I drafted HAMILTON last year in the 25th round of my draft. I saw a HUGE article on him in sports illustrated or somewhere.... I said "hey i'll watch this guy in spring ball and see what he does" He then tore it up last spring and proceeded to have a great year or what would have been a tremendous year barring the injuries and illness....
I think Hamilton will be a nice 3rd OF'er this year when its all said and done I'd take him around the 12th round this year... he's not going to platoon, I'd be very suprised with that texas line up....
Hermida is injury PRONED... hyped every year and every year gets hurt, the hot finish to last year was nice, but will he stay healthy for a full 162? I doubt it
Use spring training to evaluate certain players like Hamiltons, guys vying for jobs, rookies, etc, but you also have to take ICHIRO 1-25 streaks with a grain of salt and know he's not going to ever slump like that in the regular season (knock on wood). Your solid guys who produce every year shouldn't be viewed the same as someone like mentioned above....
You're recommending to shy away from Hermida and Hamilton, while recommending Chase Headley. Didn't you just say not to trust prospects/rookies?
I wrote that info since you were looking at the other guys, I felt you might be looking a rookies. If that was the case, Chase would be someone to look at.
Hey, I don't say "Stay away from rookies" I just don't think it is wise to take them over talent that can help you now. However, once you have a solid core of players and a few decent backups, then there is no reason why you should not go after a top prospect; especially in keeper leagues.
Meh I think for the most part rookies are a crapshoot. Pitchers tend to have more immediate impact and they are easier to pick out. For hitters it is almost not worth wasting a draft pick on unless you are in a deep league even if it is a keeper.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." ~George Carlin
Hermida and Hamilton are being drafted right around each other this year. Choosing between the two, which one would you likely take right now in a draft?[/quote]
id take hamilton first because his power is pretty legit. hermida has yet to put everything all together on the field (although 17 hr last year is pretty nice). hermida has a better chance of hitting .300, hamilton a better chance at hitting 30 hr.[/quote]
I had Hamilton, Hermida, and Headley on my radar before ST started. I had Hamilton and Hermida ranked closely. Now what I'm saying is that with the hot start to ST by Hamilton, I am much more inclined to grab him over Hermida, maybe even a round earlier than before. Surely people aren't going out and drafting Hamilton in the 6th round now and Damon Hollins in the 10th. That would be silly. Even Hamilton still has questions. And thats why he is still drafter later. And that is how ST stats should affect things.
Yoda wrote:Meh I think for the most part rookies are a crapshoot. Pitchers tend to have more immediate impact and they are easier to pick out. For hitters it is almost not worth wasting a draft pick on unless you are in a deep league even if it is a keeper.
I have a different view. I think hitters are much easier to pick out, and you can really advance your team by doing some homework and making a rookie pick.
Over the past 4 years here are some guys I've taken in rounds 17+ in my 16 team keeper league: 2004: Chase Utley 2006: Curtis Granderson 2007: Corey Hart, John Maine, Kelly Johnson
Somewhere late in my draft I always have 1 or 2 picks reserved for a high quality rookie that I have targeted. I also am very aware of guys brought up mid-season. I picked up Butler and Wright that way.
Headley's not on my list this year, thought. A year too soon, imo.
"I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to chase it."
rookies and cream wrote:Who's on your list this year GTWMA?
I'll tell you after my drafts, tomorrow and Monday. My competitors are making it tough. Several of them kept guys I would have targeted.
As you can probably tell from the picks, I generally target 5 category players who have a pretty solid role as a starter. And not all my picks worked out as well as though. 2005 I grabbed Chad Tracy, and he was fine that year, but certainly not the quality of the others.
My biggest regret was making Utley my final cut after the 2004 season. My 10 keepers were strong and I had Soriano, and I just hoped I could regrab Utley. But, he's someone else's now.
"I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to chase it."
Yoda wrote:Meh I think for the most part rookies are a crapshoot. Pitchers tend to have more immediate impact and they are easier to pick out. For hitters it is almost not worth wasting a draft pick on unless you are in a deep league even if it is a keeper.
