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Avoiding Jose Reyes

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Re: Avoiding Jose Reyes

Postby Russell James » Sat Mar 22, 2008 8:26 am

I don't like Reyes, mainly because he is the reason I finished 2nd place in one of my leagues last year. For September I had him on the bench.

He is dominate in SBs and he plays for a great offense so he will score plenty of Runs.

However, Speed is not at a premium like it has been in years past.

He has alot of potential with only being 25?
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Re: Avoiding Jose Reyes

Postby bigh0rt » Sat Mar 22, 2008 9:05 am

Russell James wrote:I don't like Reyes, mainly because he is the reason I finished 2nd place in one of my leagues last year. For September I had him on the bench.

He is dominate in SBs and he plays for a great offense so he will score plenty of Runs.

However, Speed is not at a premium like it has been in years past.

He has alot of potential with only being 25?

Please support this statement.
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Re: Avoiding Jose Reyes

Postby bigpoppalip » Sat Mar 22, 2008 9:54 am

bigh0rt wrote:
Russell James wrote:However, Speed is not at a premium like it has been in years past.

Please support this statement.



I did a quick and dirty totaling of the stolen bases gathered by the top 200 hitters (by R$) each year from 2005-2007, then looked at projected totals from BaseballHQ for the top 200 in 2008.

To bigh0rt's point, there's nothing supporting the idea that SBs are less rare this year.

2005: 1880
2006: 2057
2007: 2150

2008 projected: 2055
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Re: Avoiding Jose Reyes

Postby roninmedia » Sat Mar 22, 2008 10:18 am

http://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy/mlb/new ... ter_031208

Trend of total players who have robbed 20-plus bags per season since 2003.
Code: Select all
Year               Total
2003                 24
2004                 27
2005                 27
2006                 34
2007                 42
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Re: Avoiding Jose Reyes

Postby bigh0rt » Sat Mar 22, 2008 11:02 am

This seems to be the trend in players stealing 30+ as well (see below), although I am still wondering how this devalues a player who steals nearly 80 bases (I understand the argument, I just don't agree).

30+
2007: 19
2006: 19
2005: 13
2004: 12
2003: 11

40+
2007: 8
2006: 11
2005: 7
2004: 5
2003: 6

50+
2007: 6
2006: 5
2005: 4
2004: 2
2003: 3
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Re: Avoiding Jose Reyes

Postby colemwi » Sat Mar 22, 2008 1:24 pm

being a ny'er and having caught almost every Met game I want make the following statement. Reyes stole a lot of bases at times when it wasnt necessary. As a result, he was worn out in the second half. I expect the Mets to be a little smarter with him this year. I am not saying he is not going to run but he will not steal 80 or even 70 bases this year. I expect him to steal 60 with a marked improvement in BA and HR. Listening to a local talk show, Keith Kernandez made the same observation. He said he expects Reyes to run a little less as the Mets were completely embarassed by his second half and the teams ultimate collapse. Expect 60 steals, 18 HRs and a .300 avg. He will not attempt 99 steals like he did last year. Expect his SB/CS to be closer to 65/15. With that being said, I am taking him 4th if he is there in my draft.
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Re: Avoiding Jose Reyes

Postby Mugrila » Sat Mar 22, 2008 2:15 pm

I don't get why people have this mindset that Reyes is easily a first rounder, but at the same time they shy away from Crawford. What's so special about Jose that makes him go 10-15 picks above CC? He may have more SB and R, but Crawford will give you a better avg., RBI, and if the Rays offense starts to shape up this year and in the future, he could shrinking the gap in runs. HRs are a wash, but many believe that Crawford will hit 20 one of these years. I can see why people like Reyes, but in the first round I like to take the best overall #s I can get, and he doesn't have the power to get me to take him. Position scarcity? Honestly, with 3 OF spots compared to just one SS to fill, I don't like that argument. I've been able to grab Tejada late this year, and there are some other solid options and breakout candidates out there.

