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Your Draft Philosophy

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Re: Your Draft Philosophy

Postby Bloody Sox » Wed Mar 19, 2008 5:20 pm

Russell James wrote:Last year I was able to steal Markakis and Polanco from a guy for Adam Dunn. Dunn's 40 HRs can demand a high price, while Markakis and Polanco are just guys who hit around .300 and give me multiple stats. Markakis was one of my more consistent offensive players last year. Most people criticized me for making that trade, yet it fit perfectly into chemistry of my team.

First: Your fantasy baseball team does not have "chemistry".
Second: I don't think you stole Markakis and Polanco for Dunn - not last year. Dunn hit many more HRs than Markakis+Polanco to make up for his low average, and a free agent 2B like Aaron Hill was last year wasn't much of a dropoff from Polanco.
Third: Markakis was no where near consistent last year - look at his monthly splits for power, speed, and average - they were all over the place. No speed early, no power in the middle of the year, tons of power at the end.
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Re: Your Draft Philosophy

Postby Matthias » Wed Mar 19, 2008 5:30 pm

Bloody Sox wrote:
Russell James wrote:Last year I was able to steal Markakis and Polanco from a guy for Adam Dunn. Dunn's 40 HRs can demand a high price, while Markakis and Polanco are just guys who hit around .300 and give me multiple stats. Markakis was one of my more consistent offensive players last year. Most people criticized me for making that trade, yet it fit perfectly into chemistry of my team.

First: Your fantasy baseball team does not have "chemistry".
Second: I don't think you stole Markakis and Polanco for Dunn - not last year. Dunn hit many more HRs than Markakis+Polanco to make up for his low average, and a free agent 2B like Aaron Hill was last year wasn't much of a dropoff from Polanco.
Third: Markakis was no where near consistent last year - look at his monthly splits for power, speed, and average - they were all over the place. No speed early, no power in the middle of the year, tons of power at the end.

Teams do have, "chemistry" ... some teams have a glut of SBs and need HRs, some teams have a great AVG but need RBIs, some teams have lots of RBIs but need SBs. So if you can balance those stats out you have good team, "chemistry".
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Re: Your Draft Philosophy

Postby knapplc » Wed Mar 19, 2008 8:56 pm

A far better name for that would be "balance," not "chemistry." Calling that "chemistry" is like calling "love," a "harmony."

Let's not stretch words to their nth meaning to try and make a point. :-b
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Re: Your Draft Philosophy

Postby J35J » Wed Mar 19, 2008 9:03 pm

Sounds like the OP is in need of some good competition....if you stick around til next year you could be a solid candidate for the Cafeholics Challenge League, if your up for it anyway?!! ;-D }:-)
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Re: Your Draft Philosophy

Postby Russell James » Thu Mar 20, 2008 9:30 am

Bronx,

You are too much into the trading based on ADP. Player values change from team to team. A team that drafted piss poor pitching but a great offense will gladly part with a power bat for a power arm.

If you trade Harang for the average 8th round pick then you are flat out crazy. Usually I wait a couple weeks into the season because teams need to feel how weak they are in pitching before they pay premium for it, but this year the situation worked out well because the guy needed pitching real bad. Plus he has a stacked offense so losing Ordonez won't hurt him too much. It was a win/win trade for both of us.

Bloody,

Teams do have "chemistry" if you prefer to call it balance then call it that, I prefer the word chemistry. I build a team a certain way and there are certain players who absolutely decimate it. Dunn is one of those players. The past years I draft him because his HRs gives me such high trade value. I haven't drafted him this year because Markakis is going in the same round.

I have just started playing auction leagues. This is the first year I have done it for baseball and the draft was way too long. The total draft time was close to 6 hours...what a nightmare. I'm still honing my strategy in auction leagues. Admittedly I am still green when it comes to that. I like my team in that league though.
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Re: Your Draft Philosophy

Postby josebach » Thu Mar 20, 2008 9:50 am

Chemistry is what real teams have and describes how well guys play together or get along. Balance is what fantasy teams have.


I personally draft players I want on my team. That's what I do all of the research for. Sure I understand picking up a player you don't really need because it's a steal, but drafting players for the purpose of trading them just doesn't make sense to me. The control you have over how well your fantasy team does is limited as it is, why further weaken that control by having to factor in the willingness of other owners to make trades into the scneario?
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Re: Your Draft Philosophy

Postby BronXBombers51 » Thu Mar 20, 2008 12:58 pm

Russell James wrote:Bronx,

You are too much into the trading based on ADP. Player values change from team to team. A team that drafted piss poor pitching but a great offense will gladly part with a power bat for a power arm.

