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Postby LBJackal » Sun Feb 22, 2004 12:52 am

Erboes wrote:Man, guys, I'm sick as a dog and I don't even know if I can begin to answer all these questions. I got to first say that I am not responding anymore to you, Jackal, because you are just like one of those yap-yap dogs that never shut up. Let's forget about the money bet, how about I'll give you ten points and if you win I'll change my Cafe name to Rotoguyssuck. If I win you will change your name to mailto:Fluffy@Rotoguys.com. What say you?


Deal. And how about we pick the losers avatar for the entire offseason as well?

And I kept repeating the same things because you never addressed them. It's not the dollar values I'm protesting, it's your projections. It's almost as if you didn't even take last season's stats into account for anybody.

Any explanation for the Perez/Halladay situation? Here it is if you forgot:

LBJackal wrote:Perez and Halladay were equals 2 years ago. Then, Halladay improved a ton, and Perez's ERA, WHIP, and BAA jumped. And now you say Perez is going to be better than Halladay. What crazy algorithm did you make up for that projection, because I think you missed a negative sign somewhere.


And Walker twice as valuable as Sosa? Walker will be lucky to crack 100 games this year and you have him down for 500+ AB's and twice as valuable as Sosa. Any reason for Sosa's 28 point drop in BA after having their lineup improved? A downward trend is one thing, but he hit .278 last year which is right in line with his career BA.

No disrespect to you, because I know a lot of work went into this, but now that you have the template for a good site set up, next year you should be more reasonable with your projections. It seems like you pick and choose who will have good and bad seasons, and drastically change their projections either too high or too low, but in most cases too low. I'm sure I'm not the only person who thinks this way, as any person worth their salt can realize most of the projections don't factor in last seasons stats at all, but as Eminem put it "I got the balls to say it in font of y'all, and I don't gotta be false or sugar coated at all". People are thinking it, but they aren't saying it because they've seen how you react to people disagreeing with you.

So no hard feelings, we just have different views about pretty much everything. I'll go about my business and beat you in our league, and I won't rub it in too hard.

:-D
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Postby Erboes » Sun Feb 22, 2004 8:06 am

LBJackal wrote:
Erboes wrote:Man, guys, I'm sick as a dog and I don't even know if I can begin to answer all these questions. I got to first say that I am not responding anymore to you, Jackal, because you are just like one of those yap-yap dogs that never shut up. Let's forget about the money bet, how about I'll give you ten points and if you win I'll change my Cafe name to Rotoguyssuck. If I win you will change your name to mailto:Fluffy@Rotoguys.com. What say you?


Deal. And how about we pick the losers avatar for the entire offseason as well?

And I kept repeating the same things because you never addressed them. It's not the dollar values I'm protesting, it's your projections. It's almost as if you didn't even take last season's stats into account for anybody.

Any explanation for the Perez/Halladay situation? Here it is if you forgot:

LBJackal wrote:Perez and Halladay were equals 2 years ago. Then, Halladay improved a ton, and Perez's ERA, WHIP, and BAA jumped. And now you say Perez is going to be better than Halladay. What crazy algorithm did you make up for that projection, because I think you missed a negative sign somewhere.


And Walker twice as valuable as Sosa? Walker will be lucky to crack 100 games this year and you have him down for 500+ AB's and twice as valuable as Sosa. Any reason for Sosa's 28 point drop in BA after having their lineup improved? A downward trend is one thing, but he hit .278 last year which is right in line with his career BA.

No disrespect to you, because I know a lot of work went into this, but now that you have the template for a good site set up, next year you should be more reasonable with your projections. It seems like you pick and choose who will have good and bad seasons, and drastically change their projections either too high or too low, but in most cases too low. I'm sure I'm not the only person who thinks this way, as any person worth their salt can realize most of the projections don't factor in last seasons stats at all, but as Eminem put it "I got the balls to say it in font of y'all, and I don't gotta be false or sugar coated at all". People are thinking it, but they aren't saying it because they've seen how you react to people disagreeing with you.

