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Hoffman blows yet another game..How much longer?

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Re: Hoffman blows yet another game..How much longer?

Postby BronXBombers51 » Mon Apr 07, 2008 2:32 pm

baseballspliffs wrote:Last season, Mariano had a 10+ ERA in April, Hoffman's ERA was 6.23 in April.

Barring injuries/one of his arm falling off, I think its Hoffman's job.

It's only April


Yeah but Rivera was coming off of one of the best seasons of his career in 2006. Hoffman has been declining for quite a few years. Plus he's older than Rivera. I think it's much more likely that Hoffman continues to decline and has a poor season than him rebounding into a top closer.

That said, his job probably is safe unless he really falls off the table and/or gets hurt.
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Re: Hoffman blows yet another game..How much longer?

Postby Russell James » Mon Apr 07, 2008 2:48 pm

BronXBombers51 wrote:
baseballspliffs wrote:Last season, Mariano had a 10+ ERA in April, Hoffman's ERA was 6.23 in April.

Barring injuries/one of his arm falling off, I think its Hoffman's job.

It's only April


Yeah but Rivera was coming off of one of the best seasons of his career in 2006. Hoffman has been declining for quite a few years. Plus he's older than Rivera. I think it's much more likely that Hoffman continues to decline and has a poor season than him rebounding into a top closer.

That said, his job probably is safe unless he really falls off the table and/or gets hurt.


Rivera has had a bad habit of starting off slow the past few seasons, even in 2006 he blew some early saves in April. I think his stuff is better then Hoffman, but he has been regressing the past few years. The big difference is that Rivera used to be untouchable and now it is not uncommon for guys to get on base with him on the mound.

these older closers just need a few weeks to get the kinks out. Although Rivera has looked good this year. He may end up with 45 saves.
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Re: Hoffman blows yet another game..How much longer?

Postby freeling_prideful » Mon Apr 07, 2008 3:29 pm

Mariano's stuff is still objectively GOOD though. His cut fastball, while no longer regularly upper 90's, is 92-94 and still has some of the sickest late movement of anyone in the majors.

Hoffman's fastball has declined to 85-86 and his changeup isn't much slower. Hoffman's whole strength used to be that he could fool hitters no the 8-9 mph difference b/w his change and fastball b/c they look exactly the same...now, however, they are much closer and hitters have an easier time batting him around. His weak stuff makes him particularly vulnerable to homers now.
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Re: Hoffman blows yet another game..How much longer?

Postby Syfo-Dyas » Mon Apr 07, 2008 3:41 pm

OneLoveBoomer wrote:I dunno...I stayed away from in all drafts expecting pretty much what's happening...

same here.
but i think he will stay the closer all season, unless injured. theres no way he blows like 4 in a row.
and even if so, he might sit out one or two chances saying his got some kinda "injury" than he'll go back and gets some more saves.
he is unmoveable just as rivera. living legends dont get kicked out.
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Re: Hoffman blows yet another game..How much longer?

Postby BitterDodgerFan » Mon Apr 07, 2008 3:44 pm

why doesn't he slow down his change up by a lot then?
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Re: Hoffman blows yet another game..How much longer?

Postby BronXBombers51 » Mon Apr 07, 2008 3:50 pm

BitterDodgerFan wrote:why doesn't he slow down his change up by a lot then?


That's probably a lot easier said than done.

Changeups are effective when the hitter doesn't know their coming. The best pitchers can make their fastball deliveries and their changeup deliveries look identical. By altering his changeup, there's probably a good chance that he'd lose this, and hitters would then know for certain when the changeup is coming.

He's just getting old.
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Re: Hoffman blows yet another game..How much longer?

Postby davidmarver » Mon Apr 07, 2008 6:58 pm

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Seemingly every year.

See you 40 saves from now around a 3 ERA.
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Re: Hoffman blows yet another game..How much longer?

Postby The Jury » Mon Apr 07, 2008 8:59 pm

freeling_prideful wrote:Mariano's stuff is still objectively GOOD though. His cut fastball, while no longer regularly upper 90's, is 92-94 and still has some of the sickest late movement of anyone in the majors.

Hoffman's fastball has declined to 85-86 and his changeup isn't much slower. Hoffman's whole strength used to be that he could fool hitters no the 8-9 mph difference b/w his change and fastball b/c they look exactly the same...now, however, they are much closer and hitters have an easier time batting him around. His weak stuff makes him particularly vulnerable to homers now.


As he loses velocity on his fastball, why doesn't he lose the same miles on his changeup?
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Re: Hoffman blows yet another game..How much longer?

Postby Padsin05 » Tue Apr 08, 2008 4:24 am

hes not loosing velocity on his fastball hes touched 92 already this year, and is regularly around 88

last season he topped out at 88 and was regularly at 85

his problem to me is that with his added velocity he is trying to rely on the fastball more this year, once he figures out again thats not his bread and butter he will go back to the change.

also notice he seems to be going thru a mid-life crisis, growing his hair long, and trying to muscle it by people. once he is over that phase he will be fine
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Re: Hoffman blows yet another game..How much longer?

Postby russellcv » Tue Apr 08, 2008 4:49 am

this is so tired, though i like the mid life crisis analysis.

the sky is falling and trevor hoffman is no longer an elite closer!!!

the man is old, but even last year he was fantastic. he has been pitchin for years without a fastball. nothin new here. he will run into a few rough patches a few times a year, and those are becoming a little more frequent, so he is no longer the #1 closer in baseball like he was for a decade (all respect to mariano). if you have him on your team and rely on him for saves you NEED to add heathbell of course. youd be stupid not to, but as of now expect hoffman to bounce back from his early season troubles, post great numbers for the first half and run into trouble again sometime around the allstar break.
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