I hear some people (ESPN's draft kit most notably) talking about him as a great get as a #4 OF... someone who is being overlooked. Others say that the move to San Fran, with it's pitcher's park and sorry offense, will kill his numbers. What do you think is closer to the truth?
not much. i noticed he falls quite a bit in the drafts i've participated in compared to his ADP.
if you have him, don't expect anything close to last year.
he moves from citizens bank to pac bell, hit amongst rollins, howard, utley, etc. to now bengie molina and... ray durham? he probably was also playing for a fat contract last year. i'd stay away.
San Fran manager says he's going to run him more. Rowand was quoted as saying he thinks he can get 25 SB this year. But I agree- the park and the line up hurt him.
I also see him as a pretty decent pick. His power numbers won't be anywhere close, like 27 HRs, and probably won't be scoring as many runs since he'll be hitting cleanup/fifth with little to drive him in. However, I still see some value as a fourth or fifth OF.
I think something like 75/18/85/15 .285 is reasonable. Not overwhelming, but serviceable in relation to where I've been seeing him go in drafts.
The last two posts pretty much sum up my thinking too. I think he has definate value as a #4. No, I dont expect last year's numbers, but I think the numbers will be better than average for that spot, and the way he is being left behind in the drafts, I think he is a bargin if you get him late.