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Drafting players on the same team

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Re: Drafting players on the same team

Postby OneLoveBoomer » Thu Mar 20, 2008 12:20 am

A big reason I don't like having more than two from 1 team is PPD's in H2H. Remember Cleveland last year at the beginning of the season?

Hope you didn't have Hafner, Sizemore, and VMart! :-b

2 is okay. Having Berkman and CLee is a good time.
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Re: Drafting players on the same team

Postby Ernie Whitt » Thu Mar 20, 2008 12:41 am

Matthias wrote:I think you're forming an emotional attachment to, "your" runs. If everything else is equal, then everything else is equal. It doesn't matter if, "your" Mike Lowell knocks in, "your" David Ortiz or if, "someone else's" Mike Lowell knocks in, "your" David Ortiz while, across the country, "your" Garrett Atkins knocks in Tulo. It's just stats.

As GTWMA alluded to, there are some teams you want to get more of their players just because their numbers project better. Yankees, Red Sox, Tigers... players from all these teams should be fine but that's just because they project better, not because you want to corner the market.

In other words, it's just tea leaves, man. Stop looking for some pattern.


Maybe it's a bit of an emotional attachment, but I think I'm just playing the odds for an advantage. How big that advantage is, I don't know. Or maybe I'm just drinking my own Kool-Aid.

But let's say you've drafted Ortiz at 1B.

Time comes around to draft a 3B and you've got Lowell, Blalock, and Zimmerman available to you. All things being equal (ie, injuries, playing time, surprise breakouts or slumps), I would say you could expect them to have very similar stats, especially in RBIs, around 90 each give or take.

If you draft Lowell, you'll get 90 RBIs and you'll get the added bonus of the statistical probability that Ortiz will be on base a good chunk of the time Lowell is knocking in those runs. You'll get runs added in your column rather than your opponents' runs column.

If you draft Blalock or Zimmerman you'll get the same 90 RBIs, but you'll be giving runs away to your opponents because Blalock and Zimmerman are driving in players that aren't on your team.

To me, Lowell is the easy choice. It just makes statistical sense.
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Re: Drafting players on the same team

Postby Ernie Whitt » Thu Mar 20, 2008 12:43 am

OneLoveBoomer wrote:A big reason I don't like having more than two from 1 team is PPD's in H2H. Remember Cleveland last year at the beginning of the season?

Hope you didn't have Hafner, Sizemore, and VMart! :-b

2 is okay. Having Berkman and CLee is a good time.


Like I said, this strategy would be virtual suicide in H2H.
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Re: Drafting players on the same team

Postby Matthias » Thu Mar 20, 2008 12:58 am

Ernie Whitt wrote:
Matthias wrote:I think you're forming an emotional attachment to, "your" runs. If everything else is equal, then everything else is equal. It doesn't matter if, "your" Mike Lowell knocks in, "your" David Ortiz or if, "someone else's" Mike Lowell knocks in, "your" David Ortiz while, across the country, "your" Garrett Atkins knocks in Tulo. It's just stats.

As GTWMA alluded to, there are some teams you want to get more of their players just because their numbers project better. Yankees, Red Sox, Tigers... players from all these teams should be fine but that's just because they project better, not because you want to corner the market.

In other words, it's just tea leaves, man. Stop looking for some pattern.


Maybe it's a bit of an emotional attachment, but I think I'm just playing the odds for an advantage. How big that advantage is, I don't know. Or maybe I'm just drinking my own Kool-Aid.

But let's say you've drafted Ortiz at 1B.

Time comes around to draft a 3B and you've got Lowell, Blalock, and Zimmerman available to you. All things being equal (ie, injuries, playing time, surprise breakouts or slumps), I would say you could expect them to have very similar stats, especially in RBIs, around 90 each give or take.

If you draft Lowell, you'll get 90 RBIs and you'll get the added bonus of the statistical probability that Ortiz will be on base a good chunk of the time Lowell is knocking in those runs. You'll get runs added in your column rather than your opponents' runs column.

If you draft Blalock or Zimmerman you'll get the same 90 RBIs, but you'll be giving runs away to your opponents because Blalock and Zimmerman are driving in players that aren't on your team.

To me, Lowell is the easy choice. It just makes statistical sense.

No: what you're talking about is not statistics. If the projections are the same the projections are the same. There's no sense in which you're, "giving runs away to your opponent." They're going to score them no matter what you do. So the only thing you can do is draft the players who you personally project to do the best.

The only thing statistical that you're talking about involves something else called covariance, basically that if you draft the entire Red Sox roster and they have a terrible year, then your fantasy team is going to do terrible. If they do great, you'll do great. But this isn't something you necessarily want to buy into... it's just as possible that a team performs under projections as it is that it over performs. That's how you come up with projections in the first place.

What you're talking about does have some small application in fantasy football... to see something I wrote about it 2+ yrs ago, check out here. But for drafting players for baseball, don't worry about it.
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Re: Drafting players on the same team

Postby Ernie Whitt » Thu Mar 20, 2008 12:59 am

Ender wrote:This is the goofiest thing I've read in a while. one player getting R/RBI doesn't make another player from the same team worth more to your team. If guys bat in a favorable lineup they get better stats period, makes no difference if one is already on your team and you shouldn't target two guys on the same team just because of it.


While it seems a little unorthodox, it make statistical sense, to me at least.

