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Justin Morneau is not even a 5th rounder

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Justin Morneau is not even a 5th rounder

Postby NZ Eff » Sat Mar 29, 2008 12:43 am

Justin Morneau is going off the boards in the third round (often early). Those getting him in the fourth say they're getting a bargain. Really???

He has shown he just can't hit lefties and in a seriously weakened lineup RHP will just pitch around him. IMO his ceiling in 2008 is 30 HR's, 90 RBI's 80 Runs and a .270 BA and I'd expect quite a bit less. Similar numbers to Carlos Delgado and worse than Gonzalez and Swisher who are going much later.
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Re: Justin Morneau is not even a 5th rounder

Postby byfrcp » Sat Mar 29, 2008 12:53 am

What can I say... you're right about everything. He was just extremely lucky to hit .315 off lefties in '06.

30 HR, 110 RBI, 90 R, .280 would be as low as he'll go in anything. He has more value than you have intelligence.
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Re: Justin Morneau is not even a 5th rounder

Postby Snakes Gould » Sat Mar 29, 2008 1:30 am

byfrcp wrote:What can I say... you're right about everything. He was just extremely lucky to hit .315 off lefties in '06.

30 HR, 110 RBI, 90 R, .280 would be as low as he'll go in anything. He has more value than you have intelligence.


i could see hit hitting .270-.275 with 30 hr 100 rbi...pretty safe projection there. im not a big morneau guy, but i would feel comfortable with him getting those numbers.
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Re: Justin Morneau is not even a 5th rounder

Postby v0r0s » Sat Mar 29, 2008 1:38 am

Morneau's seasonal average: .276/31hr/112rbi/84r
Entering his aged 27 season, you'd be a fool to say that his "ceiling" is lower than his average season.
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Re: Justin Morneau is not even a 5th rounder

Postby BJSFAN123 » Sat Mar 29, 2008 1:40 am

Not a huge fan of Morneau, but I think he ends up hitting .280ish, 30-35hr, 105-115 rbi. Also, I believe he could easily do better than this.

I do agree that I'd rather take Adrian Gonzalez since you can get him later, but PETCO really hurts his value. He would be an absolute stud if he played somewhere else.
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Re: Justin Morneau is not even a 5th rounder

Postby Grounded Polo » Sat Mar 29, 2008 8:56 am

NZ Eff wrote:Justin Morneau is going off the boards in the third round (often early). Those getting him in the fourth say they're getting a bargain. Really???

He has shown he just can't hit lefties and in a seriously weakened lineup RHP will just pitch around him. IMO his ceiling in 2008 is 30 HR's, 90 RBI's 80 Runs and a .270 BA and I'd expect quite a bit less. Similar numbers to Carlos Delgado and worse than Gonzalez and Swisher who are going much later.


2006 LHP splits: 213 AB, 30 R, 13 HR, 47 RBI, .315/.345/.559

Small sample size or not, there's obviously potential for Morneau to improve against LHP based off those numbers alone.

He'll get more RBIs than 90 just if Joe Mauer can play close to a full season, he was always on the DL and their 1/2 hitters were awful during the second half. It's amazing that he even reached 110 RBIs when Mauer was out half the time and guys like Alexi Casilla and Jason Bartlett were at the top of the order. Carlos Gomez, a healthy Joe Mauer, and Delmon Young are a huge upgrade. It will be hard for RHP to put Morneau on base when other guys will actually be there already unlike last season.
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Re: Justin Morneau is not even a 5th rounder

Postby thehotcorner » Sat Mar 29, 2008 9:20 am

You guys keep pointing to his 2006 season, which looks more like a fluke than the norm. In 5 seasons he's hit over .271 just once, that was in 2006 when he somehow managed to hit .321

His splits aganst lefties every other year?

2003
26AB .154

2004
75AB .240

2005
154AB .201

2007
202AB .228

Total (including 2006) 248/293/433 in 670 ABs.

byfrcp wrote:What can I say... you're right about everything. He was just extremely lucky to hit .315 off lefties in '06.

30 HR, 110 RBI, 90 R, .280 would be as low as he'll go in anything. He has more value than you have intelligence.


He had a career high LD% (6% higher than any other year), BABIP (55% higher than any other year), and career low GB% and IF/F% in 2006. Lucky season or just a fluke, call it whatever you want but thats what it was.

So while I think NZ might be stretching it a bit saying 270-30-90 is his ceiling, it's not any crazier than saying 280-30-110 is his floor. Or any crazier than betting on Mauer's health to help Morneau's numbers.
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Re: Justin Morneau is not even a 5th rounder

Postby Y`s Guy » Sat Mar 29, 2008 9:27 am

thehotcorner wrote:You guys keep pointing to his 2006 season, which looks more like a fluke than the norm. In 5 seasons he's hit over .271 just once, that was in 2006 when he somehow managed to hit .321

His splits aganst lefties every other year?

2003
26AB .154

2004
75AB .240

2005
154AB .201

2007
202AB .228

Total (including 2006) 248/293/433 in 670 ABs.

byfrcp wrote:What can I say... you're right about everything. He was just extremely lucky to hit .315 off lefties in '06.

30 HR, 110 RBI, 90 R, .280 would be as low as he'll go in anything. He has more value than you have intelligence.


He had a career high LD% (6% higher than any other year), BABIP (55% higher than any other year), and career low GB% and IF/F% in 2006. Lucky season or just a fluke, call it whatever you want but thats what it was.

So while I think NZ might be stretching it a bit saying 270-30-90 is his ceiling, it's not any crazier than saying 280-30-110 is his floor. Or any crazier than betting on Mauer's health to help Morneau's numbers.


Excellent post, hot corner. Looking forward to seeing byfrcp's reply. His projection compared to EZ's really isn't that different (over a season) and he inferred him to be a moron. :-°
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Re: Justin Morneau is not even a 5th rounder

Postby byfrcp » Sat Mar 29, 2008 9:33 am

Here's my reply. Morneau will hit .280, 30 HR, and drive in 110 RBI. And I dare you to tell me he won't.

The fact that he's a .276 hitter leads me to believe that he can hit .280 at age 27.

The fact that the past 2 years he has hit 65 HR leads me to believe he will hit 30 HR.

The fact that the past 2 years he's had 241 RBI leads me to believe he will have 110 RBI.

You can throw out your SABR's but if you don't think he will do those 3 things you need to look past them and realize that if he gets 590 AB's like he has the past 2 years he will get those numbers.

And I'm not even that high on him.
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Re: Justin Morneau is not even a 5th rounder

Postby byfrcp » Sat Mar 29, 2008 9:36 am

Y`s Guy wrote:Excellent post, hot corner. Looking forward to seeing byfrcp's reply. His projection compared to EZ's really isn't that different (over a season) and he inferred him to be a moron. :-°


It's the fact that he put those numbers as his "ceiling". That means he would be shocked if he reached those numbers. He's basically putting his projection at .260, 22HR, and 80 RBI. And that's just wrong.
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