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Lackey/Kazmir

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Re: Lackey/Kazmir

Postby PavanoAllstars » Fri Mar 28, 2008 8:59 pm

Looking at Lackey's innings over the past years I'm concerned about him. He dropped to round 12 in our draft and of course I drafted Kazmir high (6th round) reaching for him before the news came out that his spring training rehab hit a snag. Typical.

Bottom line, i'm happier having Kazmir on my team than Lackey, even if Lackey went lower because Lackey's injury and workload scare me more so.

I think both will still provide value this year but Kazmir will get more innings.
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Re: Lackey/Kazmir

Postby mielke » Fri Mar 28, 2008 9:42 pm

Bogey9906 wrote:
mielke wrote:Has there been any talk at all of Lackey's elbow since early in camp .. it seemed like it barked ... then calmed down and everything was supposedly OK ... then the triceps.

is there any reason for concern with the elbow other than just speculation and people putting 2 and 3 together ... ?

Obviously if it's just the triceps at this point, that is not so big of an issue.

For me, it's just speculation because of the two arm issues coming up so soon for a guy that has been very durable to this point. He could be back in May and be fine, but at least Kazmir is on a throwing schedule with an April return estimate. There seems to be more unknown about Lackey right now, and hence more risk.

I had planned all winter to keep Lackey as a 14th round pick until a couple of days before my draft. I decided to toss him back because of the injury and kept Hermida in the 19th instead (and now he's going on the DL too). Now, if only I'd drafted Felix instead of Kazmir, I'd be sitting pretty going into the season instead of looking for every little rehab update each day!



Where would you currently rank these guys: Lackey, Kazmir, Halladay, Felix H., Cain, Hudson ....
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Re: Lackey/Kazmir

Postby PavanoAllstars » Fri Mar 28, 2008 10:01 pm

Lackey, Kazmir, Halladay, Felix H., Cain, Hudson ...

Providing Kazmir comes back in mid-April, Lackey in mid-May?

1) Felix (who is also an injury risk in his own way... but sky's the limit)
2) Kazmir (providing he makes 30-29 starts)
3) Halladay (low k/9 but gets you CGs)
4) Lackey (providing he comes back mid may because he's the best of this bunch talent wise.)
5) Cain (also extremely talented, but no offense to back him up!)
6) Hudson (great pitcher but just a tier lower than these other dudes)

-mind you, i'm a Kazmir owner and he has me on eggshells, BUT, the rays expect him to pitch 200 innings this year... i'm not sure if I buy that, but say he pitchers 190... could still top 200ks...
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Re: Lackey/Kazmir

Postby YerInUrine » Sat Mar 29, 2008 3:30 pm

Im staying away from both of them. 3500 pitch club. http://kobayashibaseball.blogspot.com/2008/02/3500-club.html
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Re: Lackey/Kazmir

Postby Bogey9906 » Sat Mar 29, 2008 6:17 pm

YerInUrine wrote:Im staying away from both of them. 3500 pitch club. http://kobayashibaseball.blogspot.com/2008/02/3500-club.html

Consider me unimpressed with this 3500 pitch club research. Yes, guys throw more pitches during their good years because they are going longer in each game and, by definition, are healthy in their good years. Then they might have a year that's not quite as good and then sometime in the next five years they have a bad year. Just normal ups and downs of pitching IMO. There's no direct cause and effect and no reliable, repeatable conclusion that can be drawn from this list. And why 3500? Is 3480 pitches a 'safe' number but 3520 suddenly means TJ surgery next year?
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Re: Lackey/Kazmir

Postby YerInUrine » Sat Mar 29, 2008 8:06 pm

Bogey9906 wrote:
YerInUrine wrote:Im staying away from both of them. 3500 pitch club. http://kobayashibaseball.blogspot.com/2008/02/3500-club.html

Consider me unimpressed with this 3500 pitch club research. Yes, guys throw more pitches during their good years because they are going longer in each game and, by definition, are healthy in their good years. Then they might have a year that's not quite as good and then sometime in the next five years they have a bad year. Just normal ups and downs of pitching IMO. There's no direct cause and effect and no reliable, repeatable conclusion that can be drawn from this list. And why 3500? Is 3480 pitches a 'safe' number but 3520 suddenly means TJ surgery next year?


