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When's it time to ride the pine?

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Re: When's it time to ride the pine?

Postby deutschland » Wed Apr 09, 2008 6:03 pm

BALCO All-Stars wrote:
deutschland wrote:i don't understand your reasoning on Ordonez having 1 good year in the last 4. he was injured in 04 and 05. He has consistenly proven himself as a top fantasy OF in every full season he has played since 1999.


I agree with you that he's a solid OF, but not a can't bench type of guy:

2007: 157 games .363, 117 R, 28 HR, 139 RBI STUD, but can't keep that .363 average this year, which in turn should decrease his R and RBI
2006: 155 games .298, 82 R, 24 HR, 104 RBI = solid, but nothing special. 26th best OF in 5x5 yahoo rankings.
2005: 82 games .302, 38 R, 8 HR, 46 RBI = hurt, but numbers were not good while playing, extrapolate for full season = 76 R, 16 HR, 92 RBI = blah
2004: 52 games .292, 32 R, 9 HR, 37 RBI = hurt, extrapolate for full season = 96 R, 27 HR, 111 RBI - solid, but again, nothing uber-special
2003: 160 games .317, 95 R, 29 HR, 99 RBI, 9 SB = solid, but again, nothing special
1999-2002: STUD, 5 tool guy, but he was in his late 20's back then and does not steal anymore.

He's older (turned 34 in January), and IMO, his ceiling is .300 100 R, 25 HR, 110 RBI. He's a solid OF, but not a stud can't bench type of guy. He only has 2 XBH so far in 7 games and only ONE HR in 69 ST AB, so he's just not playing well right now.


Maggs' production makes him a clear #1 OF in standard 12 team mixed leagues. At worst I can see someone ranking him as a top 2nd OF, but anything less I don't see. Granted it will be nearly impossible for him to reach last year's numbers, but even a significant regression isn't going to change his value that much. Show me where you think he is ranked in terms of OFers this year.
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Re: When's it time to ride the pine?

Postby cwrtlm » Wed Apr 09, 2008 6:17 pm

I am considering benching Dunn for Hart and playing Thome in my U. Dunn has just been horrible and doesn't get alot of pitches to hit. I need him in a league where Walks were like 5 points each, he would rule there!
C- Hundley, Iannetta
1b- Wallace
2b- Barney/Barmes
3b- J. Lopez
CO- G. Sanchez
SS- Tulo
MI- Castro
OF- Bay, Hart, Pagan, Smith, Francisco, Ankiel
U- C. Ross(DL), Cantu
P- Carpent, Billings, Volquez, Marcum, Norris, J. Vazquez, Westbrook, Wolf, E Rogers
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Re: When's it time to ride the pine?

Postby woodson_28 » Wed Apr 09, 2008 6:28 pm

Right now I have both J. Reyes AND Crawford riding my bench. I didn't draft them to ride pine, but until they show me why I made them my #1 and #2 picks, They wont see the light of day. I have Tejada and Dye both starting over them, which both players are having great starts.

Dye: 3/9, 2R, RBI - compared to Crawford: 1/9
Tejada: 4/11, 2HR, 5RBI, 3R - compared to Reyes: 1/9

Other players that may see bench: A.Ram in favor of M. Reynolds.

my team:

c: Suzuki
1b: D. Lee (Delgado)
2b: Kendrick
3b: A.Ramirez (M. Reynolds)
ss: J. Reyes (Tejada)
Of: Crawford, C. Lee, Hamilton (J. Dye)
Util: J. Thome

SP: Zambrano, M. Cain, Dice-K, Halladay, Pedro, Hudson, Cueto
RP: Broxton, Sherrill
DL: Kazmir
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Re: When's it time to ride the pine?

Postby The Jury » Wed Apr 09, 2008 6:38 pm

cwrtlm wrote:I am considering benching Dunn for Hart and playing Thome in my U. Dunn has just been horrible and doesn't get alot of pitches to hit. I need him in a league where Walks were like 5 points each, he would rule there!


So basically benching Dunn for Thome? But Thome hasn't exactly been swinging the mighty lumber either...
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Re: When's it time to ride the pine?

Postby deutschland » Wed Apr 09, 2008 6:49 pm

woodson_28 wrote:Right now I have both J. Reyes AND Crawford riding my bench. I didn't draft them to ride pine, but until they show me why I made them my #1 and #2 picks, They wont see the light of day. I have Tejada and Dye both starting over them, which both players are having great starts.

