Holds...

[baseball genius]

I just joined a 7x7 keeper league where they count holds as an extra pitching category. Can somebody produce a list of the pitchers projected to get the most holds. Thanks.

[Apex]

Look here ---

http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/foru ... 29&start=0

[DieHardCubbie]

Look here ---

http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/foru ... 29&start=0

Thanks Apex....

[GotowarMissAgnes]

I'm working on projecting holds (have not seen these on a free site, but I see some of the books and pay sites have them). Here's a very rough list, fwiw

Lidge: 26
Donnelly: 24
Worrell: 22
Bradford: 19
Hawkins: 24
Quantrill: 30
Beck: 16
Gordon: 19
Riske: 17
Valverde: 15
K-Rod: 14
Ayala: 14
Fuentes: 14
Eischen: 13
Mota: 14
Shuey: 17
Shiggy: 14
Weathers: 17
Eyre: 19
Farnsworth: 17
F-Rod: 21
BJRyan: 18
Timlin: 17
JLopez: 11
THarper: 12
TAdams: 15
Villarreal: 11
Ligtenberg: 15
Leskanic: 15
Cormier: 13
Embree: 15
Williamson: 23
Sullivan: 14
Martin: 21
Romero: 25
Walker: 12
Rincon: 23
Grimsley: 18
Sauerbeck: 25
King: 17
Kline: 20
Remlinger: 20
Boehringer: 22
Groom: 19
Stanton: 12
Fox: 17
Marte: 23

[baseball genius]

Thanks for the list but it would be a lot eaiser to follow had you put the list in order from most to least.

[srthree]

Excel works wonders. Thanks Gotowar...

Quantrill 30
Lidge 26
Romero 25
Sauerbeck 25
Donnelly 24
Hawkins 24
Marte 23
Rincon 23
Williamson 23
Boehringer 22
Worrell 22
F-Rod 21
Martin 21
Kline 20
Remlinger 20
Bradford 19
Eyre 19
Gordon 19
Groom 19
BJRyan 18
Grimsley 18
Farnsworth 17
Fox 17
King 17
Riske 17
Shuey 17
Timlin 17
Weathers 17
Beck 16
Embree 15
Leskanic 15
Ligtenberg 15
TAdams 15
Valverde 15
Ayala 14
Fuentes 14
K-Rod 14
Mota 14
Shiggy 14
Sullivan 14
Cormier 13
Eischen 13
Stanton 12
THarper 12
Walker 12
JLopez 11
Villarreal 11

[wrveres]

Thanks GTWMA ...

how are you projecting? Three year averages or just logical guess?
I think the problem with holds, is it truly depends upon the managers. Do they have a fast hook or not?. Do they have a solid Lefty in the pen to rely on? Also, only a few teams have that 8th innning guy. I understand that holds can come anywhere from the 5th on, but projecting them seems like a pain in the ass.

In My 16tm NL only game. we counts holds and saves. i currently have Worrell.. Stanton .. Valverde and my sole closer Kolb. Everysingle on I got off the wire. Stanton was a trade toss in.

IMHO, If you can't get one of the big guns, Lidge, Mota and the likes, I would wait and not even draft the position until very last.

[GotowarMissAgnes]

Thanks GTWMA ...

how are you projecting? Three year averages or just logical guess?
I think the problem with holds, is it truly depends upon the managers. Do they have a fast hook or not?. Do they have a solid Lefty in the pen to rely on? Also, only a few teams have that 8th innning guy. I understand that holds can come anywhere from the 5th on, but projecting them seems like a pain in the ass.

In My 16tm NL only game. we counts holds and saves. i currently have Worrell.. Stanton .. Valverde and my sole closer Kolb. Everysingle on I got off the wire. Stanton was a trade toss in.

IMHO, If you can't get one of the big guns, Lidge, Mota and the likes, I would wait and not even draft the position until very last.

This is why it's taking so long!
Sorry for not sorting before I pasted. Like I said, it's a work in progress. (BTW, if anybody has projections from one of the pay sites, I'd be interested in how mine compare)

I start with a 3 year average that is heavily weighted towards the most recent year (I found that correlations across the years drop dramatically after one year).

I then look at a number of factors, including:

Changes/make-up in pitching staff (e.g., Lidge is going to get more opportunities with Dotel closing now). This also includes the starters and closers and what I call the "contrast"--if you have 5 righty starters and one lefty set-up guy, guess who's going to get some extra chances for a hold.

I also look at some team information. Team win projections and past year's of team holds give you an idea about opportunities and managerial tendencies (for this I also look at data on mangerial pitching tendencies, like quick hooks, 1 batter appearances, etc.).

I use these just to factor in whether to bump up or down 5-7 holds off of the projection, unless there's a major change.

I agree with the strategy you outline. I try to grab one guy that I think I can count on for 20+ holds in rounds 15-20 somewhere in my 16 team, 25 round draft. Then in rounds 20-25, I'll pick up 2 more. After that, it's waiver city as roles adjust. Then, by mid-season I'm usually riding 2-4 guys home.

Keep in mind that many top holders also have high K rates, and low WHIP/ERA. They are also top picks for closers, which can give them great trade value. I've used holders to close many a 2-1 or 302 trade deal.

[wrveres]

Again Thanks ... GTWMA

[EricF]

Last I heard, from the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette in January, free agent Scott Sauerbeck was going to undergo shoulder surgery and miss the 2004 season. He's high on gotowarMissAgnes's holds list. Does anyone have any more recent information?