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Oil Supply Up? Demand Down?? Prices Up???

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Re: Oil Supply Up? Demand Down?? Prices Up???

Postby mbuser » Fri Apr 04, 2008 1:47 pm

StlSluggers wrote:
mbuser wrote:interesting blurb about ethanol in there too -- once again, the right people stand to gain from the idea that ethanol can be viable on a large scale, so we'll throw billions at it. from a net energy and land-use standpoint, isn't it a terrible idea?

I don't like ethanol for one reason and one reason only: nature.

Weather-impacted energy sources are a terrible idea. Period.

a valid point, but it's safe to assume that whichever multinational petrol company had the huuuuuuge tracts of land for growing the corn would never have to fear for having irrigation. we'd pay for a way to get water to them if they were in death valley
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Re: Oil Supply Up? Demand Down?? Prices Up???

Postby StlSluggers » Fri Apr 04, 2008 1:57 pm

mbuser wrote:
StlSluggers wrote:
mbuser wrote:interesting blurb about ethanol in there too -- once again, the right people stand to gain from the idea that ethanol can be viable on a large scale, so we'll throw billions at it. from a net energy and land-use standpoint, isn't it a terrible idea?

I don't like ethanol for one reason and one reason only: nature.

Weather-impacted energy sources are a terrible idea. Period.

a valid point, but it's safe to assume that whichever multinational petrol company had the huuuuuuge tracts of land for growing the corn would never have to fear for having irrigation. we'd pay for a way to get water to them if they were in death valley

There are more than just droughts.

Floods... Hurricanes... Earthquakes... Disease...
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Re: Oil Supply Up? Demand Down?? Prices Up???

Postby Pogotheostrich » Fri Apr 04, 2008 2:02 pm

StlSluggers wrote:Floods... Hurricanes... Earthquakes... Disease...

Still all those things have effected refineries. Plus if a refinery is destroyed it doesn't grow back a year later.
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Re: Oil Supply Up? Demand Down?? Prices Up???

Postby knapplc » Fri Apr 04, 2008 2:45 pm

Ethanol isn't the disaster it has been made out to be by some, but then again it's not the salvation of our energy crisis either like some would have us believe.

One of the side problems that ethanol produces that people don't usually talk about is raising our food prices. The more cropland that goes to produce ethanol corn instead of foodstuffs or seed corn, the more we're going to pay at the market for bread, dairy and meat.

Personally, I think developing electricity as an auto power source makes the most sense. It's cheap, clean, renewable (as long as the wind still blows, that is) and it doesn't detract from other necessary areas.
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Re: Oil Supply Up? Demand Down?? Prices Up???

Postby Madison » Fri Apr 04, 2008 3:28 pm

Wait, you mean we're overpaying for gas? 8-o That it should be much cheaper? 8-o That they've been lying and overblowing everything all this time? 8-o

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Re: Oil Supply Up? Demand Down?? Prices Up???

Postby AcidRock23 » Fri Apr 04, 2008 9:41 pm

Peak Oil?

It seems a bit apocalyptic but it also seems to make sense...oil production is near it's expected peak is used for fuel as well as for plastics and is a commodity the value of which, like other speculatively priced commodities, seems to be a bit inflated now and seems likely to be even more inflated as it becomes scarcer. Debates like the ANWR could be informed with this, looking at the oil in the ground in a third way, rather than drill now (conservative perspective) or don't drill (tree hugger perspective) say drill later when the price of oil will be higher and the finite amount of oil can be converted into more capital. Of course, if it gets to be worth more, it might interest say China or some other sinister power in some kind of Tom Clancy-esque scenario.... 8-o
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Re: Oil Supply Up? Demand Down?? Prices Up???

Postby JTWood » Fri Apr 04, 2008 10:39 pm

By 2010, predicts Leggett, democracy will be on the run . . . economic hardship will bring out the worst in people.

:-?
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Re: Oil Supply Up? Demand Down?? Prices Up???

Postby JTWood » Sat Apr 05, 2008 9:45 am

AcidRock23 wrote:Peak Oil?

Anyone else read this? It came off as frighteningly lucid to me. :-o
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Re: Oil Supply Up? Demand Down?? Prices Up???

Postby Madison » Sun Apr 06, 2008 3:00 am

JTWood wrote:
AcidRock23 wrote:Peak Oil?

Anyone else read this? It came off as frighteningly lucid to me. :-o


I read it and didn't blink an eye. But I'm definitely no expert on the topic.
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Re: Oil Supply Up? Demand Down?? Prices Up???

Postby JTWood » Sun Apr 06, 2008 9:58 am

Madison wrote:
JTWood wrote:
AcidRock23 wrote:Peak Oil?

Anyone else read this? It came off as frighteningly lucid to me. :-o


I read it and didn't blink an eye. But I'm definitely no expert on the topic.

I have been able to determine that his population growth estimations pointed out in the first paragraph are way wrong. Our global population will be about 20%-30% larger than it is right now by 2030 - not double. What freaks me out is the number of those people that will be in undeveloped/"third world" nations...

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Anyway, if population isn't as large as he says, then he's overestimating demand. I still think he has a point when he says that demand outpacing supply is a bigger issue than simply running out of oil. However, he seems to be a little ahead of himself with some of it.
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