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How Spring Training Activity Can Hurt Your Fantasy Team!

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Re: How Spring Training Activity Can Hurt Your Fantasy Team!

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sat Mar 15, 2008 11:00 pm

Yoda wrote:
Even if they do start, I wouldn't draft them. I'll dig up my keeper drafts from the past and rarely do you strike gold with rookie hitters drafted and held. Just looking at 07 for instance, Delmon and Gordon went top 10 in my keeper league. Braun was not drafted and Tulo, due to his slow start, was dropped by the original drafter.

Rookie pitchers are a whole different story. I drafted and held Prior before he even threw his first pro pitch (I was very confident that he would make it) as well as Lincecum last year. I'm targeting several rooks at the draft.


I think the problem is not rookie hitters, but which rookie hitters people grab. I had no problem grabbing Wright and Butler as soon as they came up or drafting Utley. I didn't grab Delmon or Gordon, because I didn't think either was ready. I really would not call Young a bad pick in a keeper league. Even Gordon's performance is hardly a killer bad pick. In a keeper league, you can't even really base your evaluation just on that year.

Braun was not drafted in nearly all leagues because he started in AAA last year. Tulowitzki was grabbed in round 13 of my league and is still with that team. I was hoping he'd fall to later rounds, because I would have grabbed him. Don't know what that says about the leagues we play in. Chris Young (Round 11), James Loney (19), Pedroia (22) all seem to have been good picks. Worst picks I recall from last year were Iwamura, Dukes, Wood and Ianetta.

Compare that to this list of 2007 pitching prospects. Many of them were drafted last year. Other than Lincecum and maybe Gallardo, did any of those guys provide comparable value even to Gordon last year, much less to some of the better hitters?
http://fantasy411.mlblogs.com/mlbcoms_f ... ng_pr.html
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Re: How Spring Training Activity Can Hurt Your Fantasy Team!

Postby Ender » Sat Mar 15, 2008 11:10 pm

jdsun1 wrote:Spring Training Stats from last year right before his breakout season.

PLAYER AVG G AB R H TB 2B 3B HR RBI
B Phillips .350 20 60 9 21 41 3 1 5 10


You can ignore spring training stats completely while the smart fantasy owners move Hamilton and Butler up on their list.


To be honest Phillips didn't really breakout very much last year.

2007 - 26 2B, 30 HR, 32 SB, 33 BB, .288 AVG
2006 adusted to same PA - 34 2B, 21 HR, 30 SB, 42 BB, .276 AVG

Phillips led the league in just enough HR percentage. He had a lucky uptick in HR just barely going over the wall that pumped up his HR some. Yeah he improved slighly but it really was not a big step at all, certainly no more than you'd have expected from simple age related growth.

In most cases I've been posting that info to suggest he is worth a 2nd round pick, people forget he wasn't full time all year in 2006.

Every year guys have hot springs and don't improve much, other guys have crappy springs and are just fine during the season, yet other guys are hot and do improve and others are cold and do slump. The stats just don't carry much meaning other than securing playtime or showing that a player is healthy.

The big positive out of Hamilton is probably that he appears fully healthy and probably has won a full time job.
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Re: How Spring Training Activity Can Hurt Your Fantasy Team!

Postby Yoda » Sun Mar 16, 2008 1:54 am

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
Yoda wrote:
Even if they do start, I wouldn't draft them. I'll dig up my keeper drafts from the past and rarely do you strike gold with rookie hitters drafted and held. Just looking at 07 for instance, Delmon and Gordon went top 10 in my keeper league. Braun was not drafted and Tulo, due to his slow start, was dropped by the original drafter.

Rookie pitchers are a whole different story. I drafted and held Prior before he even threw his first pro pitch (I was very confident that he would make it) as well as Lincecum last year. I'm targeting several rooks at the draft.


I think the problem is not rookie hitters, but which rookie hitters people grab. I had no problem grabbing Wright and Butler as soon as they came up or drafting Utley. I didn't grab Delmon or Gordon, because I didn't think either was ready. I really would not call Young a bad pick in a keeper league. Even Gordon's performance is hardly a killer bad pick. In a keeper league, you can't even really base your evaluation just on that year.

