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Jonathan Sanchez - SP

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Re: Jonathan Sanchez - SP

Postby freeling_prideful » Wed Apr 30, 2008 9:30 pm

I didn't start him this week, since I was somewhat skeptical of his chances against a rightie-heavy lineup of excellent hitters. All in all, I'm pretty impressed he fought his way through 5.2 and only gave up 2 runs...

Next week I'm definitely putting him on the mound against Pittsburgh. One question, though: do you think he gets a 2-start week @ Pit and vs. Phi since the Giants have demoted Zito and might want to use a 4-man rotation? I don't really feel great about Sanchez v. Phillies, even w/ Rollins out and Howard ineffective.
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Re: Jonathan Sanchez - SP

Postby smoovethug » Wed Apr 30, 2008 9:42 pm

freeling_prideful wrote: I don't really feel great about Sanchez v. Phillies, even w/ Rollins out and Howard ineffective.


I do. Although the Phils have a potent lineup, it's a near perfect matchup for him. Phils are a dominant left-handed team and strike out a TON. If he can work deeper into the game I can see him nearing double digit K's.
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Re: Jonathan Sanchez - SP

Postby Philliebuster » Wed Apr 30, 2008 9:54 pm

More positive snipits on Sanchez...from Marc Normandin, Baseball Prospectus...


QuikERA estimates what a pitcher's ERA should be based solely on his strikeout rate, walk rate, and GB/FB ratio. These three components—K rate, BB rate, GB/FB—stabilize very quickly, and they have the strongest predictive relationship with a pitcher’s ERA going forward.

Jonathan Sanchez has posted excellent strikeout numbers, punching out over 31 percent of the batters he's faced in 28 innings pitched; between the strikeouts, a lower walk rate, and a 41 percent grounder rate, Sanchez has a QERA of 2.98, 0.56 points better than his actual ERA. His walk rate has been the concern in the past, because despite filthy stuff Sanchez would get himself into trouble handing out free passes to roughly five hitters per nine. Home runs were also an issue last season (1.4 HR/9 in '07), a surprise considering AT&T Park deflates offense, especially homers. Sanchez has cut his walk rate from 4.9 to 3.5 and shaved his home run rate to a rounded-up 1.0. Sanchez was also beat around to the tune of a .367 BABIP and 9.9 hits per nine innings in '07, but he's reduced those figures to .307 and 7.1 this respectively this year. With only a month of data to work with, it's difficult to say if that BABIP will stick, but there's nothing outstanding about his batted-ball distribution that makes you think it will change much in either direction. My main cause for concern is the Giants defense, which currently ranks 28th in Defensive Efficiency with a .679 mark.

Sanchez has done a better job of keeping his walks down by attacking with his fastball more often—according to Pitch f/x data, Sanchez has used his fastball nearly 81 percent of the time versus the 71-72 percent he used the past two seasons. He's using his changeup less often but utilizing his slider more often to compensate, and it's worked out for the lefty so far. Given the Giants defense probably isn't going to help him much in the five months to come, I think we'll see his hit rate jump a bit, but since he's already over his QERA a bit, I wouldn't worry about a large ERA hike.
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Re: Jonathan Sanchez - SP

Postby kidsafe » Fri May 02, 2008 5:30 am

Yoda wrote:I'd rather have Cueto. Guys who throw strikes tend to have much more success.

Sanchez has great stuff and he was one of my sleeper pitchers but he will definitely hit some rough patches due to his control.

I'll take a guy who can fan 40 in 33.2IP...and when I say fan I mean swinging strikeout. That's how Sanchez gets his Ks, by making batters look absolutely foolish. Cueto is definitely not looking hot right now having given up at least 5ER three times in six games pitched. The Reds aren't any good either, so Sanchez being on the Giants isn't that much of a penalty when comparing the two.

Having seen his fastball in person, not only does it have a significant lateral movement, but it appears to rise as well. Lefties are going to see lots of lazy flyballs to left field and righties...well the high inside fastball is a nasty pitch to hit.

