I think Lyon will be the first. Pena should be the replacement. I agree with the others you mentioned as being possible candidates. I guess Wood has to be listed , because he may get injured. Howry or Marmol would be the replacement. I guess I would lean towards Howry, since Marmol can throw multiple innings as he did last year. Saito has had some minor issues this spring. He's 38 so he has a little risk. Broxton would replace him. I think this could be a year when many changes could happen at closer. There's many old, and or injury risks. And there's some who have had pretty bad numbers. Percival, Borowski, Jones come to mind.
I agree that I don't think Gregg will lose his job due to ineffectiveness. He was solid last year and is on a low pressure team in the National League, which is pretty much Matt Capps all over it. Maybe not the same stuff, but I think Gregg will get a fine amount of saves before he is rumored to be dealt mid-season.
Gagne is looking like this year's Lidge where he'll be somewhat effective, then demoted until he gets his head straight, then returned to the closer's role. The guy was paid a ton so I can't imagine he's on too short of a leash.
Broxton should be owned in all leagues not only due to Saito's aches and pains, but also just because of how he can help all teams.
Gagne and Wood will be good if they can stay healthy. The same can be said for Soriano, Street, Ryan, and many others.
Based on performance, I think Lyon has to watch out for Pena, even Cruz, not Qualls.
Gregg should be safe until some of their hard throwing youngsters return or perform but he has guys like Lindstrom, Owens, Sanchez, Johnson, Martinez, Bowyer, Tankersley, & Kensing could all potentially close. Tank has the most potential of all of those guys closing.
Sherrill has never closed and might be pressed by Hoey, Cabrera, or possibly a converted starter.
The Rangers closers gig is anything but in cement, it wouldn't be surprising to see Fukumori or Benoit get it and run with it because Wilson is not that good an EG is never healthy and even when he is he's not the same pitcher he once was. Fuku was brought in for a reason and closed in Japan and Benoit has better stuff than 90% of the league.
I personally think BoRo is keeping Kobayashi's spot warm as the teams closer. He would not of signed with the Indians if closing was not in his future.
Hopefully, Todd Jones can hold on to the closers spot long enough for Zumaya to get healthy.
Chad Cordero will smartly be dealt if Washington cannot contend.
Who knows what Percy will do in TB, he's looked bad of late and alreayd came out of retirement once. Salas, Orvella, or one of the young stud arms in the minors could step up.
sansav wrote:OK, I know that this topic is pretty close to the "Closer Thread", but I want to discuss who the 1st closers will be to lose thier jobs (either to ineffectiveness or injury) and probable replacements:
Gregg Out (inefectiveness) Tankersly or Lindstrom IN - who do you think is the next in line
Lyon Out (injury or ineffectiveness, take your pick) Pena or Qualls IN - who do you think is the next in line
Gagne OUT (I think due to injury) Turnbow IN
i dont think gregg should be at the top of this in the least. cj wilson, brian wilson, percival, wood, borowski, are all way more likely to lose their jobs imo first.
I dont think Brian Wilson is in danger of losing his job anytime soon because the Giants will not be contending and they dont have any better options. Wilson will be on a very long leash. If he can keep his walks down he can be very good actually. His saves total wont be high but he shouldnt be one of the first closers to lose their jobs.