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Who is the '08 Ryan Braun?

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Re: Who is the '08 Ryan Braun?

Postby Yoda » Thu Apr 03, 2008 12:37 pm

great gretzky wrote:
Yoda wrote:To be fair, for fantasy purposes Braun was probably bigger than Pujols or any other rookie that I can think of.

That being said, Tulo wasn't so bad himself last year and neither was Hanley in 06. There is almost always someone that far exceeds expectations.


Still, I'm not sure I totally agree with that to be honest, didn't pujols also have third base eligibility? and we didn't even talk pitchers. Ultimate point is that braun was a monster, guys like that don't happen every year, but its not unheard of either.


I'm willing to bet that Braun's rookie year is unmatched. I think Pujols and others have been close in production but in terms of fantasy, Braun had just about the most perfect season you can expect from a rookie in overall production.

Pitching is different. Lots of even mediocre pitchers have had immense success in their rookie season. I think the OP is asking about hitters.
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Re: Who is the '08 Ryan Braun?

Postby great gretzky » Thu Apr 03, 2008 1:01 pm

maybe I am missing something (and probably am, as I am just kind of going off the top of my head). But how is Braun "unmatched" when others have exceed him? Yea, "overall" he is damn good. But ...

91 34 97 15 .324 -- braun

112 37 130 1 .329 -- pujols

122 30 98 22 .306 -- nomar

the 14 extra stolen bases are pretty darn helpful. And I'm not sure on where I stand on it, but do 33 RBI, 3 HR, 21 more runs make up for it? I'm probably inclined to say that it at least equals it. I'm also partial to nomar being in the discussion, although Braun's average is pretty commanding, but on the other hand, 31 more runs, seven more sbs is pretty darn helpful too. And he played a thin, thing position. (although, I'm not sure that should factor in.)

and then you have guys who are a shade under Braun, but I think close enough to make a case that they are in the same discussion, or if not, close enough to point out that approaching that kind of production isn't that crazy.

112 22 27 108 .293 -- beltran

119 17 59 51 .292 -- Hanley



Braun had an awesome campaign, but these are all awesome too. I realize beltran and hanley aren't as good but like I said, I'm not sold Pujols wasn't as good or better than braun, and breakout rookie years like this happen more frequently than every 40 and heck even 20 years. Seems like they come more frequently than that.
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Re: Who is the '08 Ryan Braun?

Postby Yoda » Thu Apr 03, 2008 1:07 pm

great gretzky wrote:maybe I am missing something (and probably am, as I am just kind of going off the top of my head). But how is Braun "unmatched" when others have exceed him? Yea, "overall" he is damn good. But ...

91 34 97 15 .324 -- braun

112 37 130 1 .329 -- pujols

122 30 98 22 .306 -- nomar

the 14 extra stolen bases are pretty darn helpful. And I'm not sure on where I stand on it, but do 33 RBI, 3 HR, 21 more runs make up for it? I'm probably inclined to say that it at least equals it. I'm also partial to nomar being in the discussion, although Braun's average is pretty commanding, but on the other hand, 31 more runs, seven more sbs is pretty darn helpful too. And he played a thin, thing position. (although, I'm not sure that should factor in.)

and then you have guys who are a shade under Braun, but I think close enough to make a case that they are in the same discussion, or if not, close enough to point out that approaching that kind of production isn't that crazy.

112 22 27 108 .293 -- beltran

119 17 59 51 .292 -- Hanley



Braun had an awesome campaign, but these are all awesome too. I realize beltran and hanley aren't as good but like I said, I'm not sold Pujols wasn't as good or better than braun, and breakout rookie years like this happen more frequently than every 40 and heck even 20 years. Seems like they come more frequently than that.


Well, I'm not arguing that it happens every 40 years. It's rare but it does happen from time to time.

You do realize that Braun put up those numbers despite starting to play on May 25? He put up that line in 2/3 of a season. I'd argue that he probably put up the best rookie season in the last 20 years.
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Re: Who is the '08 Ryan Braun?