I have a different view. I think hitters are much easier to pick out, and you can really advance your team by doing some homework and making a rookie pick.
Over the past 4 years here are some guys I've taken in rounds 17+ in my 16 team keeper league: 2004: Chase Utley 2006: Curtis Granderson 2007: Corey Hart, John Maine, Kelly Johnson
Somewhere late in my draft I always have 1 or 2 picks reserved for a high quality rookie that I have targeted. I also am very aware of guys brought up mid-season. I picked up Butler and Wright that way.
Headley's not on my list this year, thought. A year too soon, imo.
Granderson was not technically considered a rookie in 06. Neither were Hart, Maine nor Johnson in 07. They all broke into the league the year before.
I'm talking about guys like Longoria, Bruce, Rasmus, etc. I don't think those guys are worth drafting in standard leagues as their playing time is very uncertain. Are they good to target during the season? Sure if they get playing time and put up respectable numbers.
For 08, in the mid to late rounds, I'm targeting guys like Gordon, Fields, Hermida, Kemp, Butler, Hamilton, Milledge, Ankiel, Theriot, Yunel Escobar, Kouzmanoff, Reynolds, etc as I feel that they have a lot of upside and already proven somewhat that they can handle MLB pitching.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." ~George Carlin
Yoda wrote: Granderson was not technically considered a rookie in 06. Neither were Hart, Maine nor Johnson in 07. They all broke into the league the year before.
I'm talking about guys like Longoria, Bruce, Rasmus, etc. I don't think those guys are worth drafting in standard leagues as their playing time is very uncertain. Are they good to target during the season? Sure if they get playing time and put up respectable numbers.
For 08, in the mid to late rounds, I'm targeting guys like Gordon, Fields, Hermida, Kemp, Butler, Hamilton, Milledge, Ankiel, Theriot, Yunel Escobar, Kouzmanoff, Reynolds, etc as I feel that they have a lot of upside and already proven somewhat that they can handle MLB pitching.
Technically, no, but none of those guys had more than 300 ABs/150IP.
And I would have no reason taking any of the three you mention, IF they are going to be slotted into a starting position for Opening Day. That's the key for me is whether the player's being given a full time role. Longoria, for example, appears to be almost certain to start. If that's the case, he'd be a legit target, imo. I don't think rookies are any more of a crapshoot than any other player, if they have been handed the starting job.
"I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to chase it."
Yoda wrote: Granderson was not technically considered a rookie in 06. Neither were Hart, Maine nor Johnson in 07. They all broke into the league the year before.
I'm talking about guys like Longoria, Bruce, Rasmus, etc. I don't think those guys are worth drafting in standard leagues as their playing time is very uncertain. Are they good to target during the season? Sure if they get playing time and put up respectable numbers.
For 08, in the mid to late rounds, I'm targeting guys like Gordon, Fields, Hermida, Kemp, Butler, Hamilton, Milledge, Ankiel, Theriot, Yunel Escobar, Kouzmanoff, Reynolds, etc as I feel that they have a lot of upside and already proven somewhat that they can handle MLB pitching.
Technically, no, but none of those guys had more than 300 ABs/150IP.
And I would have no reason taking any of the three you mention, IF they are going to be slotted into a starting position for Opening Day. That's the key for me is whether the player's being given a full time role. Longoria, for example, appears to be almost certain to start. If that's the case, he'd be a legit target, imo. I don't think rookies are any more of a crapshoot than any other player, if they have been handed the starting job.
Even if they do start, I wouldn't draft them. I'll dig up my keeper drafts from the past and rarely do you strike gold with rookie hitters drafted and held. Just looking at 07 for instance, Delmon and Gordon went top 10 in my keeper league. Braun was not drafted and Tulo, due to his slow start, was dropped by the original drafter.
Rookie pitchers are a whole different story. I drafted and held Prior before he even threw his first pro pitch (I was very confident that he would make it) as well as Lincecum last year. I'm targeting several rooks at the draft.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." ~George Carlin
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by tribefan08 » Sat Mar 15, 2008 2:11 pm 
