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Tulowitzki: buy low or avoid?

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Re: Tulowitzki: buy low or avoid?

Postby CineMamet » Sun Apr 13, 2008 3:16 am

tinfoilxtouch wrote:I think he'll turn it around and hit something like .290 with 25 HR. The problem with trying to buy low on a guy like Tulo is that the owner is generally too invested into him to give up, even long after it's obvious he's a bust. Most people reached and picked Tulo earlier than they should have anyway. Combine the fact that he was probably the owner's 4th round pick with the fact that he probably doesn't have any other viable SS option, and he's going to go down with the ship before he lets him go.


Yeah, I think that it's really a matter of dearth at the SS position. You have the first tier of Hanley and Reyes. Then the 2nd tier which is really a first round pick in JRoll. And then a few rounds later, Tulo. If he didn't get him, he would get "stuck" with Jeter, Tejada or someone mediocre like Hardy, Cabrera, Renteria, etc. It's sort of like the catcher position with Tulo either being Jorge Posada or lumped into the rest of the interchangables.
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Re: Tulowitzki: buy low or avoid?

Postby Millhouse » Sun Apr 13, 2008 9:27 am

right now, knock wood, i'm glad i have furcal (drafted in 8th round) over tulo (who was drafted in the 5th)
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Re: Tulowitzki: buy low or avoid?

Postby Matthias » Sun Apr 13, 2008 9:39 am

Ender wrote:Coors is a big time second half park

Do you have anything to support this? Sure, I guess it's cool up in Colorado now, but temps everywhere should be going up as we get to June.
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Re: Tulowitzki: buy low or avoid?

Postby Ender » Sun Apr 13, 2008 9:49 am

Matthias wrote:
Ender wrote:Coors is a big time second half park

Do you have anything to support this? Sure, I guess it's cool up in Colorado now, but temps everywhere should be going up as we get to June.



Nope it is an assumption based on watching baseball so it could be wrong, I don't know of a good way to research it. It seems like every year since they added the humidor that their pitching starts off strong and tails off and the hitting starts off weak and gets stronger.
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Re: Tulowitzki: buy low or avoid?

Postby rookies and cream » Sun Apr 13, 2008 9:53 am

Ender wrote:
Matthias wrote:
Ender wrote:Coors is a big time second half park

Do you have anything to support this? Sure, I guess it's cool up in Colorado now, but temps everywhere should be going up as we get to June.



Nope it is an assumption based on watching baseball so it could be wrong, I don't know of a good way to research it. It seems like every year since they added the humidor that their pitching starts off strong and tails off and the hitting starts off weak and gets stronger.


Well, their pitching has definitely NOT started out strong this year. !+)
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Re: Tulowitzki: buy low or avoid?

Postby Matthias » Sun Apr 13, 2008 10:15 am

Ender wrote:
Matthias wrote:
Ender wrote:Coors is a big time second half park

Do you have anything to support this? Sure, I guess it's cool up in Colorado now, but temps everywhere should be going up as we get to June.

Nope it is an assumption based on watching baseball so it could be wrong, I don't know of a good way to research it. It seems like every year since they added the humidor that their pitching starts off strong and tails off and the hitting starts off weak and gets stronger.

Well, you would want to look at park effects, by month or maybe 1st half/2nd half, over a 5-year span or so.
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Re: Tulowitzki: buy low or avoid?

Postby Yoda » Sun Apr 13, 2008 10:30 am

I thought Tulo was a bit overrated coming in this year. He's probably a good guy to buy low right now but it is way too early yet. If he is still struggling by June then I'd definitely target him.
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Re: Tulowitzki: buy low or avoid?

Postby The Jury » Sun Apr 13, 2008 11:39 am

He's definitely a "buy low" to me. Tulo is still on the up and he continues to develop his skills every year. I would try to take advantage of his slow start.
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Re: Tulowitzki: buy low or avoid?

Postby RoxSox8 » Mon Apr 14, 2008 12:04 am

CineMamet wrote:
tinfoilxtouch wrote:I think he'll turn it around and hit something like .290 with 25 HR. The problem with trying to buy low on a guy like Tulo is that the owner is generally too invested into him to give up, even long after it's obvious he's a bust. Most people reached and picked Tulo earlier than they should have anyway. Combine the fact that he was probably the owner's 4th round pick with the fact that he probably doesn't have any other viable SS option, and he's going to go down with the ship before he lets him go.


Yeah, I think that it's really a matter of dearth at the SS position. You have the first tier of Hanley and Reyes. Then the 2nd tier which is really a first round pick in JRoll. And then a few rounds later, Tulo. If he didn't get him, he would get "stuck" with Jeter, Tejada or someone mediocre like Hardy, Cabrera, Renteria, etc. It's sort of like the catcher position with Tulo either being Jorge Posada or lumped into the rest of the interchangables.


You forgot C. Guillen, who is comparable to Tejada.
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Re: Tulowitzki: buy low or avoid?

Postby CineMamet » Mon Apr 14, 2008 12:19 am

RoxSox8 wrote:
CineMamet wrote:
tinfoilxtouch wrote:I think he'll turn it around and hit something like .290 with 25 HR. The problem with trying to buy low on a guy like Tulo is that the owner is generally too invested into him to give up, even long after it's obvious he's a bust. Most people reached and picked Tulo earlier than they should have anyway. Combine the fact that he was probably the owner's 4th round pick with the fact that he probably doesn't have any other viable SS option, and he's going to go down with the ship before he lets him go.


Yeah, I think that it's really a matter of dearth at the SS position. You have the first tier of Hanley and Reyes. Then the 2nd tier which is really a first round pick in JRoll. And then a few rounds later, Tulo. If he didn't get him, he would get "stuck" with Jeter, Tejada or someone mediocre like Hardy, Cabrera, Renteria, etc. It's sort of like the catcher position with Tulo either being Jorge Posada or lumped into the rest of the interchangables.


You forgot C. Guillen, who is comparable to Tejada.


You're right, he completely slipped my mind. I would say he's better than Tejada because he'll probably end up with a higher batting avg, steal more bases, and qualifies at 1st base as well. I think he's also still underrated a bit whereas Tejada is still overrated even in a revamped Houston lineup.
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