Postby great gretzky » Thu Apr 03, 2008 1:28 pm

I realize that. But in terms of fantasy, I have two thoughts (while really trying to avoid denigrating him):

first, great, he did it in two - thirds of a season. Well, he didn't do what he didn't do. I think there is obviously a trend in these discussions to extrapolate, and fair enough. But how do we know if he would have gotten tired or slumped, gotten figured out or whatever? I don't think that is the case, but i am loathe to give someone credit (or make assumptions) on things that are conjecture. He likely would have had better numbers, but he didn't. And if we are comparing rookie campaigns I am comparing rookie campaigns. And in absolute sense, it wasn't unprecedented, in that he didn't do more, his numbers are his numbers, and he did what he did.

Second, since it took him time to come up, and then time after that to get noticed like this, how many owners "missed stats"? I realize that is exactly what I complain about in reverse, but I do it for a reason. There are other rookies who in a relative and absoloute sense, approached, matched, and possibly exceeded (it is genuinely hard to tell with roto in my opinion what you would prefer, RBI or stolen bases) Braun.

And I mean for all intents and purposes, we can play the "what if" game all over (and we are when arguing 2/3 of a season). what if Arod got called up sooner? I know this is hypothetical, and not trying to start a fight. Yes, braun was awesome, but it could be argued that just the previous year, a guy with stats pretty comparable depending on outlook happened just the year before. I mean a 17 hr, 50 steal guy ain't all that common. Anyway, some of this comes down to personal preference, extrapolation, and how it specifically affected you. How was your team constructed, how long did it take you to buy it, and thus play him, etc. I just don't buy that it is some watershed thing that is to be worshiped either, because there have been guys in the past 10, 15 years who have had rookie campaigns on par at least.
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Re: Who is the '08 Ryan Braun?

Postby Yoda » Thu Apr 03, 2008 1:36 pm

great gretzky wrote:I realize that. But in terms of fantasy, I have two thoughts (while really trying to avoid denigrating him):

first, great, he did it in two - thirds of a season. Well, he didn't do what he didn't do. I think there is obviously a trend in these discussions to extrapolate, and fair enough. But how do we know if he would have gotten tired or slumped, gotten figured out or whatever? I don't think that is the case, but i am loathe to give someone credit (or make assumptions) on things that are conjecture. He likely would have had better numbers, but he didn't. And if we are comparing rookie campaigns I am comparing rookie campaigns. And in absolute sense, it wasn't unprecedented, in that he didn't do more, his numbers are his numbers, and he did what he did.

Second, since it took him time to come up, and then time after that to get noticed like this, how many owners "missed stats"? I realize that is exactly what I complain about in reverse, but I do it for a reason. There are other rookies who in a relative and absoloute sense, approached, matched, and possibly exceeded (it is genuinely hard to tell with roto in my opinion what you would prefer, RBI or stolen bases) Braun.

And I mean for all intents and purposes, we can play the "what if" game all over (and we are when arguing 2/3 of a season). what if Arod got called up sooner? I know this is hypothetical, and not trying to start a fight. Yes, braun was awesome, but it could be argued that just the previous year, a guy with stats pretty comparable depending on outlook happened just the year before. I mean a 17 hr, 50 steal guy ain't all that common. Anyway, some of this comes down to personal preference, extrapolation, and how it specifically affected you. How was your team constructed, how long did it take you to buy it, and thus play him, etc. I just don't buy that it is some watershed thing that is to be worshiped either, because there have been guys in the past 10, 15 years who have had rookie campaigns on par at least.


I'm not talking about 'what if Braun played a full season' here. Chances are you replaced him with one of your starters when he was called up May 25. So for the first two months you were getting at least average production from someone that Braun replaced. Combine their production and that is what you got for the entire season. Looking at it this way, yes, I believe Braun's rookie season had far more impact than anyone else's except for maybe Pujols.
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Re: Who is the '08 Ryan Braun?