If you trade Harang for the average 8th round pick then you are flat out crazy. Usually I wait a couple weeks into the season because teams need to feel how weak they are in pitching before they pay premium for it, but this year the situation worked out well because the guy needed pitching real bad. Plus he has a stacked offense so losing Ordonez won't hurt him too much. It was a win/win trade for both of us.


No, I'm into trading based on value. There's a reason why that hitter went in the 2nd round, and a reason why Harang went in the 8th. Obviously the hitter commands more value than Harang, otherwise he wouldn't have went that high (or Harang wouldn't have went that low.) Even if I was loaded on hitting, there's not a chance I would trade my 2nd round pick for a guy who went 6-8 rounds later...unless we were WELL into the season and the pitcher had proven that he out-earned his draft position.

Obviously player value changes from team to team based on needs, but it does not (or should not) change that drastically, especially in a short-time period. If you're talking about trading Harang for Ordonez in June, fine. But if you're talking about someone making a deal like that in March or April, I think it's crazy. Trading a 2nd round caliber player for an 8th round caliber player in March is a downgrade in value, no matter how you slice it.

Maybe it "didn't hurt him too much" because he had a "stacked offense," but it's clear that he sold extremely low on his 2nd-round pick. I don't care how stacked my hitting is or how poor my pitching is, I'm not going to trade Ryan Howard for Dice-K simply because I need a pitcher. It's a terrible trade in terms of value. Maybe it won't "hurt me too bad" because my offense is great, but that doesn't mean it's a smart trade.
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Re: Your Draft Philosophy

Postby Ender » Thu Mar 20, 2008 1:01 pm

Pitching is a high risk position and as the season goes on the pitchers who have stayed healthy gain in value. This isn't a flaw in peoples thinking it is just the truth. By the all star break around 25% of the top end starters will be injured or ineffective and will make the rest of them more valuable.
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Re: Your Draft Philosophy

Postby The Artful Dodger » Thu Mar 20, 2008 2:00 pm

My draft philosophy is that I really don't have any, but I do live off a few simple rules of thumb:

1) Pay attention to the first 6 rounds because they dictate the rest of your draft. Ideally, I want 4 or 5 hitters, 1 or 2 SP, and if the value is right, a top closer perhaps. You will then need to fill in your roster, keeping in mind you need to balance position utility with potential.

2) Draft for the best value. The worse you can do is build depth and you actually could have some valuable trade chips in your hands. This rings truest the first 8-9 rounds. Be conservative but...

3)...know when to take a risk. Never read too much into ADP because if you do, you could find yourself clinging onto it as if it's a bible. It's a good guide to see wherever everyone's being drafted, but it's never a good indicator on what value is...until after the fact, as in after the season. No one wins leagues in hindsight. So, reaching for Josh Hamilton in the 9th round could be a good thing for you with a Spring that's inflated your value, but keep in mind you still need to stay conservative to a point. That said...

4)...always do your homework, especially trends in things like BABIP, FB%, LD%, and improvements in K/BB, K/9. If Jeff Francoeur fell to you in the 9th and you had still taken Josh Hamilton, this is something you'll have to live with if it pans out for you or it doesn't. Having your vital trends down pat, knowing when to be conservative and when to take a risk, being flexible in another word, will be crucial in you seeking out the best value no matter where you draft.

As for pitching, yes, in some ways, it's underrated, but that's mainly because pitching is just so deep. In my last draft, I had seen Erik Bedard drop to me with a 5th round pick and yet I had taken Troy Tulowitzki. With that in mind, I still assembled a Harang/Lincecum/Dice K with my 7-8-9 picks. Now, what this tells me is that I very well could be gaining potential bargains out of the likes of Harang, Lincecum, and Matsuzaka that Bedard could otherwise provide. All four of these pitchers carry varying risks, mind you, and if Bedard vastly outproduces Harang, Lincecum, and Dice K, well then, it just tells you that Bedard was more valuable as much a reason as Harang, Lincecum, and Dice K were less valuable. That said, I had taken Tulowitzki over Bedard still because SS is quite scarce and he has the best upside of all remaining SS to step up as an elite class SS. The fact of the matter is that it's easier to replace a pitcher's stats because of the depth and upside of pitchers that can be taken later, than it is to replace a top hitter's stats.
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