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Avoiding Jose Reyes

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Re: Avoiding Jose Reyes

Postby fezzik » Sat Mar 22, 2008 3:44 pm

I've been avoiding him because all three of my leagues this year are 6x6 with OPS as the additional offensive cat...they are also all H2H. Both of these factors devalue steals a bit, the OPS addition moreso.

In a 5x5 roto league (or 4x4 I suppose) I can see him as top 5, but that's about it.

The increase in total players stealing 20+ bases will definitely knock him down a little too, simply because there are more SB's to be had by other players and Reyes' total is a lesser percentage of the total SB's among fantasy-worthy players (I'm assuming that most guys with 20+ steals are fantasy-worthy, but...I didn't do the research here.).

Lastly, and I know all players are one injury away from nonproduction...but because he (and you!) relies so heavily on SB's for his fantasy production, and because 70+ SB's don't grow on trees, if he goes down it's going to be pretty much impossible to fill that void on your team...and if his injury is to his legs, it could be quite a while before he steals again. :-o
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Re: Avoiding Jose Reyes

Postby makewayhomer » Sat Mar 22, 2008 4:18 pm

fezzik wrote:
but because he (and you!) relies so heavily on SB's for his fantasy production, and because 70+ SB's don't grow on trees, if he goes down it's going to be pretty much impossible to fill that void on your team


if someone is impossible to replace, that is exactly what makes them incredibly valuable.
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Re: Avoiding Jose Reyes

Postby fezzik » Sat Mar 22, 2008 4:25 pm

makewayhomer wrote:
fezzik wrote:
but because he (and you!) relies so heavily on SB's for his fantasy production, and because 70+ SB's don't grow on trees, if he goes down it's going to be pretty much impossible to fill that void on your team


if someone is impossible to replace, that is exactly what makes them incredibly valuable.


It's like putting all your eggs in one basket...if you drafted Reyes, you may not have targeted a ton of other SB guys. If he goes down the %SB loss to your team will be huge. IMO A-Rod's stats would be easier to replace than Reyes'...yet A-Rod has more value.
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Re: Avoiding Jose Reyes

Postby Mugrila » Sat Mar 22, 2008 4:27 pm

Some good conversation, exactly what I was hoping for. I am notorious for neglecting SBs, but I still enjoy success and I'm just here to tell you why I don't buy into drafting Reyes over Wright, Holliday, Miggy, Prince, Hanley, etc.

Amazinz wrote:I really don't agree with your premise that people shy away from Crawford. Maybe this is the case and I just don't see it because I recognize Crawford's value and draft accordingly.

I also see it as very doubtful Crawford outperforms Reyes in R or SB. Reyes has scored 120 R two seasons in a row while Crawford has hovered around 90. That's a difference of 30 R and 30 SB (maybe 20 if Reyes pulls back this year, maybe less if Crawford approached 60 again). The power is a wash, AVG and RBI in favor of Crawford however they do not offset the value gained in the R and SB. When it comes to Reyes people tend to focus on the SB but the value of the R is huge.

Bottom line IMHO is that they are close in value. Crawford is a guy who goes late 1st round to early 2nd round. Generally, the difference value-wise between players drafted at the top of the 1st and the top of the 2nd are often pretty slim. I don't think Crawford is being slighted.


My point was less of Crawford slighted, more of Reyes drafted too high for being a similar value. The runs are significant, though like I said I expect the margin to decrease.

makewayhomer wrote:I would pick Reyes #1 in my league, over any other player (granted, we count K's). it's about position scarcity and skill set.

if you don't have him in your top 5, you're simply not weighting steals correctly compared to the other categories. the relationship between steals and home runs is not 1:1. who cares if he only hits 15 hr's? 60 or 70 steals is worth a metric ton

on top of this, he plays a scarce position. the difference between him and Carl Crawford? lol. Crawford plays OF where there are a ton of awesome guys. there are exactly 3 elite ss's


Assuming 5x5, I just think you are much better off with a player who hits 50 hrs than one who'll swipe 70 bases. Take a 30 hr guy in David Wright compared to Reyes. Wright will truly help you in every category. The hrs, rbis, and avg you get from Wright easily offset the extra speed Reyes brings.