So no hard feelings, we just have different views about pretty much everything. I'll go about my business and beat you in our league, and I won't rub it in too hard.

:-D


Sounds like a plan, Jackal.

I have answered your question about Sosa numerous times so I won't do it again. We shall see.
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Postby Erboes » Sun Feb 22, 2004 8:40 am

mkooljr1 wrote:
If you attack them because they're wrong you make yourself no better than Jackal. Projections can only be judged on whether they are pointing you in the right direction. If I say $17 for Sosa and he has a value of $26, then I am wrong but the intent of keeping you away from him would have proven correct because he did not approach the value most people were paying for him. If I have Walker for $30 but he reaches only $25 but yet you paid $18 for him I would be wrong but the intended bargain would have been obtained.


I agree 100%, but this is something that not many people understand. It's not whether the projection is perfectly accurate, but whether it led you to go the extra dollar or pick him up in the last round when no one else wants him.

And you said a couple times with Burroughs that I have no proof that Burroughs can hit 16 homers. In doing so, you used it as an excuse to attack all the projections.


Again, i have no problem projecting a player to approach numbers he never has seen before. However, in Burroughs' case, I'd like to see trends and statistical evidence of a power breakout. Show me an improving walk rate, doubles rate, batting eye, etc, and then i'd have no problem with the projection. Like others have mentioned, it does seem as if you are very inconsistent in what you use to base your projection on.

Last, i don't subscribe to Baseball HQ because i don't need to spend that much money to finish in the money. I only buy the Forecaster every year. I'm really curious to hear why you think Shandler's methods suck. First, no one ever said he was the best forecaster, and especially for hitters. What he IS known for is all his indicators and skill metrics that will help to see trends and come up with a projection. And also most notably in his pitcher projections that use hit and strand rates to remove luck from a pitcher's era, so we have a better idea of a pitcher's true skill. So again, please tell me why you think his methods suck.


I answered your questions, Mkool, but was advised to delete it.
Last edited by Erboes on Sun Feb 22, 2004 1:43 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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Postby HOOTIE » Sun Feb 22, 2004 8:47 am

ERBOES and TF, i got to your home page, looks nice. But when i went to the features, it wouldn't load? Maybe a computer guru can help? It says transferring document, 32 items remaining. It stayed stuck there. I tried hitting refresh, and leaving site, and coming back on. Is it a browser problem? A couple sites give me problems.

Congrats on the work involved in setting up the site. Since i can't get to anything, other then this thread, i will briefly comment. While the projections may be good or bad, we don't know yet, what i'm interested more in, is the means, not the numbers. If you have Walker over Beltran, Burroughs ranked 3rd, why do you want to keep the specifics secret? I can see if it's free. But if your paying customer asks, shouldn't they get a reason? Maybe your projections are right. But if you don't give a reason, the person doesn't know if you used weighted averages, dreamed it, etc? Just my thoughts.

Lets use Burroughs as a example. You have him at 16 hrs. I'm skeptical. In the heavy hitting PCL he hit 8. He hit 7 last year in over 500 abs. Even scouts are skeptical of him ever hitting 20. When i look at his g/f ratios, they aren't condusive to a big hr spike. Have you factored in Petcos huge RF gaps? Perhaps your 16 hrs will be right. I just want to know what you analysis you used on everybody? Good luck on site. You and TF are respected.

PS did you really rate Perez over Hudson? Walker over Beltran, and Sheffield? If you did, the numbers aren't really important, as the reason. Maybe your right. But i, or the customer, wants to know why, or how, you are right.
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Postby LBJackal » Sun Feb 22, 2004 9:07 am

I've been asking all along how he came up with the projections, but to no avail. I'm especially curious as to how he came about 506 AB's for Walker...........and for a lot of people last season's stats were hardly taken into consideration at all. I know one year doesn't make a star, but to assume a big decline for people who have been getting better for the past few seasons (ie: Beltran & Renteria) doesn't make sense.
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Postby Arlo » Sun Feb 22, 2004 10:42 am

First off, hope you're feeling better, Erboes.