Dye: 3/9, 2R, RBI - compared to Crawford: 1/9
Tejada: 4/11, 2HR, 5RBI, 3R - compared to Reyes: 1/9

Other players that may see bench: A.Ram in favor of M. Reynolds.

my team:

c: Suzuki
1b: D. Lee (Delgado)
2b: Kendrick
3b: A.Ramirez (M. Reynolds)
ss: J. Reyes (Tejada)
Of: Crawford, C. Lee, Hamilton (J. Dye)
Util: J. Thome

SP: Zambrano, M. Cain, Dice-K, Halladay, Pedro, Hudson, Cueto
RP: Broxton, Sherrill
DL: Kazmir



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Re: When's it time to ride the pine?

Postby BALCO All-Stars » Wed Apr 09, 2008 7:23 pm

deutschland wrote:Maggs' production makes him a clear #1 OF in standard 12 team mixed leagues. At worst I can see someone ranking him as a top 2nd OF, but anything less I don't see. Granted it will be nearly impossible for him to reach last year's numbers, but even a significant regression isn't going to change his value that much. Show me where you think he is ranked in terms of OFers this year.


I agree that Maggs is a low end #1 OF or a top end #2. I never said that Maggs wasn't a good OF, I've said he's a very solid OF. I just don't think he's a player that is a "must start" regardless of how poorly he's hitting.

And after all of this discussion...I ended up benching Victorino instead of Maggs...although Vic is my only SB threat (took over the last place team in a 5 keeper league (Chipper/Maggs/Manny/Big Z/Oswalt), Vic has been brutal as well, so to the bench he went.
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Re: When's it time to ride the pine?

Postby bigh0rt » Wed Apr 09, 2008 9:16 pm

This needs to be re-titled the absurd generalizations thread. My God, you'd think that this hadnt been debated 1,000 times peviously, and that there was a clear cut answer, when, if there was, it wouldn't have been debated 1,000 times previously... people need to take a chill pill and get off their high horses.

FWIW, I generally don't even carry more than 1, maybe 2, bench bats, and they're players like Reynolds behind Chipper, who I anticipate going down at some point -- until he does, Reynolds will sit my bench, and fill in on Util. off-days, except in GP limit leagues, where he won't play unless Chipper sits a day and I have a game to make up. I certainly wouldn't name call to anyone who envokes a contrary strategy, though.
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Re: When's it time to ride the pine?

Postby fezzik » Wed Apr 09, 2008 9:42 pm

bigh0rt wrote:This needs to be re-titled the absurd generalizations thread. My God, you'd think that this hadnt been debated 1,000 times peviously, and that there was a clear cut answer, when, if there was, it wouldn't have been debated 1,000 times previously... people need to take a chill pill and get off their high horses.

FWIW, I generally don't even carry more than 1, maybe 2, bench bats, and they're players like Reynolds behind Chipper, who I anticipate going down at some point -- until he does, Reynolds will sit my bench, and fill in on Util. off-days, except in GP limit leagues, where he won't play unless Chipper sits a day and I have a game to make up. I certainly wouldn't name call to anyone who envokes a contrary strategy, though.


What a horrible strategy...n00b! ;-)

I employ the same one actually. :-D

I'm in a relatively deep league (additional MI, CI, Util spots) and sometimes it gets tricky for that last Util spot...at the beginning of the year it was N. Johnson or M. Reynolds...at least Reynolds has demanded that spot recently so I don't need to overthink it. Right now I'm having a difficulty picking two out of these three for 2B and MI (O. Hudson, DeRosa, Y. Escobar)... :-? I've just been looking at the matchups and the venues and making a reasonable choice.

I always play my studs...I really don't believe you can accurately "time" hot/cold streaks...except maybe with Cust...that guy is either on fire or like ice! :-b
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Re: When's it time to ride the pine?

Postby FantasyFreak » Wed Apr 09, 2008 10:34 pm

cwrtlm wrote:I am considering benching Dunn for Hart and playing Thome in my U. Dunn has just been horrible and doesn't get alot of pitches to hit. I need him in a league where Walks were like 5 points each, he would rule there!


I benched Dunn today after his 2/20 start. Obviously he goes 1-2 with 2 runs, HR and a SB. :,-(
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Re: When's it time to ride the pine?

Postby The Jury » Wed Apr 09, 2008 11:01 pm

FantasyFreak wrote:
cwrtlm wrote:I am considering benching Dunn for Hart and playing Thome in my U. Dunn has just been horrible and doesn't get alot of pitches to hit. I need him in a league where Walks were like 5 points each, he would rule there!


I benched Dunn today after his 2/20 start. Obviously he goes 1-2 with 2 runs, HR and a SB. :,-(


Conversely, I've got Swisher filling in at 1B for Ortiz. Swisher went 1 for 3 with a HR today, and Ortiz went 0 for 4. Swisher has been good the past few games, while Ortiz has been horrible.

It really depends who you have to fill in for your slumping stud. As I noted earlier, rotating players who are hitting well will probably yield you as good or better production than simply leaving your stud in there all year. Of course, fantasy baseball always has a luck element.
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