Braun was not drafted in nearly all leagues because he started in AAA last year. Tulowitzki was grabbed in round 13 of my league and is still with that team. I was hoping he'd fall to later rounds, because I would have grabbed him. Don't know what that says about the leagues we play in. Chris Young (Round 11), James Loney (19), Pedroia (22) all seem to have been good picks. Worst picks I recall from last year were Iwamura, Dukes, Wood and Ianetta.

Compare that to this list of 2007 pitching prospects. Many of them were drafted last year. Other than Lincecum and maybe Gallardo, did any of those guys provide comparable value even to Gordon last year, much less to some of the better hitters?
http://fantasy411.mlblogs.com/mlbcoms_f ... ng_pr.html


Well yeah. And I don't think Bruce, Rasmus or Longoria are ready. I want to see those guys dominate AAA pitching before I take a chance on them at the draft. Again, I'm talking about DRAFTING here. There is a huge difference between taking a chance on a rookie hitter at the draft and holding versus picking one up during the season.

I seriously doubt you drafted Wright, Butler, Utley during their rookie seasons before they hit the Majors. You probably grabbed them off waivers. There is a difference.
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Re: How Spring Training Activity Can Hurt Your Fantasy Team!

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sun Mar 16, 2008 7:43 am

Yoda wrote:
Well yeah. And I don't think Bruce, Rasmus or Longoria are ready. I want to see those guys dominate AAA pitching before I take a chance on them at the draft. Again, I'm talking about DRAFTING here. There is a huge difference between taking a chance on a rookie hitter at the draft and holding versus picking one up during the season.

I seriously doubt you drafted Wright, Butler, Utley during their rookie seasons before they hit the Majors. You probably grabbed them off waivers. There is a difference.


We're really talking about multiple things here.

One is just the issue of drafting rookies. I think we probably agree that many people overdo this. But, I generally would say that I have no problem targeting a rookie or two late in the draft (after pick 275), if that rookie has been slated for a starting position. You are right that I did not draft Wright or Butler, because I knew they were starting the year in the minors. Utley, however, I grabbed in the draft.
Look here to see my selection in Round 23: http://baseball.fantasysports.yahoo.com ... aftresults

The second is the issue of rookie hitters versus pitchers. I'm surprised to hear that you seem to think rookie pitchers are easier to target. I'm exactly the opposite. I think it's much harder to tell which rookie pitchers are likely to perform well, and they are much more likely to struggle to adjust or get hurt. Rookie hitters, imo, are fairly predictable based on minor league stats, and well some of them will struggle, eventually they tend to do about as well as expected. Even Gordon come through strong in the second half last year.
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Re: How Spring Training Activity Can Hurt Your Fantasy Team!

Postby Yoda » Sun Mar 16, 2008 11:06 am

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
Yoda wrote:
Well yeah. And I don't think Bruce, Rasmus or Longoria are ready. I want to see those guys dominate AAA pitching before I take a chance on them at the draft. Again, I'm talking about DRAFTING here. There is a huge difference between taking a chance on a rookie hitter at the draft and holding versus picking one up during the season.

I seriously doubt you drafted Wright, Butler, Utley during their rookie seasons before they hit the Majors. You probably grabbed them off waivers. There is a difference.


We're really talking about multiple things here.

One is just the issue of drafting rookies. I think we probably agree that many people overdo this. But, I generally would say that I have no problem targeting a rookie or two late in the draft (after pick 275), if that rookie has been slated for a starting position. You are right that I did not draft Wright or Butler, because I knew they were starting the year in the minors. Utley, however, I grabbed in the draft.
Look here to see my selection in Round 23: http://baseball.fantasysports.yahoo.com ... aftresults

The second is the issue of rookie hitters versus pitchers. I'm surprised to hear that you seem to think rookie pitchers are easier to target. I'm exactly the opposite. I think it's much harder to tell which rookie pitchers are likely to perform well, and they are much more likely to struggle to adjust or get hurt. Rookie hitters, imo, are fairly predictable based on minor league stats, and well some of them will struggle, eventually they tend to do about as well as expected. Even Gordon come through strong in the second half last year.


