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Soriano could be traded!?!

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Postby Madison » Sun Feb 22, 2004 4:15 am

wrveres wrote:drafting too many Mets is Roto suicide.

I'll take the one behind the plate. :-)


I'll take the one behind the plate's replacement. ;-)
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Postby Dude86 » Sun Feb 22, 2004 4:21 am

If you think Reyes is just another Roger Cedeno than you've obviously never seen him play.
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Postby wrveres » Sun Feb 22, 2004 4:36 am

Actaully the similarities are striking. Roger was a better hitter and faster at age 20 though. If LA just wouldn't have rushed him along .. ALA NYM and Reyes ;-) things may be different today. There is something to be gained by developing in the Minor Leagues.

Reyes only has 1200 minor leagues AB's Ideally he should get another 800 minor league AB's or two more seasons in the minor leagues. At least one. they are rushing him and my guess is they will do the same with Kazmir too .
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Postby HOOTIE » Sun Feb 22, 2004 5:54 am

Dude86 wrote:Whats not to believe? Reyes is awesome and Kazmir could be the next Kerry Wood if not better.



Chances are probably about 90% he's not. Wood is a pretty darn good sp. Kazmir is good, but hasn't thrown above A ball, and isn't the biggest of guys. I would send any prospect to land Soriano. I remember when Gllick refused to trade Ryan Anderson in BGiles talks about 3 years ago. GMS tend to overvalue prospects.
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Postby unclepaulie » Sun Feb 22, 2004 6:11 am

wrveres wrote:
Dude86 wrote:Whats not to believe? Reyes is awesome and Kazmir could be the next Kerry Wood if not better.



Scott is 5-7 with 127 professional innings pitched. Its a little early to call him the next Kerry Wood. yes he has a few K's for a 19 year old kid, Butits waaay to early ..

Reyes is a career .288 minor league hitter with no power. That projects to a speedy .270 hitter in the MLB. So basically he projects to be another Roger Cedeno ;-D

but the problem here is .....
They will be playing for the Mets. And drafting too many Mets is
Roto suicide. usually my limit is one. I'll take the one behind the plate. :-)


Ohh, maybe we should draft a bunch of Padres???? Are they telling thier fans they will COMPETE??? WHAT A JOKE!!!!
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Postby wrveres » Sun Feb 22, 2004 6:12 am

unclepaulie wrote:
wrveres wrote:
Dude86 wrote:Whats not to believe? Reyes is awesome and Kazmir could be the next Kerry Wood if not better.



Scott is 5-7 with 127 professional innings pitched. Its a little early to call him the next Kerry Wood. yes he has a few K's for a 19 year old kid, Butits waaay to early ..

Reyes is a career .288 minor league hitter with no power. That projects to a speedy .270 hitter in the MLB. So basically he projects to be another Roger Cedeno ;-D

but the problem here is .....
They will be playing for the Mets. And drafting too many Mets is
Roto suicide. usually my limit is one. I'll take the one behind the plate. :-)


Ohh, maybe we should draft a bunch of Padres???? Are they telling thier fans they will COMPETE??? WHAT A JOKE!!!!


and where are you going with this .. ?
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Postby unclepaulie » Sun Feb 22, 2004 6:19 am

Where am I going? Comparing Reyes to Cedeno is just laughable. How did you come up with that one?
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Postby wrveres » Sun Feb 22, 2004 7:55 am

Well since they are both Mets, I figured it would be easier for a Mets fan to understand that there are more failures than success stories when dealing with 20 yead old prospects ...

Roger Cedeno at age 18 .. ..316BA, 40sb, 2HR
Jose Reyes at age 18 .. 307 BA, 30sb, 5HR

Roger Cedeno at age 19 .. .288 BA, 28sb, 4HR
Jose Reyes at age 19 .. 287 BA, 58sb, 8HR

Roger Cedeno at age 20 .. .321 BA, 30sb, 4HR
Jose Reyes at age 20 .. 292 BA, 39sb, 5HR

Roger Cedeno at age 21 .. .298 BA, 24sb, 2HR
Jose Reyes at 21 in 2004 ... ??? ??? ???

considering where Cedeno is now in the hearts and minds of Mets fans, I thought this would be easier to understand. I guess I was wrong.

Reyes may be a little faster. I stand corrected on that. ty
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sun Feb 22, 2004 8:36 am

wrveres wrote:Well since they are both Mets, I figured it would be easier for a Mets fan to understand that there are more failures than success stories when dealing with 20 yead old prospects ...

Roger Cedeno at age 18 .. ..316BA, 40sb, 2HR
Jose Reyes at age 18 .. 307 BA, 30sb, 5HR

Roger Cedeno at age 19 .. .288 BA, 28sb, 4HR
Jose Reyes at age 19 .. 287 BA, 58sb, 8HR

Roger Cedeno at age 20 .. .321 BA, 30sb, 4HR
Jose Reyes at age 20 .. 292 BA, 39sb, 5HR

Roger Cedeno at age 21 .. .298 BA, 24sb, 2HR
Jose Reyes at 21 in 2004 ... ??? ??? ???

considering where Cedeno is now in the hearts and minds of Mets fans, I thought this would be easier to understand. I guess I was wrong.

Reyes may be a little faster. I stand corrected on that. ty


I think you underestimate Reyes here, wrveres. You've done an age adjustment, but not a level of play adjustment. Also, by focusing solely on HRs, you miss overall slugging.

At 18 Reyes posted his numbers in A ball. Cedeno posted his numbers in rookie league ball. Cedeno slugged .402 in rookie ball. Reyes slugged .468 in A ball. That's a HUGE difference that isn't visible in the HRs.

At age 19, those are mostly AA numbers, though Reyes spent some time. At the end of minor league careers, however, Cedeno had slugged .376 in AA, while Reyes had slugged .425 at similar ages. Again, a 50 point difference in slugging percentage is huge.

Ate age 20, that's a full AAA season for Cedeno, while Reyes posted half of those numbers in the majors, matching Cedeno while at the same time jumping levels. Cedeno does have a much higer slugging at this level, but he was playing in the PCL at the time; I'd need to park adjust those.

So, basically Reyes is like Cedeno, except that that he stole 25% more bases and slugged 50 points higher, often at a younger age or higher playing level. Think Cedeno, but add 5-10 SBs, and 25-75 points of slugging percentage.
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Postby wrveres » Sun Feb 22, 2004 8:48 am

GotowarMissAgnes wrote: Think Cedeno, but add 5-10 SBs, and 25-75 points of slugging percentage.


Fair enough.... ;-D
Shea stadium will keep that around 25 points of slugging pct. vs.the 75 though.

again, I only used Cedeno, cus he is a Met, to help drive home the point of 21 year old prospects. Reyes may turn out to be all that he is advertised. Its still way to early to tell. If I had to gamble on an MI, it sure won't be a Met.. Just my opinion ..
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