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When's it time to ride the pine?

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Re: When's it time to ride the pine?

Postby BALCO All-Stars » Wed Apr 09, 2008 3:59 pm

Why does everyone have to get so personal? If you don't agree, then just say you don't agree...proclaiming yourself a fantasy expert and calling everyone else casual players...WOW. :-t

I wouldn't bench a Miguel Cabrera or Matt Holliday, i.e. someone of elite status, but someone of Maggs quality I have no problem benching...HE'S ONLY HAD ONE GOOD YEAR IN THE LAST FOUR and Detroit as a team couldn't be any colder. So it's not like I'm benching a perennial .330 40/100/100 guy to ride the hot hand. Missing one good game doesn't make up for the bad week's worth of games while on the bench, so net net you come out ahead, but I'm just a casual player, so you already knew this.
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Re: When's it time to ride the pine?

Postby deutschland » Wed Apr 09, 2008 4:08 pm

BALCO All-Stars wrote:Why does everyone have to get so personal? If you don't agree, then just say you don't agree...proclaiming yourself a fantasy expert and calling everyone else casual players...WOW. :-t

I wouldn't bench a Miguel Cabrera or Matt Holliday, i.e. someone of elite status, but someone of Maggs quality I have no problem benching...HE'S ONLY HAD ONE GOOD YEAR IN THE LAST FOUR and Detroit as a team couldn't be any colder. So it's not like I'm benching a perennial .330 40/100/100 guy to ride the hot hand. Missing one good game doesn't make up for the bad week's worth of games while on the bench, so net net you come out ahead, but I'm just a casual player, so you already knew this.


sorry but I have to agree that mkooljr1 is right on the money and whether he is an expert or not, all experts will 100% agree with his post. you opened yourself to criticism by posting this. i also don't consider his response a personal attack on you. benching your studs when they are slumping is a rookie move and that type of management is not going to win you a fantasy title.
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Re: When's it time to ride the pine?

Postby markj11 » Wed Apr 09, 2008 4:10 pm

mkooljr1 wrote:Man, add another bullet point to the list of what separates fantasy experts from casual players. Benching Miguel Cabrera or Soriano for Griffey or Gordon? Are you kidding me?? Benching Magglio for BILL HALL?! And someone wanted to bench Holliday? Seriously, I just don't have words to describe how idiotic it is to try to perfectly time "hot" and "cold" streaks. You don't even realize a player is on a cold streak until a week into it, and by the time you notice and decide to bench him, he gets hot again and reverts back to his historical performance. Same as a hot streak but reverse.

This isn't much different than the stock market where any smart market analyst worth anything would tell you to never try to time the market, and buy and hold has always proven to be the best strategy.

Are you guys also benching Sabathia, Burnett, Myers, and Oswalt for Bannister, Redding and Livan Hernandez?


There is no need to try to "perfectly time" a hot or cold streak. If I miss 1 3/4 game it doesn't hurt as bad as taking 2/24. As I said, I benched Wright last during April until he started hitting and what do you think I missed out on?
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Re: When's it time to ride the pine?

Postby BALCO All-Stars » Wed Apr 09, 2008 4:20 pm

deutschland wrote:
BALCO All-Stars wrote:Why does everyone have to get so personal? If you don't agree, then just say you don't agree...proclaiming yourself a fantasy expert and calling everyone else casual players...WOW. :-t

I wouldn't bench a Miguel Cabrera or Matt Holliday, i.e. someone of elite status, but someone of Maggs quality I have no problem benching...HE'S ONLY HAD ONE GOOD YEAR IN THE LAST FOUR and Detroit as a team couldn't be any colder. So it's not like I'm benching a perennial .330 40/100/100 guy to ride the hot hand. Missing one good game doesn't make up for the bad week's worth of games while on the bench, so net net you come out ahead, but I'm just a casual player, so you already knew this.


sorry but I have to agree that mkooljr1 is right on the money and whether he is an expert or not, all experts will 100% agree with his post. you opened yourself to criticism by posting this. i also don't consider his response a personal attack on you. benching your studs when they are slumping is a rookie move and that type of management is not going to win you a fantasy title.