Erboes wrote:Arlo, I'm glad you brought up Matsui. Should I not have included him? What are you supposed to do with a player who's never played here before? The best you can do is translate his numbers from Japan the best way you can and -- oh-oh, subjectivity -- rely on scouting reports from his game in Japan and how it will translate to the Majors. It is little different than guessing about minor leaguers and how they'll do in the Majors. You do the best that you can, but it's really all guess work.

No, of course you shouldn't have omitted Matsui. And you're right - translation methods are far from perfect. It's certainly an interesting topic, though, and your results have made me curious, since I'm seeing some things in your projection for Matsui that I haven't seen in any of the methods I've looked at before. In particular, I'm curious about the low K/BB ratio you've arrived at. Is this just subjective, or is there a translation model behind these numbers?
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Postby Tribe-Fan » Sun Feb 22, 2004 10:55 am

HOOTIE wrote:ERBOES and TF, i got to your home page, looks nice. But when i went to the features, it wouldn't load? Maybe a computer guru can help? It says transferring document, 32 items remaining. It stayed stuck there. I tried hitting refresh, and leaving site, and coming back on. Is it a browser problem? A couple sites give me problems.


Hootie,
I don't know what time you tried to check it out, but our web guy was working on the site overnight last night trying to add some of the improvements, and he may have had it locked up running a test. It seems to work fine for me now, so I guess I would suggest trying it again.

Everyone,
We have been getting some great suggestions in here about site navigation and layout, and we are taking them all into consideration. This is after all why we did this experiment, offering a free weekend and announcing it ONLY on the cafe, so we could get feedback. The cafe people are nothing if they are not opinionated.

But we stand behind the numbers. Erboes has asked numerous times for you to just jot down a few projections, and check back later. He has even gone as far as say that if he is wrong, he will call himself an idiot. But on February 22nd, we cannot prove in a court of law what will be true come October. We may sound arrogant about it, but it is really just confidence because we have seen these methods be successful time and again. You won't know that until the end of the season, but we do feel you will see.

I assume most people have read Erboes' post on here the past few months, and maybe even some of mine. I would hope that we come off as being thoughtful and knowledgeable about out information and opinions. I guess we are asking you to consider that a little when judging our numbers now, since our numbers now are un-provable. We are not asking you to bet your house on these numbers, just 8 bucks. That is not much of a gamble you must admit.

Lastly, Larry Walker AB's:

2001:497
2002:477
2003:454

To me, projecting a little upturn to 506 AB's is not out of the question.
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Postby Erboes » Sun Feb 22, 2004 12:05 pm

With Walker, Jackal, 506 AB's are 27 over his three year norms and 9 over what he had two seasons ago. Like I said before, this is insignificant, but if I would have known it was such a major issue I would have dropped it under that magic 500 mark.

I still don't think I have to tell anyone anything about what goes into my projections, Hootie, but you're right, I am trying to build a business here so I have to do stuff to build trust in my product. I will not reveal everything, though, but I will tell of some ways that we are different.

I create the projections from the norms. Well, everybody does that, right? That would be incorrect. Most do not. They start from the prior season's numbers and go from there. Proof? I could go through the Forecaster and spend the rest of the day showing you examples of it and if I had other projections sets in front of me I could do the same.

Let's take Walker for example. His 5 year value average (I use values here only for expediency. In my projections I use cold statistics) has been $29. This value is low due to two injury plaqued seasons (if you'd omit them his value would be in the upper $30's), but since injury has always been a problem for him I don't bump that $29 figure too much, so the figure I come out as his norm is $32 (again, while compiling my projections I was not working with values, just his statistics. This $32 figure was about where my norms for him in statistics would have been translated into values). From there, I factored in other considerations such as age and injury history (along with other factors I am not going to share) to come to his projections.

