I have been combing over stats and wondered who the candidates are this year to have a year similar to Ryan Braun ca. 2007
In 4 1/2 years from the U, to RK ball all the way to AAA in 07, Braun averaged a HR every 15.9 AB's, while batting with a very high avgerage, with exceptions of a 273 hiccup in A+ ball.
I firmly feel that all the big names(Longoria on down the line, with the exception of Pearce & Bruce, have no shot at coming onto the seen soon and having much more than $15 value in ROTO league.
What do you guys think. Got any names that stand out?
So I guess what I am saying is that Bruce and Pearce are the only ones with the set skills do come out swinging once called up. Pearce has the skills but in '07 with PIT, he had 64 AB's with 0 HR's. Pearce avg. a HR about every 18.5 AB's in the minors.
"I can't wait to put the uniform on each day" ~ Bobby Cox
Not a rook, but I'd say a guy who did it a bit last year: Josh Fields. Won't be down in AAA long either due to a Crede injury, trade or release ('cause, man, Crede sucks). And Fields has got legit 30 HR pop, albeit not a great avg. AND, he qualifies in OF and 3B, at least in Yahoo.
Albert Pujols is the last hitter I can think of that just came out gold and never slowed down, like Braun did last year. Before that probably Helton in '97. It's very rare because when a rookie that does have the ability and get the playing time opportunity rakes out of the gate, pitchers adjust and it takes a little bit for the rookies to adjust to that.
There's a lot of great prospects that have potential to help your team if/when they get the call, but there's absolutely no way anyone can say they know player X will be "the one". Otherwise scouts (who get paid to try to do that and get every bit of information as well as up-close personal study on these guys) wouldn't be wrong a majority of the time. All you can do is group the guys with potential to succeed and then track them to look for signs and/or opportunity.
stepsinsc wrote:No one. Braun in 07 was a once-every-40-year occurrence.
Outside of that, you mentioned the big name rooks that will contribute.
Except for Albert Pujols seven years ago? I guess Braun's 15 sb make him better, but Pujols was better in every cat than bruan (save stolen bases). Point taken (and not trying to be a jerk, more of animated discussion effect here), but its not really every 40 years. It's not common, but its not ridiculously rare either.
stepsinsc wrote:No one. Braun in 07 was a once-every-40-year occurrence.
Outside of that, you mentioned the big name rooks that will contribute.
Except for Albert Pujols seven years ago? I guess Braun's 15 sb make him better, but Pujols was better in every cat than bruan (save stolen bases). Point taken (and not trying to be a jerk, more of animated discussion effect here), but its not really every 40 years. It's not common, but its not ridiculously rare either.
I absolutely agree, i was also going to use Pujols' first full season lines as a basis for comparison
And while you might argue that Albert did play 161 games his first year and had 150 more AB's, the best Braun could have done with that probably would have been in the vicinity of 40/130, which would have him edge out Albert slightly. But to say that Braun's production with only ~450 AB's will not be equaled for the next 40 years is a bit too far-fetched. I think the issue for rookies/prospects is just finding a starting gig/full-time job...if that can be accomplished, they can use a hundred or so at-bats to try to adjust and find their zone. Let's revive this discussion in oh 6 -7 years, though i am willing to wager that we'll see another 30/90-100 rookie season from someone within the next 3 years.
12-Team Yahoo! H2H Keeper League - 3-Sport Dynasty - Year 4 - Jonny D's Team Keepers: Albert Pujols/Jose Reyes/Ryan Braun/Grady Sizemore/Evan Longoria/Tim Lincecum = SWEET!
I mean yea, he had more ABs, but that makes you wonder too. Albert had played 3rd, OF and 1b as positions he played. So for real life, you could make the comparison, since if Braun was so good, he would have had more ABs, except he isn't that good of a fielder. I know that is tortured, and we are here to talk about fantasy. As it pertains to fantasy, you still can't say its unparalleled, since it was, seven years ago. ABs or otherwise, the end result is Pujols had a comparable or even better year. We can't give Braun credit for something he didn't actually accomplish, we can only speculate. But I think it's fair to say that it isn't some "once in a generation" type thing either. Especially when in the same year as Pujols, you had Ichiro too. and I know people say he wasn't a rookie. But in my book, the MLB is the best league, and if you haven't played in it yet, you are most certainly a rookie, since it has the best collection of talent. You had nomar in 1997, which was better than Braun's and only 11 years ago, Mike Piazza in 1993 who was comparable, McGwire who was better in 1987, 21 years ago.
I just love this game, but fantasy sports also make fans a lot more short sighted, and it makes you wonder if the web was developed back then, how much more hyped these guys would have been for fantasy reasons.
Yoda wrote:To be fair, for fantasy purposes Braun was probably bigger than Pujols or any other rookie that I can think of.
That being said, Tulo wasn't so bad himself last year and neither was Hanley in 06. There is almost always someone that far exceeds expectations.
Still, I'm not sure I totally agree with that to be honest, didn't pujols also have third base eligibility? and we didn't even talk pitchers. Ultimate point is that braun was a monster, guys like that don't happen every year, but its not unheard of either.
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by kingmike74 » Thu Apr 03, 2008 11:22 am 