Reyes can single-handedly the SB category? Also false from my experience. I'd like to compile some more data, but in my leagues last year, nobody with Reyes lead the league in steals or won it all. Now I'm not dumb enough to say that you can't win if you draft Jose, that's absurd. I'm just saying you wouldn't take the more well-rounded player in Crawford that high, why take Jose?

Getting a good team through the draft is all about getting value, and I just don' see Reyes as a top 5 value.
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Re: Avoiding Jose Reyes

Postby Amazinz » Sat Mar 22, 2008 3:19 pm

I really don't agree with your premise that people shy away from Crawford. Maybe this is the case and I just don't see it because I recognize Crawford's value and draft accordingly.

I also see it as very doubtful Crawford outperforms Reyes in R or SB. Reyes has scored 120 R two seasons in a row while Crawford has hovered around 90. That's a difference of 30 R and 30 SB (maybe 20 if Reyes pulls back this year, maybe less if Crawford approached 60 again). The power is a wash, AVG and RBI in favor of Crawford however they do not offset the value gained in the R and SB. When it comes to Reyes people tend to focus on the SB but the value of the R is huge.

Bottom line IMHO is that they are close in value. Crawford is a guy who goes late 1st round to early 2nd round. Generally, the difference value-wise between players drafted at the top of the 1st and the top of the 2nd are often pretty slim. I don't think Crawford is being slighted.
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Re: Avoiding Jose Reyes

Postby makewayhomer » Sat Mar 22, 2008 3:23 pm

I would pick Reyes #1 in my league, over any other player (granted, we count K's). it's about position scarcity and skill set.

if you don't have him in your top 5, you're simply not weighting steals correctly compared to the other categories. the relationship between steals and home runs is not 1:1. who cares if he only hits 15 hr's? 60 or 70 steals is worth a metric ton. 25 steals is worth about 50 home runs. when you draft Reyes think about it as "getting a 125 Home Run guy".

on top of this, he plays a scarce position. the difference between him and Carl Crawford? lol. Crawford plays OF where there are a ton of awesome guys. there are exactly 3 elite ss's. and even if they played the same position Reyes would be worth A LOT more. an extra 25 steals is worth a ton
Last edited by Amazinz on Sat Mar 22, 2008 3:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Edited to remove inappropriate language.
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Re: Avoiding Jose Reyes

Postby jcde7ago » Sat Mar 22, 2008 3:41 pm

makewayhomer wrote:I would pick Reyes #1 in my league, over any other player (granted, we count K's). it's about position scarcity and skill set.

if you don't have him in your top 5, you're simply not weighting steals correctly compared to the other categories. the relationship between steals and home runs is not 1:1. who cares if he only hits 15 hr's? 60 or 70 steals is worth a metric ton

on top of this, he plays a scarce position. the difference between him and Carl Crawford? lol. Crawford plays OF where there are a ton of awesome guys. there are exactly 3 elite ss's


I agree completely with this post, was going to say the same thing ;-D

It's not about Reyes being overvalued or undervalued, overhyped or underhyped. Like most things fantasy baseball, it's pretty much all related to how you are going to be shaping your team through the draft, the league settings, is it a keeper, H2H or roto, etc. Jose Reyes stealing 75+ bases in one season at the shortstop position simply cannot be compared to anyone else. That's it. You have to weigh this as the fact that this is 2 or even 3 seasons worth of stolen bases for MOST other speedsters.

Could you go with Carl Crawford? Sure, but it would be much easier to replace the 10-15 homers you lose with Jose than the 25-30 stolen bases you lose with Crawford, simply because that mediocre-steals-guy you're going to pick up off waivers is going to have a huge disparity in steal attempts that it's not really going to help you any. Sure, Lugo is going to steal around 30, but when you extrapolate that over a 162-game span, and include days with multiple steals, you begin to see how 75+ stolen bases during that same time span is much, much more desirable. IMO building a power lineup after securing a guy like Reyes who's going to lock up the Run and SB category makes much more sense than trying to stack a few players who might potentially each give you 15+ stolen bases. Not only are you sacrificing many categories trying to make up for steals, you're also wasting bench space. Anyways, my 2 cents.
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