Justin Morneau is not even a 5th rounder

[Holein1]

Morneau hit 24 hr before the all star break last year (with 80 rbi i think). I think your projections of less than 30 hr's are a bit weak. I could see a ceiling of 40 hr's

[AussieDodger]

Here's a question for you guys...

Morneau or Hafner? Morneau is being drafted about 6 picks before Haf.

Hafner Hafner Hafner Hafner Hafner Hafner
He is routinely falling into the 4th, which is way too tempting for me.
I see Morneau as someone who I would be avoiding altogether, because by the time I think it's worth it to get him, he's gone.

[rookies and cream]

I actually drafted Hafner at the end of the 6th (pick 72) in one of my leagues. I was shocked that he was still there!

[Matthias]

He was good in 06 but he was white hot in the second half.

I think this point is often overlooked. It's not just that his perceived value is tied to 2006; it's only tied to two months of 2006. That year, in a pretty deep league I was in, he was picked up and put back onto waivers about 3 times after frustrating with numerous 0-fers. That year, he had an April OBP of .274 (and an AVG of .208) and a May OBP of .333. Then in June and July he had OBPs of .400 and .430, SLGs of .737 and .700, and collected 18 of his 34 home runs for the year.

[Half Massed]

He was good in 06 but he was white hot in the second half.

I think this point is often overlooked. It's not just that his perceived value is tied to 2006; it's only tied to two months of 2006. That year, in a pretty deep league I was in, he was picked up and put back onto waivers about 3 times after frustrating with numerous 0-fers. That year, he had an April OBP of .274 (and an AVG of .208) and a May OBP of .333. Then in June and July he had OBPs of .400 and .430, SLGs of .737 and .700, and collected 18 of his 34 home runs for the year.

His best months were June and July in '06, but he was solid every month except April, where he was terrible. He did seem to lose some power at the end of '06 though. The streakiness was the same thing in '07, except reversed. He was great the first half of the season, then completely fell off the second half. He hit .295/.364/.581 pre-All Star break last year and only .243/.318/.384 after it.

If he can put up the season totals that he's putting up despite throwing in a .208/.274/.416 or a .227/.287/.336 month, he's worth a good draft pick. Given his age and major league time, I'm a little hesitant to label him streaky yet, although it definitely appears that way. He certainly has the ability to correct for those terrible months and maybe eliminate them completely in the future. Not to say that he won't go through slumps, but maybe just as not as bad of ones.

[JasonSeahorn]

Hope Morneau's hot streak comes during the fantasy playoffs.

[The Artful Dodger]

I've read that Morneau's 2nd half power swoon was attributed in some way to participating in the HR Derby (hence a spike in GB% and a sharp decrease in LD%). Morneau isn't quite what you'd call a technically sound hitter to begin with and his ceiling more or less lies as a .280, 35 HR type.

[brock middlebrook]

I know it's only been 2 games, but JM has looked T E R R I B L E at the plate.

His 1st half numbers in 2006 and 2007 tell me that the kid has potential. I hope the Twins hitting coach can help him figure it out.

[bigwords]

So what do we think about Morneau for next year, folks?

[Bloody Sox]

Definitely not even a 5th rounder

I find it interesting that most of the argument in this thread centered around whether Morneau would hit .270 with 30 HRs, and 100 RBIs. Kind of odd that he ended up at .300 (exceeding expectations), 23 HRs (below expectations), and 130 RBIs (far exceeding expectations).

I like him in the late 3rd, early 4th round again next year, which is about where I had him ranked this year.