Criticism is fine, that's why I joined the cafe...to talk about strategy and to improve my game and if what I say gets criticized, so be it, it's all good. And to each their own, I just don't consider someone who has one good year in the last four a stud and a must start each day. I'd rather ride the hot hand while Maggs and the rest of Detroit getting their offense rolling.

But in any event, it sounds like we will agree to disagree, and let's keep the discussion going. ;-D
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Re: When's it time to ride the pine?

Postby deutschland » Wed Apr 09, 2008 4:27 pm

BALCO All-Stars wrote:
deutschland wrote:
BALCO All-Stars wrote:Why does everyone have to get so personal? If you don't agree, then just say you don't agree...proclaiming yourself a fantasy expert and calling everyone else casual players...WOW. :-t

I wouldn't bench a Miguel Cabrera or Matt Holliday, i.e. someone of elite status, but someone of Maggs quality I have no problem benching...HE'S ONLY HAD ONE GOOD YEAR IN THE LAST FOUR and Detroit as a team couldn't be any colder. So it's not like I'm benching a perennial .330 40/100/100 guy to ride the hot hand. Missing one good game doesn't make up for the bad week's worth of games while on the bench, so net net you come out ahead, but I'm just a casual player, so you already knew this.


sorry but I have to agree that mkooljr1 is right on the money and whether he is an expert or not, all experts will 100% agree with his post. you opened yourself to criticism by posting this. i also don't consider his response a personal attack on you. benching your studs when they are slumping is a rookie move and that type of management is not going to win you a fantasy title.


Criticism is fine, that's why I joined the cafe...to talk about strategy and to improve my game and if what I say gets criticized, so be it, it's all good. And to each their own, I just don't consider someone who has one good year in the last four a stud and a must start each day. I'd rather ride the hot hand while Maggs and the rest of Detroit getting their offense rolling.

But in any event, it sounds like we will agree to disagree, and let's keep the discussion going. ;-D


i don't understand your reasoning on Ordonez having 1 good year in the last 4. he was injured in 04 and 05. He has consistenly proven himself as a top fantasy OF in every full season he has played since 1999.
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Re: When's it time to ride the pine?

Postby The Jury » Wed Apr 09, 2008 4:40 pm

mkooljr1 wrote:Man, add another bullet point to the list of what separates fantasy experts from casual players. Benching Miguel Cabrera or Soriano for Griffey or Gordon? Are you kidding me?? Benching Magglio for BILL HALL?! And someone wanted to bench Holliday? Seriously, I just don't have words to describe how idiotic it is to try to perfectly time "hot" and "cold" streaks. You don't even realize a player is on a cold streak until a week into it, and by the time you notice and decide to bench him, he gets hot again and reverts back to his historical performance. Same as a hot streak but reverse.

This isn't much different than the stock market where any smart market analyst worth anything would tell you to never try to time the market, and buy and hold has always proven to be the best strategy.

Are you guys also benching Sabathia, Burnett, Myers, and Oswalt for Bannister, Redding and Livan Hernandez?


I agree that you can't perfectly time hot and cold streaks, but you can catch onto guys when they're locked in for a while (hot streak) or when they're in a slump. And if it lasts a few weeks then that's plenty good.

The top hitters (such as Holliday, Cabrera, etc.) will put up better numbers 1 for 1 than most other hitters, but if you have, for example, one OF spot, rotating the hottest players every few weeks will probably yield as good or even better numbers from that one OF spot than simply leaving Holliday in there all year would. The trouble with that is transaction limits and keeping track of which guys are locked in, whereas being able to stick a stud there is an easier "set it and forget it" approach.
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Re: When's it time to ride the pine?

Postby The Jury » Wed Apr 09, 2008 4:41 pm

To add, I don't know about you but I've found that's it's not always the best team in 2008 that wins in fantasy - often it's the team with the hottest players at certain times during the season.
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Re: When's it time to ride the pine?