Your link is broken. If you drafted Utley in 2005, then most leagues did also. Not too many 2B who put up double digit HR/SB in 2004. But again, he already tested and passed MLB pitching in 2003 and 2004. We knew the guy was ready.

2007 Gordon in my two keeper money leagues:
12 team keeper drafted in the 12th round 134th overall
10 team keeper drafted in the 9th round 81st overall

While he came through later in the season, he was well below replacement level for most of the season. Carrying him on your roster in a competitive league with a short bench likely hurt your team most of the season. There were rookies on waivers that performed much better throughout the season: i.e. Ryan Braun. If you strike gold with a rookie position player at the draft and you have the patience to stick with him then all the power to you. I personally won't do it going forward.

Maybe rookie pitchers are just as hard to pick out but I personally have had more success when drafting and holding rookie pitchers than position players.
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Re: How Spring Training Activity Can Hurt Your Fantasy Team!

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sun Mar 16, 2008 4:39 pm

Yoda wrote:Your link is broken. If you drafted Utley in 2005, then most leagues did also. Not too many 2B who put up double digit HR/SB in 2004. But again, he already tested and passed MLB pitching in 2003 and 2004. We knew the guy was ready.

2007 Gordon in my two keeper money leagues:
12 team keeper drafted in the 12th round 134th overall
10 team keeper drafted in the 9th round 81st overall

While he came through later in the season, he was well below replacement level for most of the season. Carrying him on your roster in a competitive league with a short bench likely hurt your team most of the season. There were rookies on waivers that performed much better throughout the season: i.e. Ryan Braun. If you strike gold with a rookie position player at the draft and you have the patience to stick with him then all the power to you. I personally won't do it going forward.

Maybe rookie pitchers are just as hard to pick out but I personally have had more success when drafting and holding rookie pitchers than position players.


No,I drafted Utley at the start of the 2004. At that point he had 134 ABs and had batted .239. Can certainly say he was not tested at that point.

I agree that Gordon was picked too early in those two leagues. As I said, I'm talking about grabbing rookies hitters late--after pick 275--in keeper leagues. At that point, Gordon would have been as good a pick as others, and you get the reserve value of keeping him.
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Re: How Spring Training Activity Can Hurt Your Fantasy Team!

Postby Yoda » Sun Mar 16, 2008 4:51 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
Yoda wrote:Your link is broken. If you drafted Utley in 2005, then most leagues did also. Not too many 2B who put up double digit HR/SB in 2004. But again, he already tested and passed MLB pitching in 2003 and 2004. We knew the guy was ready.

2007 Gordon in my two keeper money leagues:
12 team keeper drafted in the 12th round 134th overall
10 team keeper drafted in the 9th round 81st overall

While he came through later in the season, he was well below replacement level for most of the season. Carrying him on your roster in a competitive league with a short bench likely hurt your team most of the season. There were rookies on waivers that performed much better throughout the season: i.e. Ryan Braun. If you strike gold with a rookie position player at the draft and you have the patience to stick with him then all the power to you. I personally won't do it going forward.

Maybe rookie pitchers are just as hard to pick out but I personally have had more success when drafting and holding rookie pitchers than position players.


No,I drafted Utley at the start of the 2004. At that point he had 134 ABs and had batted .239. Can certainly say he was not tested at that point.

I agree that Gordon was picked too early in those two leagues. As I said, I'm talking about grabbing rookies hitters late--after pick 275--in keeper leagues. At that point, Gordon would have been as good a pick as others, and you get the reserve value of keeping him.


How often do you end up with someone like Utley? Everyone chases that dream of striking rookie gold but it's very rare that you end up with a superstar especially at the draft. Plus you didn't really reap the rewards unless you held onto him into 05.

It wasn't just my league that Gordon was going early. Virtually every league including non-keeper leagues were taking Gordon in the mid rounds of the draft. Maybe the last round might be worth using on a rookie but unless he is on the team and starting and playing well, it is just a wasted pick as he will occupy a valuable roster spot. I personally do not think it is worth it. I'd rather grab a hot bat off waivers rookie or not.
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