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Boston or NY- stronger pitching staff?

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Postby ajgnydc722 » Fri Feb 20, 2004 10:26 am

mikcou wrote:
DGroundhog wrote:I think steve made a good point comparing them the way he did. I don't completely agree with the final tally, but there is certainly a lot of 'washes' coming from Brooklyn.

It ssemed quite unbiased to me.


It was a good way of comparing the pitchers. However is schilling really injury prone? Does one season of odd injuries make him injury prone?


Well he is 38 or 39, moving to a new league (we all know he's a preperation freak with hitters), and into a ballpark that I believe he has struggled with in the past...if somebody could bring up his career stats at fenway maybe they could prove me wrong but just going off of the top of my head. I honestly do not think he will be a dominant pitcher this year and you might kill me for saying it now, but come October I believe I will be right.

Anyways...
Maddux was not his dominating self last season and in fact he looked like a mediocre pitcher. That leave Prior and Wood which is a deadly combo but are they the best staff? I'd have to say no. I think OVERALL Boston, New York, and Oakland have better staffs but if Maddux and the youngsters like Clement can prove they are dominant pitchers again then the Cubs will be hard to beat.
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Postby Transmogrifier » Fri Feb 20, 2004 10:35 am

Aj, even for a Yankee fan, you are quite the homer. Jeesh. What a prediction. Definitely stay away from Schilling in drafts, and draft Brown earlier.

Anyway, how about some Baseball Prospectus analysis? Saying Schilling-Brown is a wash is an absolute joke.


Arms Race: The Yankees offense will need to be good, because PECOTA's 2004 weighted-mean forecasts rank the Boston staff as first in the American League in expected VORP. Not by a little, by a lot:
Team VORP
BOS 383.8
NYA 284.9
TOR 217.4
OAK 292.2
CHA 195.3

The top four pitchers in the American League, per PECOTA, are all Yankees and Sox. PECOTA predicts dominant seasons from Pedro Martinez and Schilling, and also places Derek Lowe, Tim Wakefield, and Foulke in the top 20. It's the tenth name on the list that will most surprise Sox fans:

Pitcher Team VORP
1. Martinez, Pedro BOS 70.0
2. Vazquez, Javier NYA 61.7
3. Mussina, Mike NYA 56.3
4. Schilling, Curt BOS 55.8
5. Halladay, Roy TOR 48.5
6. Hudson, Tim OAK 45.6
7. Loaiza, Esteban CHA 40.4
8. Brown, Kevin NYA 38.9
9. Colon, Bartolo ANA 37.8
10. Kim, Byung-Hyun BOS 36.9

Byung-Hyun Kim, largely viewed as a bust in Boston after his late-May acquisition and postseason meltdown, is a five-year big-league veteran, owner of a 3.24 career ERA (3.18 in Boston), and just 25 years old. PECOTA likes this combination of factors, predicting more 2004 value from Kim than from Mark Mulder, Roy Oswalt, Andy Pettitte, Greg Maddux, Barry Zito, Randy Johnson, or Roger Clemens.
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Postby Transmogrifier » Fri Feb 20, 2004 10:42 am

tlef316 wrote:Martinez vs Mussina- Moose is great, but you cant pick against Pedro if he is on his game

Schilling vs Vazquez- vaz has great potential, but schilling is schilling

Lowe vs Brown- you have to give brown the edge if they are both healthy. the yankees always hit lowe

Contreras vs Wakefield- Contreras could be better, but you have to take the proven guy, especially since the yanks dont hit him well

Kim vs Lieber- Lieber is coming off injury, but id take my little brother over kim against the yankees. his personal demons are too much for him

Id take quantill and gordon over timlin and williamson, but for arguments sake ill call it a push

Rivera vs Foulke- foulke is great, but there is no possible way to bet against rivera in the post season(Arizona WS the only exception) Rivera's performance in ALCS game 7 was amazing

Overall

Redsox-3
Yankees- 3
Push-1


This is quite a reasonable analysis, although I'd definitely pick Kim over Lieber... remember, he doesn't have to pitch against NY all the time! :-D
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Postby Sox FANatic001 » Fri Feb 20, 2004 10:44 am

Pedro Vs. Mussina- Pedro is Pedro. You can't and shouldn't bet against him. He has the edge against everyone (except maybe Prior). How can he not havce the edge here? Edge-Pedro

Schilling Vs. Vazquez- I rememner the days when everyone sung the praises or Schilling and RJ as the obvious top 2 in the MLB. Granted they are both older, and have undergone injuries, but I still wouldn't argue against them. Vazquez is a young pitcher with stud stuff. Still, I'll take the proven guy over the young new guy. Edge-Schilling

Lowe vs. Brown- First, we have to admit that Brown is frequently injured. Will he stay healthy this year? Who knows. Other oft-injured guys like Griffey haven't, but who really knows? Also, Lowe had an ERA in the 2's and a no-hitter two years ago. If he can do that again, he gets the edge here without a doubt. However, he probably can't do that again. He will be good, but I'll give the edge to Brown, if he stays healthy all season. Edge-Brown