Postby BALCO All-Stars » Wed Apr 09, 2008 4:45 pm

deutschland wrote:i don't understand your reasoning on Ordonez having 1 good year in the last 4. he was injured in 04 and 05. He has consistenly proven himself as a top fantasy OF in every full season he has played since 1999.


I agree with you that he's a solid OF, but not a can't bench type of guy:

2007: 157 games .363, 117 R, 28 HR, 139 RBI STUD, but can't keep that .363 average this year, which in turn should decrease his R and RBI
2006: 155 games .298, 82 R, 24 HR, 104 RBI = solid, but nothing special. 26th best OF in 5x5 yahoo rankings.
2005: 82 games .302, 38 R, 8 HR, 46 RBI = hurt, but numbers were not good while playing, extrapolate for full season = 76 R, 16 HR, 92 RBI = blah
2004: 52 games .292, 32 R, 9 HR, 37 RBI = hurt, extrapolate for full season = 96 R, 27 HR, 111 RBI - solid, but again, nothing uber-special
2003: 160 games .317, 95 R, 29 HR, 99 RBI, 9 SB = solid, but again, nothing special
1999-2002: STUD, 5 tool guy, but he was in his late 20's back then and does not steal anymore.

He's older (turned 34 in January), and IMO, his ceiling is .300 100 R, 25 HR, 110 RBI. He's a solid OF, but not a stud can't bench type of guy. He only has 2 XBH so far in 7 games and only ONE HR in 69 ST AB, so he's just not playing well right now.
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Re: When's it time to ride the pine?

Postby acsguitar » Wed Apr 09, 2008 5:19 pm

J35J wrote:I had a buddy that was wanting to bench Holliday a day or two before he has started hitting.....I'll tell you like I told him.....don't do it. :-)


He didn't hit for 3 games!?!?!? Thats called normal baseball
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Re: When's it time to ride the pine?

Postby The Jury » Wed Apr 09, 2008 5:34 pm

BALCO All-Stars wrote:
deutschland wrote:i don't understand your reasoning on Ordonez having 1 good year in the last 4. he was injured in 04 and 05. He has consistenly proven himself as a top fantasy OF in every full season he has played since 1999.


I agree with you that he's a solid OF, but not a can't bench type of guy:

2007: 157 games .363, 117 R, 28 HR, 139 RBI STUD, but can't keep that .363 average this year, which in turn should decrease his R and RBI
2006: 155 games .298, 82 R, 24 HR, 104 RBI = solid, but nothing special. 26th best OF in 5x5 yahoo rankings.
2005: 82 games .302, 38 R, 8 HR, 46 RBI = hurt, but numbers were not good while playing, extrapolate for full season = 76 R, 16 HR, 92 RBI = blah
2004: 52 games .292, 32 R, 9 HR, 37 RBI = hurt, extrapolate for full season = 96 R, 27 HR, 111 RBI - solid, but again, nothing uber-special
2003: 160 games .317, 95 R, 29 HR, 99 RBI, 9 SB = solid, but again, nothing special
1999-2002: STUD, 5 tool guy, but he was in his late 20's back then and does not steal anymore.

He's older (turned 34 in January), and IMO, his ceiling is .300 100 R, 25 HR, 110 RBI. He's a solid OF, but not a stud can't bench type of guy. He only has 2 XBH so far in 7 games and only ONE HR in 69 ST AB, so he's just not playing well right now.


I agree that's not the 35-40 HR threat that he was with the White Sox, but I have to think his ceiling is better than .300-100-25-110. He's always been a solid contact hitter - I'd give him .310 at least for BA. I also think he can score around 105-110 and knock in 115. He still hits the ball hard, and while he only put up 28 HR last year, he added 54 doubles - age and Comerica Park are probably contributing factors.

As for his injury riddled season, I don't see much value in extrapolating on those numbers. With and off injuries, or playing through them, most players don't play to their full potential. I do agree that he's a past his White Sox offensive days though.
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