Long time lurker here, looking for advice on a strategy I might try in standard 5x5 roto this year.
My thinking is that for hitters, there are 2 stats - R and RBI - that are dependent on other players in the lineup in order for your fantasy players to rack up R and RBI. For example, in order for your player to score a run, another player has to get an RBI and vice versa. Now it's nice to get that run, but one of your opponents just racked up an RBI (unless, of course, the player who got the RBI was undrafted or on the bench that day).
So I'm thinking it might be a viable strategy to draft players on the same team, preferably who hit close to each other in the lineup. That way, you can "horde" a majority of the stats those players produce.
Obviously you wouldn't want to draft a below average player just because he plays on the same team as your other players when there is a superior player at that position available. But, if you can choose between to relatively similar players to draft, then you would choose the player that plays for same team that the majority of your players play for.
There are many potential flaws with this strategy (missing out on a key player in the lineup being the biggest), and I wouldn't want to go into the draft with this as a firm, inflexible plan. But if it happened to work out so that your could realistically draft 5-6 out of 9 (8 in the NL) starting players on a single team, you might have an edge on your opponents.
I think this is a decent strategy, but mostly if you are committed to keeping those players for a while. If a team only scores 1 or 2 runs that day, there is a good chance your taking nothing home; plus if the team of your players go on a cold streak or start losing alot you could go a week or so with some really rough stats.
Depends on how many guys on the same team we are talking about. Got a guy in my league who drafted:
Jeter; Cano; Matsui; and Damon. I think this might hurt him more than help.
I got Holliday, Helton, and Tavarez, but in general I don't like having guys on the same teams as long as it's prudent to avoid it, maybe it's a psychological thing but I just feel like it diversifies my risk a little to have my guys facing different pitchers each day.
In a roto it probably doesn't make any difference over the course of the season, but in a H2H it could be a boom or bust strategy.
I have no problem taking multiple players on a high scoring offense. The #9 hitter on the Yankees or Tigers is likely to have as good an opportunity for runs and rbis as the #6 hitter on a lousy team like SF or Pitt.
"I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to chase it."
In poker terms (or general statistics), I'd call this adding "variance" to your lineup.
Putting all your eggs in one basket doesn't particularly increase or decrease your chances of success in the long-term. In the end of the season two players slated for rbi/run totals of 100/95 and 95/100 are both going to get what they get, regardless of what team they're on or how they relate to eachother.
But, in the short-term (say, for instance, in a week), this could have HUGE consequences on your team. One week they could have a good schedule against some weak pitchers and really go off, both getting 10/10 and solidifying your win for the week. While the next week they could be scheduled against three of the toughest pitchers in the game and have two days off, and rack up a whopping total of 1/1 each, essentially killing your team's chances of winning those categories.
In roto leagues, this has absolutely no impact. The projected statistics of one player have very little to do with the projections of another player (on your roster... it may impact the projections to start with).
In H2H leagues, having one instance of this isn't a big deal, but having three or four "sets" of these guys could make your team very unpredictable. If there's one thing that I like in my H2H teams, it's an even keel. It helps lineup-wise to know what stats you're going to be needing each week in order to compete against certain opponents. Not knowing where you stand going into the week (either because of your own variance or your opponent's) is frustrating, and could negatively impact your lineups for the week if you choose incorrectly.
In the end, unless you built a team specifically around this, I don't think you'd notice much of a difference. Having five or six players from one team, or having several (4+) sets of two players from select teams would definitely make a noticeable difference. You'd probably end up near the same in the end, because stats are so random anyway, but I'd bet you could put a team together that would have some ridiculous hot-and-cold streaks throughout the season.
MTUCache wrote:In poker terms (or general statistics), I'd call this adding "variance" to your lineup.
Putting all your eggs in one basket doesn't particularly increase or decrease your chances of success in the long-term. In the end of the season two players slated for rbi/run totals of 100/95 and 95/100 are both going to get what they get, regardless of what team they're on or how they relate to eachother.
But, in the short-term (say, for instance, in a week), this could have HUGE consequences on your team. One week they could have a good schedule against some weak pitchers and really go off, both getting 10/10 and solidifying your win for the week. While the next week they could be scheduled against three of the toughest pitchers in the game and have two days off, and rack up a whopping total of 1/1 each, essentially killing your team's chances of winning those categories.
In roto leagues, this has absolutely no impact. The projected statistics of one player have very little to do with the projections of another player (on your roster... it may impact the projections to start with).
In H2H leagues, having one instance of this isn't a big deal, but having three or four "sets" of these guys could make your team very unpredictable. If there's one thing that I like in my H2H teams, it's an even keel. It helps lineup-wise to know what stats you're going to be needing each week in order to compete against certain opponents. Not knowing where you stand going into the week (either because of your own variance or your opponent's) is frustrating, and could negatively impact your lineups for the week if you choose incorrectly.
In the end, unless you built a team specifically around this, I don't think you'd notice much of a difference. Having five or six players from one team, or having several (4+) sets of two players from select teams would definitely make a noticeable difference. You'd probably end up near the same in the end, because stats are so random anyway, but I'd bet you could put a team together that would have some ridiculous hot-and-cold streaks throughout the season.
I would never try this in H2H. A team can have a bad week and you're done. Too many eggs in one basket, as you say. I would only try this in roto.
And you're right, players are going to get what they're going to get no matter what team they're on.
But I disagree with what you said about roto. I think it has a huge impact on roto leagues. Runs and RBIs are almost completely dependent on other players. If no one's on base, the only way you can get an RBI is by knocking one out of the park. If you're on base, the only way you can score a run is by having someone hit you in (except for rare occasions like balks/stealing home).
I'm looking at this from a cost/benefit analysis perspective. When you get an RBI, for example, that's great, you increase your team's RBI total. But, you either lose a bit in lead or the leader pulls ahead in Runs if you do not have the player who scored the run. But if you have the player who scored the run, then it's win/win.
Look at it this way:
It's round 8 of the draft. You already have 4 players from Team A. You need a 1B. There are 3 1B available with comparable stats from Teams A, B and C.
With all other things being equal, doesn't it make sense to draft the 1B from Team A over B and C?
I think you're forming an emotional attachment to, "your" runs. If everything else is equal, then everything else is equal. It doesn't matter if, "your" Mike Lowell knocks in, "your" David Ortiz or if, "someone else's" Mike Lowell knocks in, "your" David Ortiz while, across the country, "your" Garrett Atkins knocks in Tulo. It's just stats.
As GTWMA alluded to, there are some teams you want to get more of their players just because their numbers project better. Yankees, Red Sox, Tigers... players from all these teams should be fine but that's just because they project better, not because you want to corner the market.
In other words, it's just tea leaves, man. Stop looking for some pattern.
0-3 to 4-3. Worst choke in the history of baseball. Enough said.
This is the goofiest thing I've read in a while. one player getting R/RBI doesn't make another player from the same team worth more to your team. If guys bat in a favorable lineup they get better stats period, makes no difference if one is already on your team and you shouldn't target two guys on the same team just because of it.
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by Ernie Whitt » Wed Mar 19, 2008 6:29 pm 