Not to mention Cueto has already hit his first rough patch and Sanchez's rough patch amounted to a tough inning from which he escaped relatively unscathed. So far it looks like the people who spent #1 waiver priority on Cueto are feeling a lot of buyer's remorse now that Scherzer has been called up and will definitely start. Now the wait for Kershaw begins. I have #4 waiver priority right now, and am hoping to sneak him in in June or whenever he gets called up.
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Re: Jonathan Sanchez - SP

Postby Syfo-Dyas » Fri May 02, 2008 6:19 am

Rototimes lists Victor Santos and Patrick Misch as starters for next week, but theres no sign of Sanchez. 8-o
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Re: Jonathan Sanchez - SP

Postby kimchi_chigae » Fri May 02, 2008 7:03 am

Syfo-Dyas wrote:Rototimes lists Victor Santos and Patrick Misch as starters for next week, but theres no sign of Sanchez. 8-o


Eh? Sanchez is supposed to go on Tuesday against PIT. :-?
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Re: Jonathan Sanchez - SP

Postby Yoda » Fri May 02, 2008 9:13 am

kidsafe wrote:
Yoda wrote:I'd rather have Cueto. Guys who throw strikes tend to have much more success.

Sanchez has great stuff and he was one of my sleeper pitchers but he will definitely hit some rough patches due to his control.

I'll take a guy who can fan 40 in 33.2IP...and when I say fan I mean swinging strikeout. That's how Sanchez gets his Ks, by making batters look absolutely foolish. Cueto is definitely not looking hot right now having given up at least 5ER three times in six games pitched. The Reds aren't any good either, so Sanchez being on the Giants isn't that much of a penalty when comparing the two.

Having seen his fastball in person, not only does it have a significant lateral movement, but it appears to rise as well. Lefties are going to see lots of lazy flyballs to left field and righties...well the high inside fastball is a nasty pitch to hit.

Not to mention Cueto has already hit his first rough patch and Sanchez's rough patch amounted to a tough inning from which he escaped relatively unscathed. So far it looks like the people who spent #1 waiver priority on Cueto are feeling a lot of buyer's remorse now that Scherzer has been called up and will definitely start. Now the wait for Kershaw begins. I have #4 waiver priority right now, and am hoping to sneak him in in June or whenever he gets called up.


Even with the bad start, Cueto's xFIP is at 3.48 and Sanchez who hasn't hit any bumbs yet is at 3.52.

All those walks Sanchez issues will catch up to him at some point. They should be very close by the end of the season.
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Re: Jonathan Sanchez - SP

Postby Ender » Fri May 02, 2008 9:36 am

yeah I agree, I'd rather have Cueto than Sanchez. Same reason I picked Gallardo over Lincecum last year. Better team and better control. Sanchez has impressed me so far with his ability to not give up the really big inning but he has been in the position to give them up quite a few times already with the erratic control. I'm still playing matchups with him where I think I would start Cueto virtually every time.
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Re: Jonathan Sanchez - SP

Postby Yanks_Baby » Fri May 02, 2008 3:51 pm

Sanchez is more of a strikeout pitcher than Ceuto is. Not to say that they don't both K a lot, but to me atoeast, it appears Sanchez relies as the strikeout as an out, while Ceuto has a more mature approach and just tries to get outs, racking up K's along the way. What this means is that Ceuto will be more adaptable. Imagine Jonathon Sanchez facing the Angels(NL and AL I know, but just theoretically). They hardly ever strike out. Especially with Torii Hunter, Figgins, Kensrick, and Vlad. Facing a team like that, Sanchez's BB's would way outnumber his K's, and he'd end up oing no lmore than 5 innings, pitch count wise. Ceuto on the other hand has the ability to control situations in a more mature veteran manner. His only problem is his High HR Rate, but that wil lderease with experience.

I'd expect Ceuto to be more like Gallardo, while Sanchez will be more like Kyle Kendrick was last year.
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Re: Jonathan Sanchez - SP

Postby Secret Avatar » Fri May 02, 2008 5:34 pm

I have both Cueto and Sanchez so hope they both rock ;-D
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