As proof that other projection sets do not use this method, just how many have come close to this figure? Most I've seen have the range from a few bucks higher or lower than his $17 due mainly to his age. Although age is an issue with him, I argue that his numbers last season were due more to shoulder and knee problems (which he has since had surgery to correct and has shown no ill affects from) then age. I did factor in a slight drop due to age, but I think he has as good of a chance to bettering my projections for him then he does doing worse.

Walker is only one small example. Look at the projections floating around for Abreu, Berkman, C. Jones, and Green. Here are four players whose norms were consistently in the mid-$30's, have off years, and now are projected as mid to upper-$20's players. That's ridiculous. The reverse holds true for players such Halladay, Beltran, C. Lee, etc. They become overvalued because their prior seasons were so good, but in reality you end up paying for these players to repeat a level that is too far above their norms for you to stand a reasonable chance to recoup your investment; hence, a poor value.

Once I've established their norms the easy part is over. Now comes the painstaking process of adding in all the other factors which I refuse to share with anyone beyond the obvious. There are projections out there, usually computer generated, that will give you their norms but they don't go any further. This is where I separate myself from all others (sorry if this seems "pretentious", but this is something I know I excel at), which is figuring out the small fraction of players who have established new norms, either high or low. Here is where I placed Sosa on the low end of the new norm spectrum.

I must also point out that I do not concern myself at any point in the process with values or rankings. It's just a players statistics I work with. When they are finished then and only then are the values and rankings are established according to those numbers. I do not change the values and rankings according to what is perceived as common knowledge, which is why mine seem so different than most. It is not, as Jackal claims, to be different for different's sake. It's just how it all shakes out. I also believe that most projection services are influenced by what is considered accepted values and ranking for players, which is why they all seem pretty much the same. This is also why many people are screaming about ours in my opinion, because they're not based on mainstream conventional thought, but instead strictly by the players' numbers.

This is also why I am vehement in our site and here about "value". When you are looking to draft or buy in an auction, always pick the one who is valued under what his norms and avoid those whose value is higher due to a better than his norm season (with a few exceptions that I've talked about in a prior paragraph). This is the same rule of thumb that tells a perspective purchaser of a business to only buy those that are not maxed out in profits. The best you can do then is maintain that level of profit but the chance for growth is small and the chance for declining profits is great. Underperforming businesses have a potential for growth, which is why it is almost always recommended you target those.

Back to baseball, an example of a maxed out player is Delgado. He's being bought and drafted at prices that assume his norm is last season's numbers. That is untrue. His norms are in the mid-$20's and not the $33 level that he achieved last season. In other words, you are buying him high with a low chance of breaking even let alone turning a profit. On the other side of the aisle is Walker, who's value is so low it's laughable. You can get him him somewhere around $15-$20 and the chance of you turning a nice to great profit are very high (at least in my opinion). The risk is relatively low but the rewards can be very, very, high.

I don't know what else I can add. I really think I gave out too much, but I decided to do it anyway. There's lots of other things that go into them that I don't think anyone else uses, so I will not share them. I don't think anything I do is revolutionary, but it most certainly is underutilized. I hope to be able to prove to everyone that our methods work, but it's impossible to prove it now so I hope you give them time.

Arlo, I am not going to dig into my files now to figure out why I have his walks and K's where they. It's really low on my priority list and I'm sick as a dog and I just want to sleep. I'll get around to it but not now, OK?
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Postby mkooljr1 » Sun Feb 22, 2004 5:59 pm

Since your post was deleted that you said answered my questions, obviously I was unable to read it. Would you be able to PM me with your response? Thanks.
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Postby Erboes » Sun Feb 22, 2004 6:08 pm

mkooljr1 wrote:Since your post was deleted that you said answered my questions, obviously I was unable to read it. Would you be able to PM me with your response? Thanks.


I didn't save it and I'm not going to write it again. It was just a recap on my thinking on Shandler and his projections. Nothing important.
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