wrveres wrote:Well since they are both Mets, I figured it would be easier for a Mets fan to understand that there are more failures than success stories when dealing with 20 yead old prospects ...
Roger Cedeno at age 18 .. ..316BA, 40sb, 2HR
Jose Reyes at age 18 .. 307 BA, 30sb, 5HR
Roger Cedeno at age 19 .. .288 BA, 28sb, 4HR
Jose Reyes at age 19 .. 287 BA, 58sb, 8HR
Roger Cedeno at age 20 .. .321 BA, 30sb, 4HR
Jose Reyes at age 20 .. 292 BA, 39sb, 5HR
Roger Cedeno at age 21 .. .298 BA, 24sb, 2HR
Jose Reyes at 21 in 2004 ... ??? ??? ???
considering where Cedeno is now in the hearts and minds of Mets fans, I thought this would be easier to understand. I guess I was wrong.
Reyes may be a little faster. I stand corrected on that. ty
I think you underestimate Reyes here, wrveres. You've done an age adjustment, but not a level of play adjustment. Also, by focusing solely on HRs, you miss overall slugging.
At 18 Reyes posted his numbers in A ball. Cedeno posted his numbers in rookie league ball. Cedeno slugged .402 in rookie ball. Reyes slugged .468 in A ball. That's a HUGE difference that isn't visible in the HRs.
At age 19, those are mostly AA numbers, though Reyes spent some time. At the end of minor league careers, however, Cedeno had slugged .376 in AA, while Reyes had slugged .425 at similar ages. Again, a 50 point difference in slugging percentage is huge.
Ate age 20, that's a full AAA season for Cedeno, while Reyes posted half of those numbers in the majors, matching Cedeno while at the same time jumping levels. Cedeno does have a much higer slugging at this level, but he was playing in the PCL at the time; I'd need to park adjust those.
So, basically Reyes is like Cedeno, except that that he stole 25% more bases and slugged 50 points higher, often at a younger age or higher playing level. Think Cedeno, but add 5-10 SBs, and 25-75 points of slugging percentage.