A valid point, but I am not going to rely on a car that has had a ton of miles racked up on it.
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Re: Lackey/Kazmir

Postby stevekahuda » Sun Mar 30, 2008 11:56 am

Yoda wrote:
stevekahuda wrote:Long toss doesn't really count :-/ . Geez, where have I heard that before (Harden, cough, cough). When he's throwing a baseball in the 70s - 80s again without pain, then I would trust him enough to draft him. MLB teams lie all the time about injuries. I hope he's not hurt, but I wouldn't take him over a pitcher i would think would be useful fantasy wise. Pitchers are enough of a crapshoot without drafting guys that already have injuries.


So you are comparing Kazmir to Harden while blatantly ignoring a bigger injury risk in Lackey?

stevekahuda wrote:If Lackey starts throwing again soon, i would consider him less of a risk


Can you say hypocrite?


This is not inconsistent, its the type of injury. If the Angels said his triceps injury was an elbow injury (which they originally thought) I would be much more concerned. Look, I'm a Phillies fan, and whenever I hear elbow and pain in the same sentence, it means a guys is done for the year (at least). In recent years, that seems to be less of the case, perhaps teams are more judicious now in shutting down strains before they become full tears, I don't know. The fact that Kazmir's injury is his elbow and Lackey's injury is a muscle makes all of the difference to me. I would not draft a pitcher with elbow pain/discomfort unless they fell to me in an unreasonably high round where I was already happy with my rotation.
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Re: Lackey/Kazmir

Postby Yoda » Mon Mar 31, 2008 12:01 am

stevekahuda wrote:
Yoda wrote:
stevekahuda wrote:Long toss doesn't really count :-/ . Geez, where have I heard that before (Harden, cough, cough). When he's throwing a baseball in the 70s - 80s again without pain, then I would trust him enough to draft him. MLB teams lie all the time about injuries. I hope he's not hurt, but I wouldn't take him over a pitcher i would think would be useful fantasy wise. Pitchers are enough of a crapshoot without drafting guys that already have injuries.


So you are comparing Kazmir to Harden while blatantly ignoring a bigger injury risk in Lackey?

stevekahuda wrote:If Lackey starts throwing again soon, i would consider him less of a risk


Can you say hypocrite?


This is not inconsistent, its the type of injury. If the Angels said his triceps injury was an elbow injury (which they originally thought) I would be much more concerned. Look, I'm a Phillies fan, and whenever I hear elbow and pain in the same sentence, it means a guys is done for the year (at least). In recent years, that seems to be less of the case, perhaps teams are more judicious now in shutting down strains before they become full tears, I don't know. The fact that Kazmir's injury is his elbow and Lackey's injury is a muscle makes all of the difference to me. I would not draft a pitcher with elbow pain/discomfort unless they fell to me in an unreasonably high round where I was already happy with my rotation.


What exactly does being a Phillies fan have to do with anything?

Lackey hurt his arm twice in Spring Training. Kazmir is throwing off the mound and feels great. Where is Lackey?
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Re: Lackey/Kazmir

Postby stevekahuda » Mon Mar 31, 2008 7:35 am

Whenever a Phillies pitcher has a sore elbow, its been code for TJ sugery. This is almost without exception over the last 25 years I've followed the team. So, I'm conditioned to associate an elbow injury with impending surgery. Harden also felt great. I don't trust the Rays any more than I trust the Blue Jays when it comes to injury reports and press releases. They are one of the least transparent organizations.
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Re: Lackey/Kazmir

Postby ILLmjdINI » Mon Mar 31, 2008 9:08 am

So then what's the latest consensus on these two? When do they come back? If/when they do, do they stay healthy?
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