Postby kidnemisis » Thu Apr 03, 2008 1:40 pm

I heard rumblings that Carlos Gonzalez from the A's is a dark horse rookie of the year type. Any thoughts on him? Anybody have knowledge on the A's plans for him?
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Re: Who is the '08 Ryan Braun?

Postby great gretzky » Thu Apr 03, 2008 1:42 pm

Yoda wrote:
great gretzky wrote:I realize that. But in terms of fantasy, I have two thoughts (while really trying to avoid denigrating him):

first, great, he did it in two - thirds of a season. Well, he didn't do what he didn't do. I think there is obviously a trend in these discussions to extrapolate, and fair enough. But how do we know if he would have gotten tired or slumped, gotten figured out or whatever? I don't think that is the case, but i am loathe to give someone credit (or make assumptions) on things that are conjecture. He likely would have had better numbers, but he didn't. And if we are comparing rookie campaigns I am comparing rookie campaigns. And in absolute sense, it wasn't unprecedented, in that he didn't do more, his numbers are his numbers, and he did what he did.

Second, since it took him time to come up, and then time after that to get noticed like this, how many owners "missed stats"? I realize that is exactly what I complain about in reverse, but I do it for a reason. There are other rookies who in a relative and absoloute sense, approached, matched, and possibly exceeded (it is genuinely hard to tell with roto in my opinion what you would prefer, RBI or stolen bases) Braun.

And I mean for all intents and purposes, we can play the "what if" game all over (and we are when arguing 2/3 of a season). what if Arod got called up sooner? I know this is hypothetical, and not trying to start a fight. Yes, braun was awesome, but it could be argued that just the previous year, a guy with stats pretty comparable depending on outlook happened just the year before. I mean a 17 hr, 50 steal guy ain't all that common. Anyway, some of this comes down to personal preference, extrapolation, and how it specifically affected you. How was your team constructed, how long did it take you to buy it, and thus play him, etc. I just don't buy that it is some watershed thing that is to be worshiped either, because there have been guys in the past 10, 15 years who have had rookie campaigns on par at least.


I'm not talking about 'what if Braun played a full season' here. Chances are you replaced him with one of your starters when he was called up May 25. So for the first two months you were getting at least average production from someone that Braun replaced. Combine their production and that is what you got for the entire season. Looking at it this way, yes, I believe Braun's rookie season had far more impact than anyone else's except for maybe Pujols.


Pooint taken. But how could you say that for him and not nomar? You definitely got a major advantage there.
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Re: Who is the '08 Ryan Braun?

Postby great gretzky » Thu Apr 03, 2008 1:45 pm

Yoda wrote:
great gretzky wrote:I realize that. But in terms of fantasy, I have two thoughts (while really trying to avoid denigrating him):

first, great, he did it in two - thirds of a season. Well, he didn't do what he didn't do. I think there is obviously a trend in these discussions to extrapolate, and fair enough. But how do we know if he would have gotten tired or slumped, gotten figured out or whatever? I don't think that is the case, but i am loathe to give someone credit (or make assumptions) on things that are conjecture. He likely would have had better numbers, but he didn't. And if we are comparing rookie campaigns I am comparing rookie campaigns. And in absolute sense, it wasn't unprecedented, in that he didn't do more, his numbers are his numbers, and he did what he did.

Second, since it took him time to come up, and then time after that to get noticed like this, how many owners "missed stats"? I realize that is exactly what I complain about in reverse, but I do it for a reason. There are other rookies who in a relative and absoloute sense, approached, matched, and possibly exceeded (it is genuinely hard to tell with roto in my opinion what you would prefer, RBI or stolen bases) Braun.

And I mean for all intents and purposes, we can play the "what if" game all over (and we are when arguing 2/3 of a season). what if Arod got called up sooner? I know this is hypothetical, and not trying to start a fight. Yes, braun was awesome, but it could be argued that just the previous year, a guy with stats pretty comparable depending on outlook happened just the year before. I mean a 17 hr, 50 steal guy ain't all that common. Anyway, some of this comes down to personal preference, extrapolation, and how it specifically affected you. How was your team constructed, how long did it take you to buy it, and thus play him, etc. I just don't buy that it is some watershed thing that is to be worshiped either, because there have been guys in the past 10, 15 years who have had rookie campaigns on par at least.