While everyone else in your league is gaining ground in RBIs while losing ground in Runs (ie you get an RBI when your player drives in a player on your opponent's team) or gaining ground in Runs while losing ground in RBIs (ie your player scored when he is driven in by player on your opponent's team) you're gaining ground in both Runs and RBIs by having both players that scored the run and the RBI.

Come on people, there's tons of fantasy baseball veterans in here, I can't be the only one who sees the possible value here.
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Re: Drafting players on the same team

Postby Ernie Whitt » Thu Mar 20, 2008 1:23 am

Matthias wrote:
Ernie Whitt wrote:
Matthias wrote:I think you're forming an emotional attachment to, "your" runs. If everything else is equal, then everything else is equal. It doesn't matter if, "your" Mike Lowell knocks in, "your" David Ortiz or if, "someone else's" Mike Lowell knocks in, "your" David Ortiz while, across the country, "your" Garrett Atkins knocks in Tulo. It's just stats.

As GTWMA alluded to, there are some teams you want to get more of their players just because their numbers project better. Yankees, Red Sox, Tigers... players from all these teams should be fine but that's just because they project better, not because you want to corner the market.

In other words, it's just tea leaves, man. Stop looking for some pattern.


Maybe it's a bit of an emotional attachment, but I think I'm just playing the odds for an advantage. How big that advantage is, I don't know. Or maybe I'm just drinking my own Kool-Aid.

But let's say you've drafted Ortiz at 1B.

Time comes around to draft a 3B and you've got Lowell, Blalock, and Zimmerman available to you. All things being equal (ie, injuries, playing time, surprise breakouts or slumps), I would say you could expect them to have very similar stats, especially in RBIs, around 90 each give or take.

If you draft Lowell, you'll get 90 RBIs and you'll get the added bonus of the statistical probability that Ortiz will be on base a good chunk of the time Lowell is knocking in those runs. You'll get runs added in your column rather than your opponents' runs column.

If you draft Blalock or Zimmerman you'll get the same 90 RBIs, but you'll be giving runs away to your opponents because Blalock and Zimmerman are driving in players that aren't on your team.

To me, Lowell is the easy choice. It just makes statistical sense.

No: what you're talking about is not statistics. If the projections are the same the projections are the same. There's no sense in which you're, "giving runs away to your opponent." They're going to score them no matter what you do. So the only thing you can do is draft the players who you personally project to do the best.

The only thing statistical that you're talking about involves something else called covariance, basically that if you draft the entire Red Sox roster and they have a terrible year, then your fantasy team is going to do terrible. If they do great, you'll do great. But this isn't something you necessarily want to buy into... it's just as possible that a team performs under projections as it is that it over performs. That's how you come up with projections in the first place.

What you're talking about does have some small application in fantasy football... to see something I wrote about it 2+ yrs ago, check out here. But for drafting players for baseball, don't worry about it.


I'll be honest, I may be out to lunch here. I guess after 12 years of fantasy baseball I'm looking for that slight edge that no one has really considered before.

I think I get what you're saying. Are you saying that if you pick the 3-4 hitters on the same team and (hypothetically) the #3 hitter scores 100 runs, all of which were provided by the #4 hitter's 100 RBI's, that just means 100 runs and 100 RBIs in your columns and provides no advantage over your opponents? Essentially those 100 Runs and 100 RBIs could have just as well come from anywhere?
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Re: Drafting players on the same team

Postby Matthias » Thu Mar 20, 2008 1:35 am

Ernie Whitt wrote:\I'll be honest, I may be out to lunch here. I guess after 12 years of fantasy baseball I'm looking for that slight edge that no one has really considered before.

I think I get what you're saying. Are you saying that if you pick the 3-4 hitters on the same team and (hypothetically) the #3 hitter scores 100 runs, all of which were provided by the #4 hitter's 100 RBI's, that just means 100 runs and 100 RBIs in your columns and provides no advantage over your opponents? Essentially those 100 Runs and 100 RBIs could have just as well come from anywhere?

Exactly.
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Re: Drafting players on the same team

Postby BitterDodgerFan » Thu Mar 20, 2008 1:44 am

the only problem with drafting players from same team is if you have too many, plugging in other players on the days those players get off might be a little bit tougher. but i think difference isn't big enough to really worry about.
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Re: Drafting players on the same team

Postby BJSFAN123 » Thu Mar 20, 2008 2:06 am

I had Howard + Rollins last season, and it was just so awesome when I would come home and see Philly scored 10+ runs..knowing I probably did awesome :-B (H2H league)
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Re: Drafting players on the same team

Postby Ernie Whitt » Thu Mar 20, 2008 8:26 am

Matthias wrote:
Ernie Whitt wrote:\I'll be honest, I may be out to lunch here. I guess after 12 years of fantasy baseball I'm looking for that slight edge that no one has really considered before.

I think I get what you're saying. Are you saying that if you pick the 3-4 hitters on the same team and (hypothetically) the #3 hitter scores 100 runs, all of which were provided by the #4 hitter's 100 RBI's, that just means 100 runs and 100 RBIs in your columns and provides no advantage over your opponents? Essentially those 100 Runs and 100 RBIs could have just as well come from anywhere?

Exactly.


Fair enough. I guess I'm just having trouble wrapping my head around the fact that something that appears to be a clearly obvious advantage when looked at in the instance of a single run created (you get the run and the RBI instead of you getting the run while one of your opponents gets the RBI) actually has no impact on the grand scheme of things in the final standings.

Oh well, back to the drawing board.
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