Fantasy Baseball Cafe Forums

by **mktgteach** » Sat Mar 29, 2008 10:14 pm

Who has more long term upside?

by **cardinal1975** » Sat Mar 29, 2008 11:13 pm

I will say Cain for this simple reason. He is in the big leagues and has gotten better each of the last three years and is a solid #2 starter on a contender. Porcello has great stuff and coul-d be as good or better than Cain in the future. The likelihood of that happening however is less than 50%. A lot of can't miss high school pitchers(not to mention college can't miss guys)never come close to the big leagues let alone reach that type of potential. Ask Brien Taylor from 1991 when he would be up dominating for the Yankees. I doubt the answer for most people would be never let alone not making the big leagues. Remember Ben McDonald? Another dominating pitcher out of college who never made it past #3 or #4 starting pitcher on a staff. A lot of things can happen to an 18-19 year old kid on the way from 1st round can't miss to actually making the big leagues to being better than average let alone dominating. Maybe Pircello is the exception....maybe not. Maybe he blows his arm, labrum, elbow or shoulder and is never quite the same. Happens to hundreds of guys. There are a lot of reasons why I could say Cain or Porcello, but this was the most important. Cain is already there and Porcello will be playing A-ball and maybe AA by the end of the year if he is as good as some think he is and he does not get derailed by injuries. :-)

by **mktgteach** » Sun Mar 30, 2008 10:16 am

I see your points with one MAJOR exception. Matt Cain is not on a contender. He is pitching on quite possibly the worst MLB team this year and maybe years to come.

I know that Cain is already here and pitching well. I just have heard that Porcello has been compared to Josh Beckett, which would get anyone's attention. Anyone else have an opinion?

by **cardinal1975** » Sun Mar 30, 2008 11:19 am

I realize he is on the Giants which are a horrible team. I am saying his stuff is good enough to be a #2 on a contending team with a solid pitching staff and lineup. Porcello has been compared with Beckett, just remember that although Beckett reached the majors and pitched effectively at an early age(like Cain)it took him until 2007 before he actually put everything together. Porcello has a good of stuff as anybody not named Prcie in last year's draft, but he is much further away from reaching that potential.

by **hybrid** » Sun Mar 30, 2008 2:14 pm

Pretty much agree with Cardnal1975 on this one and I really like Porcello. But pitching prospects have a higher percentage of something going wrong. So you pretty much have to take the safer bet in Cain as he has already proven to be a nice young SP with potential left. You could sit down for a while naming pitching prospects who were highly ranked and who have failed, happens all the time. If Porcello had a year or two under him, I might say him but at this point it's just to risky.

by **Koby Schellenger** » Sun Mar 30, 2008 3:04 pm

In terms of just upside, Porcello has more. But that's partially a function of him not being given time to fail...yet.

by **raiders_umpire** » Mon Mar 31, 2008 12:50 pm

Rankings by just upside--Porcello, He has an extremely high ceiling.
Rankings for whom I would want in a trade--Cain by lots. He is already in the majors putting up some good numbers at a tender young age.

by **mission27** » Tue Apr 01, 2008 10:55 pm

raiders_umpire wrote:Rankings by just upside--Porcello, He has an extremely high ceiling.
Rankings for whom I would want in a trade--Cain by lots. He is already in the majors putting up some good numbers at a tender young age.

Yeah, its crazy to say Cain has more upside but Porcello is no guarantee to be in the majors anytime soon and Cain is already pitching effectively there.

by **MTUCache** » Sat Apr 05, 2008 11:07 pm

mission27 wrote:... but Porcello is no guarantee to be in the majors anytime soon...

Certainly no guarantee, but the fact that Kenny Rogers is 493 years old, and definitely won't be pitching forever, is a good indication that Dombrowski is going to get a lot of pressure to promote his young, highly paid, top-prospect as quickly as possible. Nothing against the rest of the Tigers' AAA starters, but the guys on Toledo's staff have got a nasty habit of ending up as long-relievers in the pen, while young studs (Bonderman, Verlander) get pushed right to the bigs.

I'd say there's a 90% chance that Porcello will make his big league debut this year or next, and will have a very concrete spot in the rotation 2010 or sooner.

by **Snakes Gould** » Sun Apr 06, 2008 12:33 am

raiders_umpire wrote:Rankings by just upside--Porcello, He has an extremely high ceiling.
Rankings for whom I would want in a trade--Cain by lots. He is already in the majors putting up some good numbers at a tender young age.

agreed. you gotta take the guy who is arguably already a top 20 SP in the league.