No doubt that there are some quality guys available in the middle rounds. Heck, last year Prince Fielder went in round 20.
I'm just saying that if my 11th round pick doesn't hit, then it won't hurt my team much. An 11th round flop is not a 1st or 2nd round flop, yet people act like it is. I don't believe that you should be afraid to take a risk in the 11th round.
Also it just said that Lugo was going to Japan. Has it already been established that Ellsbury won't be batting leadoff? I thought I read that he pretty much had that position locked up.
If Lugo is batting leadoff then I do not understand what the Sox are doing. Lugo was struggling to stay above .200 last season.
Russell James wrote:No doubt that there are some quality guys available in the middle rounds. Heck, last year Prince Fielder went in round 20.
I'm just saying that if my 11th round pick doesn't hit, then it won't hurt my team much. An 11th round flop is not a 1st or 2nd round flop, yet people act like it is. I don't believe that you should be afraid to take a risk in the 11th round.
Leagues are won in the middle rounds. Making quality picks when all the superstars are off the board is what separates your team from the pack. Drafting guys like Santana and Zambrano in the middle rounds of 2004 is what put my team over the top that year. As you just said, snagging a guy like Prince Fielder in the middle rounds last year gave you 1st round value.
While Jacoby busting as an 11th rounder won't necessarily kill your chances, it certainly won't help them....not when there are other teams making smarter, less risky/higher potential picks. You shouldn't ease up just because it's the 11th round. Make good picks. Taking risks is perfectly fine, and in most cases, is required. But only take them when it's necessary. Taking Ellsbury in the 11th is not a necessary risk IMO. There are better picks to be made.
There is zero chance that Lugo will lead off for the Red Sox, barring a lot of weird things happening, IMO. They will either go Jacoby-Pedroia, Jacoby-Youkilis, or Pedroia-Youkilis at the top of the lineup.
"The government cannot give to anyone anything that it does not first take from someone else"
11th rounders can't hurt your team, unless you do a poor job drafting in rounds 1 - 10.
You would have considered Prince Fielder a risk in round 11 last year. He was not proven like a Paul Konerko was. Hindsight is 20/20 on that one. Most people did not anticipate Victorino having the kind of year he had last year either.
You and I have a different draft philosophy that would I think would make an interesting discussion somewhere else. I will start a topic about it.
Russell James wrote: 11th rounders can't hurt your team, unless you do a poor job drafting in rounds 1 - 10.
Yes they can.
If you're drafting Ellsbury in the 11th and he busts, and I'm drafting guys with a better chance to produce, that puts you at a disadvantage, and essentially weakens your team. Obviously it doesn't hold as much weight as it would if the same thing happened in the 1st or 2nd round, but again, anyone can pick superstars for the first 5 rounds and have a decent-looking team.
The difference between a championship team and a middle-of-the-pack team, for the most part, rests in the middle rounds of a draft...when all the "name" players are gone and you have to decipher who the big breakout candidate of the year will be.
If I'm making better picks than you in the middle rounds, then my team has a greater chance of succeeding. If you're putting yourself in a worse position to succeed, then yes, your team is being hurt by your picks.
Jacoby with HR numbers 2 and 3 tonight here on April 22. He's also now scored 18 runs, hit 9 RBIs and stolen 8 bags. All this in only 67 plate appearances (51 ABs, 13 BBs), as he had been semi-platooning with Coco Crisp. Most regulars are in the 85-95 range for PA.
Even at his current platoon rate, which is very unlikely to continue, he's projected out to roughly: 425 PA, 130 Runs, 60 SB, 23 HRs, 65 RBIs, .295 BA, 95 BBs.
He won't be able to keep up his current rate of performance, but at the same time he's likely to end up with closer to 600 PA so in the end he might not be that far off a lot of those numbers. Obviously he's unlikely to hit more than 10-15 HRs, but all the other numbers are attainable.
In the preseason, I said I thought he had a good shot at 40 SBs and 120 runs and 10 HRs with a .300+ average. So far, so good.
"The government cannot give to anyone anything that it does not first take from someone else"
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by Russell James » Wed Mar 19, 2008 2:19 pm 
