4 years, we could maybe expect a sub-3 this year. Remember he's now in Petco for the 2nd year.
As far as dropping off late in season, true for last year, but he was a 4.13 and 2.56 in Aug/Sep 06; 3.51 and 3.86 in Aug/Sep 05. Both stretches well below his respective season eras.
He's just a bit erratic for some stretches at a timer, but overall he's SOLID, and this may be a good time to go in with a bid to get him...