As far as the OF vs. SS argument, in a 12 team league you need 12 starting SS, you need 36 OF. If you waited until one of the last rounds to get a SS last year like Renteria or Hardy, you would have gotten simiar production as many 3rd OFs like Victorino, Jason Bay, Delmon Young.
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Re: Avoiding Jose Reyes

Postby makewayhomer » Sat Mar 22, 2008 7:31 pm

fezzik wrote:
makewayhomer wrote:
fezzik wrote:
but because he (and you!) relies so heavily on SB's for his fantasy production, and because 70+ SB's don't grow on trees, if he goes down it's going to be pretty much impossible to fill that void on your team


if someone is impossible to replace, that is exactly what makes them incredibly valuable.


It's like putting all your eggs in one basket...if you drafted Reyes, you may not have targeted a ton of other SB guys. If he goes down the %SB loss to your team will be huge. IMO A-Rod's stats would be easier to replace than Reyes'...yet A-Rod has more value.


you might feel more comfortable thinking that way, but it's wrong.

assuming your league is semi active at all, you can always trade for steals.

most irreplaceable = most valuable
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Re: Avoiding Jose Reyes

Postby fezzik » Sat Mar 22, 2008 7:40 pm

makewayhomer wrote:
fezzik wrote:
makewayhomer wrote:if someone is impossible to replace, that is exactly what makes them incredibly valuable.


It's like putting all your eggs in one basket...if you drafted Reyes, you may not have targeted a ton of other SB guys. If he goes down the %SB loss to your team will be huge. IMO A-Rod's stats would be easier to replace than Reyes'...yet A-Rod has more value.


you might feel more comfortable thinking that way, but it's wrong.

assuming your league is semi active at all, you can always trade for steals.

most irreplaceable = most valuable


Right back at you... ;-D

There is a greater combination of players that could replace A-Rod's stats than Reyes'...are you saying Reyes is more valuable than A-Rod?

We are just thinking about this from two different perspectives...I like mine better. ;-) :-b
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Re: Avoiding Jose Reyes

Postby livinginarizona » Sat Mar 22, 2008 8:16 pm

In http://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy/mlb/news?slug=be-speedometer_031208 the quote that stands out to me most is this one:

The bottom line: because serviceable drag racers are more widely available later in drafts (e.g. Bourn, Davis and Jerry Owens), you can still be very competitive in steals even if you don't land a Jose Reyes, Hanley Ramirez or Carl Crawford somewhere in the first 15 picks.


I am not drafting Reyes because I feel I am better off with a well-balanced team that includes the likes of Willy Taveras (#10), Corey Hart (#27), David Wright (#32), Curtis Granderson (#37), and Howie Kendrick (#38). Guess what? I can play all 5 of these(Taveras in the UTIL slot) and get better stats in the other categories as well (AVG and runs), and there are some on this list(Raj Davis at #14) that are out there on the WW. I strive for a balanced team when playing and while I agree that SS is a position of scarcity, I can still do better in the other categories by bypassing Reyes in the first and going after other players like Trulo, Guillen, etc etc etc. (I've got Guillen on mine).
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Re: Avoiding Jose Reyes

Postby Little Lee » Sat Mar 22, 2008 10:36 pm

I picked at 4 in my draft and could have had Reyes but opted for Wright instead. I'm in a ROTO league and just felt I would get more from Wright offensively.
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Re: Avoiding Jose Reyes

Postby ImTheScientist » Sun Mar 23, 2008 12:50 am

I picked 3rd in a H2H league and took Reyes. He will allow me to dominate the steals category every week. I start out 1-0 every week. ;-D

Your first round pick is not going to make or break your draft. It really depends on how well you draft as a whole. I prefer to get one of the top 3 SS early. Just my preference.
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Re: Avoiding Jose Reyes

Postby AllDay » Mon Mar 24, 2008 4:45 pm

There's reasons to take him between picks 2-5 and reasons to take others 2-5.

A couple of the reasons being touted here however are just ridiculous.

Stupid reason #1 'If he injures his legs, he is worthless'. Yeah, and if A-Rod has a brain aneurysm he becomes worthless as well. So don't draft him top 5.

Stupid reason #2 'You need power in the first round'. It's not like you can draft 40+ HR's in the 5th round by taking Pena or anything. Oh wait, yeah you can.

Not too many of the options you are going to get at any point in the draft are going to total 90 HR's + SB's.
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