I'm not talking about 'what if Braun played a full season' here. Chances are you replaced him with one of your starters when he was called up May 25. So for the first two months you were getting at least average production from someone that Braun replaced. Combine their production and that is what you got for the entire season. Looking at it this way, yes, I believe Braun's rookie season had far more impact than anyone else's except for maybe Pujols.


Pooint taken. But how could you say that for him and not nomar? You definitely got a major advantage there.

An you brought up the point "he only played 2/3" of a season, which ultimately is irrelevant because he didn't play the full season, and he could have easily faded too. Im sure people didn't have a blank at their other positions when the other monster rookie years came up too. Ultimately, it is what it is, and he is one of the most profound rookie seasons, I just think its all a bit ridiculous though, as memories seem short.
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Re: Who is the '08 Ryan Braun?

Postby Yoda » Thu Apr 03, 2008 1:48 pm

great gretzky wrote:
Yoda wrote:
great gretzky wrote:I realize that. But in terms of fantasy, I have two thoughts (while really trying to avoid denigrating him):

first, great, he did it in two - thirds of a season. Well, he didn't do what he didn't do. I think there is obviously a trend in these discussions to extrapolate, and fair enough. But how do we know if he would have gotten tired or slumped, gotten figured out or whatever? I don't think that is the case, but i am loathe to give someone credit (or make assumptions) on things that are conjecture. He likely would have had better numbers, but he didn't. And if we are comparing rookie campaigns I am comparing rookie campaigns. And in absolute sense, it wasn't unprecedented, in that he didn't do more, his numbers are his numbers, and he did what he did.

Second, since it took him time to come up, and then time after that to get noticed like this, how many owners "missed stats"? I realize that is exactly what I complain about in reverse, but I do it for a reason. There are other rookies who in a relative and absoloute sense, approached, matched, and possibly exceeded (it is genuinely hard to tell with roto in my opinion what you would prefer, RBI or stolen bases) Braun.

And I mean for all intents and purposes, we can play the "what if" game all over (and we are when arguing 2/3 of a season). what if Arod got called up sooner? I know this is hypothetical, and not trying to start a fight. Yes, braun was awesome, but it could be argued that just the previous year, a guy with stats pretty comparable depending on outlook happened just the year before. I mean a 17 hr, 50 steal guy ain't all that common. Anyway, some of this comes down to personal preference, extrapolation, and how it specifically affected you. How was your team constructed, how long did it take you to buy it, and thus play him, etc. I just don't buy that it is some watershed thing that is to be worshiped either, because there have been guys in the past 10, 15 years who have had rookie campaigns on par at least.


I'm not talking about 'what if Braun played a full season' here. Chances are you replaced him with one of your starters when he was called up May 25. So for the first two months you were getting at least average production from someone that Braun replaced. Combine their production and that is what you got for the entire season. Looking at it this way, yes, I believe Braun's rookie season had far more impact than anyone else's except for maybe Pujols.


Pooint taken. But how could you say that for him and not nomar? You definitely got a major advantage there.

An you brought up the point "he only played 2/3" of a season, which ultimately is irrelevant because he didn't play the full season, and he could have easily faded too. Im sure people didn't have a blank at their other positions when the other monster rookie years came up too. Ultimately, it is what it is, and he is one of the most profound rookie seasons, I just think its all a bit ridiculous though, as memories seem short.


I said he probably had the greatest rookie season for a position player for fantasy purposes in the last 20 years. There have been many great ones in the past including Hanley, Pujols, etc.
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Re: Who is the '08 Ryan Braun?

Postby jdsun1 » Thu Apr 03, 2008 8:55 pm

Chase Headley is the 08 Ryan Braun.
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