Wakefield vs. Contreas- Another tough one to call. Wakefield is very streaky and depends upon the sucess of his knuckelball, which usually works, but sometimes floats. Contreas has hinted at being good, but hasn't preformed well enough long enough for me to put much faith in him. I would take Wake field here, but since I'm probably a bit biased, I'll say Even

Kim vs. Lieber- Another tough one to call. How will Lieber preform after surgery? What about Kim's emotional baggage? Kim is much younger though, and Kim is just entering his prime. I expect him to mature as pitcher and in attitude. I think he's very underrated and ready for a break out year. Edge- Kim

so its 3-1-1 Red Sox. I think the bullpen's are very close it TImlin/Embree/Williamson pitch like they did in the playoffs and Rivera stays healthy. I do think Foulke will be great and will be one of the best closers the next few years though


GO SOX!!![/b]
Lets Go patsox!

yay! sox win!!!
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Rest In Pain ;-)

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him and pokey
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Postby mikcou » Fri Feb 20, 2004 10:45 am

Transmogrifier wrote:Aj, even for a Yankee fan, you are quite the homer. Jeesh. What a prediction. Definitely stay away from Schilling in drafts, and draft Brown earlier.

Anyway, how about some Baseball Prospectus analysis? Saying Schilling-Brown is a wash is an absolute joke.


Arms Race: The Yankees offense will need to be good, because PECOTA's 2004 weighted-mean forecasts rank the Boston staff as first in the American League in expected VORP. Not by a little, by a lot:
Team VORP
BOS 383.8
NYA 284.9
TOR 217.4
OAK 292.2
CHA 195.3

The top four pitchers in the American League, per PECOTA, are all Yankees and Sox. PECOTA predicts dominant seasons from Pedro Martinez and Schilling, and also places Derek Lowe, Tim Wakefield, and Foulke in the top 20. It's the tenth name on the list that will most surprise Sox fans:

Pitcher Team VORP
1. Martinez, Pedro BOS 70.0
2. Vazquez, Javier NYA 61.7
3. Mussina, Mike NYA 56.3
4. Schilling, Curt BOS 55.8
5. Halladay, Roy TOR 48.5
6. Hudson, Tim OAK 45.6
7. Loaiza, Esteban CHA 40.4
8. Brown, Kevin NYA 38.9
9. Colon, Bartolo ANA 37.8
10. Kim, Byung-Hyun BOS 36.9

Byung-Hyun Kim, largely viewed as a bust in Boston after his late-May acquisition and postseason meltdown, is a five-year big-league veteran, owner of a 3.24 career ERA (3.18 in Boston), and just 25 years old. PECOTA likes this combination of factors, predicting more 2004 value from Kim than from Mark Mulder, Roy Oswalt, Andy Pettitte, Greg Maddux, Barry Zito, Randy Johnson, or Roger Clemens.


I think thats a joke too. Even though Schilling is old, Brown is old too and has had more injuries than him. Even when they were both healthy Schilling has produced more
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Postby Mookie4ever » Fri Feb 20, 2004 10:49 am

SoxFanatic, pretty good except that I would give the edge to Contreras over Wakefield because Contreras has a much higher ceiling.

With the huge questions surrounding both Kim and Leiber I don't know how you could pick either. That has to be a push.

2-2-1 but the Sox have the better bullpen.
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Postby Transmogrifier » Fri Feb 20, 2004 11:13 am

For the record, Schilling's career numbers at Fenway are not good. However, most of those starts were at the very begining of his career (remember, he came up with the Sox, then went to Baltimore, then to Philly).

Career at Fenway:

6 games, four starts, 1-2, 6.04 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, .304 BA.

His one recent start in Fenway (2002):

1 game started, 1 win, 7.1 innings, 2.45 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, .222 BA.


Take them for what they're worth.
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Postby ajgnydc722 » Fri Feb 20, 2004 11:26 am

Trans I think you see me as some egotistical Yankee fan who doesn't know what he's talking about. I assure you I'm not. I'm not saying don't draft Schilling and draft Brown early. I'm not saying that at all. I am not saying Schilling definately won't pitch like a stud. It's a prediction, a gut feeling. I still said I'd take Schilling didn't I? And I would. I just have a not good feeling about him. That's all. I think you have me all wrong. When it comes right down to it I think the Sox are still close to the Yanks even after the A-Rod deal. Many people seem to be writing them off but I'm as scared as any Yankee fan with all the new faces. I think it's going to be a good battle this year between both of our teams. Maybe I'm a little biased for my Yankees but many of my posts are as objective as can be.
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Postby ajgnydc722 » Fri Feb 20, 2004 11:29 am

And I didn't say Schilling-Brown was a wash. That wasn't me. I was the one who picked Schilling over Vazquez and Brown and said the Sox have the deadliest 1-2 punch in baseball.
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Postby blankman » Fri Feb 20, 2004 12:43 pm

Mookie4ever wrote:but the Sox have the better bullpen.


Why? :-?
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