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Justin Morneau is not even a 5th rounder

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Re: Justin Morneau is not even a 5th rounder

Postby BronXBombers51 » Sat Mar 29, 2008 9:38 am

I'm not as low on Morneau as NZF, but I'm really not high on him either. I don't see him being much better than 30-100-.275, and I can get that much later in the draft.
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Re: Justin Morneau is not even a 5th rounder

Postby thehotcorner » Sat Mar 29, 2008 10:00 am

byfrcp wrote:It's the fact that he put those numbers as his "ceiling". That means he would be shocked if he reached those numbers. He's basically putting his projection at .260, 22HR, and 80 RBI. And that's just wrong.


And the fact that you said 280-30-110 is as low as he'll go in anything means you'd be shocked if he did not reach any of those totals. Shocked that a career 276 hitter hits under 280? Shocked that a guy who hit 31HR and 111RBI last yr doesn't hit 30-110 this year?

Remember Minnesota's offense didn't get any better, it got worse. Adam Everett? Carlos Gomez?

Your projection is reasonable but i don't think its 'as low as he'll go in anything.' Would you be surprised if he went 270-29-95? I wouldn't.

As for 280-30-110, I'll take the over on the HR and the under on AVG/RBI.
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Re: Justin Morneau is not even a 5th rounder

Postby thehotcorner » Sat Mar 29, 2008 10:07 am

Here's Morneau's PECOTA for 2008

271-24-96 in 637 PA, that of course is his weighted means projection.

75th Percentile projection
284-28-104 in 640 PA

90th percentile projection
294-31-113 in 662 PA
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Re: Justin Morneau is not even a 5th rounder

Postby J35J » Sat Mar 29, 2008 10:15 am

I could easily see 10 other 1B being better than Morneau this year....wouldn't suprise me at all.

Something like .277/33/105 sounds about right to me. I would be a little suprised if he didn't hit 30 hr.
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Re: Justin Morneau is not even a 5th rounder

Postby Yoda » Sat Mar 29, 2008 10:16 am

He is very overrated and I have him in 0 leagues this year. He was good in 06 but he was white hot in the second half. A lot of his value is tied to age and potential versus his baseline production.

06 he had a much higher BABIP and LD% compared to the other seasons. Not saying he can't return to that level but you shouldn't expect it going into 08.

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He's capable of putting up .280 AVG but honestly, what is the point of taking a 1B who is expected to provide .280-30-100-100-0 with your top 3 or 4 picks? There are plenty of 1B you can get much later in the draft like Konerko for instance. He is riding on his MVP season but good owners would recognize that he is vastly overrated.
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Re: Justin Morneau is not even a 5th rounder

Postby byfrcp » Sat Mar 29, 2008 10:53 am

The point is I'm not saying he's a 3rd rounder, I'm saying if you got him in the 6th round and didn't think it was a good value I'd have to question you. A lot of people use the "I could get that later in the draft" defense for a lot of picks that they don't like, but the fact is you still need to get it. Why draft Phillips when you can get Weeks 8 rounds later? Why take Johan Santana when you can get Smoltz 6 rounds later? Because they are more sure things. In my eyes Morneau is a sure thing for 30, 110.

I don't have Justin on any of my teams and actually never have had him any year. I would agree with anyone who passes on him to sure up a scarcer position, but to pass on him in favor of an SP, RP or different 1B in the 4th round would be a mistake.
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Re: Justin Morneau is not even a 5th rounder

Postby Yoda » Sat Mar 29, 2008 11:20 am

byfrcp wrote:The point is I'm not saying he's a 3rd rounder, I'm saying if you got him in the 6th round and didn't think it was a good value I'd have to question you. A lot of people use the "I could get that later in the draft" defense for a lot of picks that they don't like, but the fact is you still need to get it. Why draft Phillips when you can get Weeks 8 rounds later? Why take Johan Santana when you can get Smoltz 6 rounds later? Because they are more sure things. In my eyes Morneau is a sure thing for 30, 110.

I don't have Justin on any of my teams and actually never have had him any year. I would agree with anyone who passes on him to sure up a scarcer position, but to pass on him in favor of an SP, RP or different 1B in the 4th round would be a mistake.


I don't think Morneau would last until the 6th round unless you are playing in a 6 team league.

And I'm fairly confident that Konerko and AGon will be just as if not more productive Morneau this year.
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Re: Justin Morneau is not even a 5th rounder

Postby rookies and cream » Sat Mar 29, 2008 11:32 am

Here's a question for you guys...

Morneau or Hafner? Morneau is being drafted about 6 picks before Haf.
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Re: Justin Morneau is not even a 5th rounder

Postby byfrcp » Sat Mar 29, 2008 11:32 am

Yoda wrote:
byfrcp wrote:The point is I'm not saying he's a 3rd rounder, I'm saying if you got him in the 6th round and didn't think it was a good value I'd have to question you. A lot of people use the "I could get that later in the draft" defense for a lot of picks that they don't like, but the fact is you still need to get it. Why draft Phillips when you can get Weeks 8 rounds later? Why take Johan Santana when you can get Smoltz 6 rounds later? Because they are more sure things. In my eyes Morneau is a sure thing for 30, 110.

I don't have Justin on any of my teams and actually never have had him any year. I would agree with anyone who passes on him to sure up a scarcer position, but to pass on him in favor of an SP, RP or different 1B in the 4th round would be a mistake.


I don't think Morneau would last until the 6th round unless you are playing in a 6 team league.

And I'm fairly confident that Konerko and AGon will be just as if not more productive Morneau this year.


If you look at the title of this thread, NZF thinks Morneau is a 6th rounder.
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Re: Justin Morneau is not even a 5th rounder

Postby Field » Sat Mar 29, 2008 11:44 am

rookies and cream wrote:Here's a question for you guys...

Morneau or Hafner? Morneau is being drafted about 6 picks before Haf.


Neither, I don't like where they are being drafted. If you've waited that long to get a 1B you might as well keep waiting for Agon.

If I had to choose between the two I would probably give an edge to Morneau since Hafner's drop-off scares me away.
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